1996—2015年非洲人口扩张区域类型划分与区域演变分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2021.04.2020116

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

采用总人口和劳动力等直接指标单独测度，结合出生率、死亡率、少年系数和老年系数等指标进行综合测度，分析1996—2015年非洲51个国家（地区）人口扩张区的数量变化、空间分布及演化特征，并对比了不同测度指标和方法之间的差异。发现：①总人口扩张区的比重虽高，但扩张程度有所放缓，地域分布整体呈现“南北弱、中部强”的特征，其在东非地区缩减明显；②劳动力扩张区较总人口扩张区扩张程度更为明显，两者在北非和南非部分地区差异较大，其地域分布整体呈现“北退南进”的变化过程；③“劳动力增长率大于总人口增长率”地区比重高于“总人口增长率大于劳动力增长率”，且差距有不断拉大的趋势，前者以北非地区西北部、西非地区几内亚湾沿岸较为集中，后者主要集中分布在中非、东非与西非部分地区；④基于综合指标结果显示，重度扩张型占有较高的比重，中度扩张型增速较快，轻度扩张型占比呈波动下降；⑤综合指标与单一指标结果有一定的趋同性，但区别也比较明显，综合指标在综合性、前瞻性方面有一定优势。

关键词: 人口扩张, 人口变化, 劳动力变化, 非洲

Abstract:

Basing on the spatial population data during 1996-2015, we applied both the single indicators, including total population and labor, and the integrated indicator including not only total population and labor but also natality, mortality, youth and aging, to analyze the changes of population expansion units in number and spatial distribution, and compared the differences in the measurement indicators. The research showed that:1)The total population expansion areas have a large proportion, however, the degree of expansion is dropping off; The distribution of total population expansion areas in Africa shows that the North and the South are weaker than the middle part; There are the significant reduction in East Africa.2)In comparison with The total population expansion areas, the labor expansion areas are more obvious, which are totally different in North Africa and South Africa;3)The areas ,in which labor growth rate higher than total population growth rate, have a large proportion than that is not. The former have a sharp distinctness in North-West Africa and Guinea Bay Coast; The latter are distributed in Central, East and West Africa;4)The integrated indicator was more effective in evaluating the comprehensive status of population development. Severe expansion areas have higher proportion, and Moderate expansion areas expand rapidly. Mild expansion areas shrink volatility during 1996-2015.5) The results based the integrated indicator are similar partly to that of the single indicators. The integrated indicator has some advantages in comprehensiveness and foresight.

Key words: population expansion, regional population change, labor change, Africa

蒋大亮, 任航, 刘柄麟, 蒋生楠, 张振克. 1996—2015年非洲人口扩张区域类型划分与区域演变分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2021, 30(4): 851-863.

Daliang JIANG, Hang REN, Binglin LIU, Shengnan JIANG, Zhenke ZHANG. Temporal-spatial pattern of regional population expansion in Africa in 1990-2015[J]. World Regional Studies, 2021, 30(4): 851-863.

