主管单位:中国科学技术协会
主办单位:中国地理学会
承办单位:华东师范大学

世界地理研究 ›› 2017, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (6): 40-48.

• 世界政治与经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国对外贸易的地理格局演化研究--基于1984-2013年中国出口贸易数据的实证分析

殷为华1,吴非2   

  1. 1. 华东师范大学城市与区域科学学院
    2.
  • 收稿日期:2016-07-04 修回日期:2017-10-21 出版日期:2017-12-15 发布日期:2017-12-13
  • 通讯作者: 殷为华
  • 基金资助:

    上海市人民政府决策咨询研究项目《基于上海自贸区的长江经济带对外开放新格局研究》

Study on the Evolutionary Patterns of Geographic Concentration of Chinese Export Trade--based on the empirical analysis of Chinese export data from 1984 to 2013

  • Received:2016-07-04 Revised:2017-10-21 Online:2017-12-15 Published:2017-12-13

摘要: 新常态经济发展背景下,我国出口贸易市场新地理格局正处于深度重构期。根据1984-2013年的中国出口贸易数据,运用地理集中度指数和灰色关联度等方法,分析中国对外贸易地理集中度的演化特征及其影响因素,旨在促进新时期我国出口贸易政策的创新实践。研究发现,中国出口贸易地理集中指数总体呈下降趋势;三个重要演化阶段存在差异化的主导影响因素;劳动人口结构和出口商品价格指数成为两大长期性影响因素;近十年人民币汇率的灰色关联序呈现不断提高趋势。

Abstract: Against the background of ‘New Normal’ economic development in China,there has been the deep restructuring of geographic patterns of Chinese export. Using Chinese export data for international trade,the paper examines the evolutionary characteristics and major factors of geographic concentration of Chinese export trade from 1984 to 2013 through analyzing its index of geographic concentration and the degree of grey correlation, aiming to promote the innovation of China international trade policy for the future. The result indicates that the index of geographic concentration of Chinese export is continually declining. However, there are very different factors influencing the geographic concentration of Chinese export during three stages. Especially, the structure of labour force and the export price index have been more important than other factors in the long term. It is also noticeable that the grey correlation of RMB exchange rate is increasingly growing over the past ten years.

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