图/表 10

参考文献 25

1	谷国锋,吴英哲. 吉林省人口年龄结构变化对区域经济影响研究. 经济地理,2019,39(1):47-55.
	Gu G, Wu Y. The impact of population age structure change on regional economy. Economic Geography,2019,39(1):47-55.
2	王超,阚瑷珂,曾业隆,等.基于随机森林模型的西藏人口分布格局及影响因素. 地理学报,2019,74(4):664-680.
	Wang C, Kan A, Zeng Y, et al. Population distribution pattern and influencing factors in Tibet based on random forest model. Acta Geographica Sinica,2019,74(4):664-680.
3	刘振,齐宏纲,戚伟,等. 1990-2010年中国人口收缩区分布的时空格局演变—基于不同测度指标的分析. 地理科学,2019,39(10):1525-1536.
	Liu Z, Qi H, Qi W, et al. Temporal-spatial pattern of regional population shrinkagen in China in 1990- 2010. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2019,39(10):1525-1536.
4	尹德挺,袁尚. 新中国70年来人口分布变迁研究——基于"胡焕庸线"的空间定量分析. 中国人口科学,2019(05):15-28.
	Yin D, Yuan S. A study on 70 years'change of China's population distribution:A spatial quantitative analysis based on Hu's Line. Chinese Journal of Population Science, 2019(05):15-28.
5	刘群,王咏笑,王梦珂. 上海市常住人口增长趋势研究:基于劳动年龄人口的情景模拟. 世界地理研究,2016,25(03):88-98.
	Liu Q, Wang Y,Wang M. Estimation of resident population in Shanghai based on working-age population scenario simulation. World Regional Studies, 2016,25(3):88-98.
6	王玉波. 土地财政与城市用地规模及人口增长联动关系区域差异.经济地理,2019,39(10)172-182.[Wang Y. Regional difference of linkage between land finance and urban land scale and population growth economic geography,2019,39(10):172-182.]
7	刘芳,钟太洋. 城市人口规模、空间扩张与人均公共财政支出——基于全国285个城市面板数据分析. 地域研究与开发,2019,38(02):61-65.
	Liu F,Zhong T.Urban population size,spatial expansion and per capita public finance expenditure: An analysis based on panel data for 285 cities in China. Aral Research and Development, 2019,38(02):61-65.
8	杨艳昭,封志明,赵延德,等. 中国城市土地扩张与人口增长协调性研究. 地理研究,2013,32(09):1668-1678.
	Yang Y,Feng Z,Zhao Y, et al.Coordination between urban land expansion and population growth in China.Geographical Research, 2013,32(09):1668-1678.
9	李国平,罗心然. 京津冀地区人口与经济协调发展关系研究. 地理科学进展,2017,36(01):25-33.
	Li G,Luo X. Coordinated development between population and economy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Progress in Geography,2017,36(01):25-33.
10	Eastwood Robert, Lipton Michael.Demographic transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: How big will the economic dividend be?.Population Studies,2011,65(1):1-21.
11	Makiwane Monde, Kwizera Stella.Youth and well-being: A South African case study.Social Indicators Research,2009,91(2):223-242.
12	辜胜阻. 试析非洲人口的高速增长.人口研究,1985(01):56-58.
	Gu S.A research on high population growth in Africa.Population Research,1985(01):56-58.
13	李起陵,苏泽玉. 非洲的人口压力和人口政策.西亚非洲,1992(03):60-64.
	Li Q,Su Z. Population pressures and population policies in Africa.Wast Asia And Africa,1992(03):60-64.
14	张善余,彭际作. 世纪之交的非洲人口形势. 西亚非洲,2005(03):15-20.
	Zhang S,Peng J. African population situation in the transition into the 21st Century. Wast Asia And Africa,2005(03):15-20.
15	舒运国. 非洲人口史研究评析——人口数量研究的进展.上海师范大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2017,46(04):137-144.
	Shu Y.A survey of research on African population history—Developments in research on population size. Journal of Shanghai Normal University,2017,46(04):137-144.
16	Yearbook A S.African development bank.Tunisia:African Union Commission,United Nation Economic Commission for Africa,2017:26-98.
17	Carmody P R, Taylor I. Flexigemony and force in China's resource diplomacy in Africa: Sudan and Zambia compared. Geopolitics, 2010, 15(3): 496-515.
18	Grimm S, Hackenesch C. China in Africa: What challenges for a reforming European Union development policy?Illustrations from country cases. Development Policy Review,2017,35(4): 549-566
19	Campbell H. China in Africa: Challenging US global hegemony. Third World Quarterly,2008,29(1): 89-105.
20	Giese K, Thiel A. Chinese factor in the space,place and agency of female head porters in urban Chana. Social &Cultural Geography,2015,16(4): 444-464.
21	Mawdsley E. Fu Manchu versus Dr Livingstone in the dark continent?Representing China, Africa and the West in British broadsheet newspapers. Political Geography,2008,27(5): 509-529
22	Wang L,Feng Z,Yang Y. The change in population density from 2000 to 2010 and its influencing factors in China at the county scale. Journal of Geographical Sciences2015,25(4):485-496.
23	秦大河,张国友,宋长青,等.今天的中国为什么比任何时候都需要世界地理学.世界地理研究,2020,29(1):1-7.
	Qin D,Zhang G,Song C,et al. Why does China today need world geography more than ever. World Regional Studies, 2020,29(1):1-7.
24	Clark R L, Ogawa N, M Kondoet al. Population decline, labor force stability, and the future of the Japanese economy. European Journal of Population,2010,26(2): 207-227.
25	潘竟虎,赖建波. 中国城市间人口流动空间格局的网络分析—以国庆-中秋长假和腾讯迁徙数据为例.地理研究,2019,38(7):1678-1693.
	Pan J, Lai J. Research on spatial pattern of population mobility among cities:Acase study of "Tencent Migration" big data in "National Day–Mid-Autumn Festival" vacation. Geographical Research, 2019,38(7):1678-1693.

参数	1996—2000年	2001—2005年	2006—2010年	2011—2015年	权重平均值
总人口变化率	0.156	0.079	0.076	0.097	0.102
劳动力变化率	0.133	0.100	0.085	0.077	0.099
出生率变化	0.076	0.092	0.153	0.101	0.106
死亡率变化	0.126	0.097	0.148	0.156	0.132
出生率期末值	0.107	0.113	0.096	0.098	0.103
死亡率期末值	0.099	0.140	0.137	0.140	0.129
老年系数变化	0.075	0.115	0.064	0.054	0.077
少年系数变化	0.080	0.089	0.066	0.116	0.088
老年系数期末值	0.075	0.078	0.080	0.067	0.075
少年系数期末值	0.072	0.095	0.096	0.095	0.090

参数	1996—2000年	2001—2005年	2006—2010年	2011—2015年	权重平均值
总人口变化率	0.156	0.079	0.076	0.097	0.102
劳动力变化率	0.133	0.100	0.085	0.077	0.099
出生率变化	0.076	0.092	0.153	0.101	0.106
死亡率变化	0.126	0.097	0.148	0.156	0.132
出生率期末值	0.107	0.113	0.096	0.098	0.103
死亡率期末值	0.099	0.140	0.137	0.140	0.129
老年系数变化	0.075	0.115	0.064	0.054	0.077
少年系数变化	0.080	0.089	0.066	0.116	0.088
老年系数期末值	0.075	0.078	0.080	0.067	0.075
少年系数期末值	0.072	0.095	0.096	0.095	0.090

人口增长率	1996—2000年		2001—2005年		2006—2010年		2011—2015年
人口增长率	频数	占比	频数	占比	频数	占比	频数	占比
0-5%	3	5.88%	4	7.84%	6	11.76%	2	3.92%
5%-10%	17	33.33%	17	33.33%	13	25.49%	19	37.25%
10%-15%	25	49.02%	24	47.06%	28	54.90%	28	54.90%
>15%	6	11.76%	5	9.80%	3	5.88%	1	1.96%
小计	51	100.00%	50	98.04%	50	98.04%	50	98.04%

人口增长率	1996—2000年		2001—2005年		2006—2010年		2011—2015年
人口增长率	频数	占比	频数	占比	频数	占比	频数	占比
0-5%	3	5.88%	4	7.84%	6	11.76%	2	3.92%
5%-10%	17	33.33%	17	33.33%	13	25.49%	19	37.25%
10%-15%	25	49.02%	24	47.06%	28	54.90%	28	54.90%
>15%	6	11.76%	5	9.80%	3	5.88%	1	1.96%
小计	51	100.00%	50	98.04%	50	98.04%	50	98.04%

劳动力增长率	1996—2000年		2001—2005年		2006—2010年		2011—2015年
劳动力增长率	频数	占比	频数	占比	频数	占比	频数	频数
0 ~ 5%	3	5.88%	4	7.84%	5	9.80%	0	0.00%
5% ~ 10%	9	17.65%	11	21.57%	9	17.65%	10	19.61%
10% ~ 15%	31	60.78%	22	43.14%	26	50.98%	35	68.63%
>15	8	15.69%	13	25.49%	10	19.61%	5	9.80%
小计	51	100.00%	50	98.04%	50	98.04%	50	98.04%