长三角城市经济增长与资源环境压力的脱钩效应

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2022.03.2020491

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

实现资源环境压力与经济增长的有效脱钩是经济、资源、环境、社会、人口等要素协调可持续发展的重要途径。在构建资源环境压力评价指标体系的基础上，运用脱钩理论、结构分解模型分析2000—2017年长三角地区城市经济增长与资源环境压力脱钩关系及驱动效应，以期促进长三角区域一体化发展与生态文明建设进程。研究发现：①长三角城市经济增长整体尚未完全摆脱“自然消耗增加型”模式，且区域内部城市差异较大，大部分发达城市人均资源环境压力持续降低，其它城市资源环境压力仍随经济增长而加剧；②随着时间的延续，整体上大部分城市的经济增长速度快于资源环境压力增速，全区以弱脱钩类型占绝对优势，强脱钩区域范围先扩大后缩小，中心地区的城市实现了良好的脱钩状态，仅少数边缘地市资源环境压力依然呈现较快增长趋势，未实现有效脱钩；③结构分解模型表明经济增长效应是资源环境压力增加的直接效应，且边缘欠发达城市的经济驱动效应强于核心发达城市，而经济发达城市的人口驱动效应高于欠发达城市，技术效应驱动了资源环境压力的明显下降，总体呈现出南高北低的分布格局。

关键词: 资源环境压力, 经济增长, 脱钩, 驱动效应, 长三角地区

Abstract:

To realize effective decoupling between resource and environment pressure and economic growth is an important way to achieve coordinated and sustainable development of economy, resources, environment, society, population and other factors. In order to promote the Yangtze River Delta regional integration and ecological civilization construction process, this study based on the regional sustainable development theory and practice to build the evaluation index system of resources and environment pressure, and to study the decoupling relationship and driving effect between urban economic growth and resource and environmental pressure by using decoupling theory, structural decomposition analysis model from 2000 to 2017 in the Yangtze River Delta region. The findings are as follows : First, the economic growth of cities in the Yangtze river delta had not completely gotten rid of the pattern of "increasing natural consumption" with a big difference between cities within the region on the whole. Most developed cities continued a continuous decrease in the per capita pressure on resources and environment, while the other cities intensified along with economic growth. Second, the economic growth rate of most city were faster than that of resources and environment pressure. The region was dominated by the weak decoupling type, while the strong decoupling area was first expanded and then reduced. The cities in the central region had achieved a good decoupling state, but only a few marginal cities still showed a rapid growth trend of resource and environment pressure with less effective decoupling. Finally, judging from the driving effect of the decoupling of resources and environment, the economic growth effect was the direct effect of the increase of resource and environmental pressure, which was manifested in the fact that marginal underdeveloped cities were stronger than core developed cities. However, the population effect level of economically developed cities were higher than that of underdeveloped cities. The technical effect was mainly driven by negative effects that drove the direct decline of resource and environmental pressures with the pattern of "high in the south and low in the north" in the studied region.

Key words: resource and environmental pressure, economic growth, decoupling, driving effect, Yangtze Delta region

胡美娟, 孙萍, 李在军, 侯兵. 长三角城市经济增长与资源环境压力的脱钩效应[J]. 世界地理研究, 2022, 31(3): 538-548.

Meijuan HU, Ping SUN, Zaijun LI, Bing HOU. Decoupling effect of economic growth and resource environment in the Yangtze River Delta[J]. World Regional Studies, 2022, 31(3): 538-548.

图/表 7

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脱钩状态		压力增长率	经济增长率	脱钩指数	可持续类型
脱钩	强脱钩	-	+	DI<0	强可持续
	衰弱脱钩	-	-	DI>1.2	弱可持续
	弱脱钩	+	+	0<DI<0.8	弱可持续
连接	扩张连接	+	+	0.8<DI<1.2	不可持续
连接	衰退连接	-	-	0.8<DI<1.2	不可持续
负脱钩	扩张负脱钩	+	+	DI>1.2	不可持续
	强负脱钩	+	-	DI<0	不可持续
	弱负脱钩	-	-	0<DI<0.8	不可持续

脱钩状态		压力增长率	经济增长率	脱钩指数	可持续类型
脱钩	强脱钩	-	+	DI<0	强可持续
	衰弱脱钩	-	-	DI>1.2	弱可持续
	弱脱钩	+	+	0<DI<0.8	弱可持续
连接	扩张连接	+	+	0.8<DI<1.2	不可持续
连接	衰退连接	-	-	0.8<DI<1.2	不可持续
负脱钩	扩张负脱钩	+	+	DI>1.2	不可持续
	强负脱钩	+	-	DI<0	不可持续
	弱负脱钩	-	-	0<DI<0.8	不可持续

目标层	准则层	指标层/ 单位
城市资源环境压力评价	资源消耗	建成区面积/ km²
		水资源消耗量/ 万吨
		能源消耗量/ 万吨标准煤
	环境污染	工业废水排放量/ 万吨
		工业废气排放量/ 亿标m³
		工业固废量/ 万吨
		城市生活污水排放量/ 万吨

目标层	准则层	指标层/ 单位
城市资源环境压力评价	资源消耗	建成区面积/ km²
		水资源消耗量/ 万吨
		能源消耗量/ 万吨标准煤
	环境污染	工业废水排放量/ 万吨
		工业废气排放量/ 亿标m³
		工业固废量/ 万吨
		城市生活污水排放量/ 万吨

城市	绝对贡献率/%			城市	绝对贡献率/%
城市	人口效应	经济效应	技术效应	城市	人口效应	经济效应	技术效应
上海市	30.02	51.07	18.91	舟山市	0.01	88.39	11.59
南京市	9.81	43.22	46.97	丽水市	0.92	83.13	15.95
无锡市	9.64	56.90	33.46	衢州市	0.39	58.90	40.70
苏州市	1.37	81.73	16.90	合肥市	50.04	40.48	9.48
常州市	5.32	52.18	42.50	芜湖市	51.38	31.59	17.04
徐州市	0.20	86.39	13.41	马鞍山市	52.57	30.40	17.03
南通市	0.06	91.82	8.12	滁州市	0.56	98.74	0.69
镇江市	1.99	67.25	30.76	铜陵市	0.51	91.42	8.07
扬州市	0.06	87.71	12.24	安庆市	2.27	55.99	41.74
盐城市	0.39	97.07	2.54	池州市	0.37	98.61	1.02
泰州市	0.09	69.15	30.76	宣城市	0.08	97.18	2.74
宿迁市	0.24	97.34	2.42	阜阳市	0.57	29.65	69.78
淮安市	0.18	96.36	3.46	蚌埠市	0.47	90.00	9.53
连云港市	0.12	95.43	4.45	淮北市	1.52	88.54	9.94
杭州市	5.86	31.98	62.16	亳州市	0.35	95.49	4.15
宁波市	0.89	60.32	38.79	淮南市	22.10	71.78	6.12
嘉兴市	0.14	84.36	15.50	六安市	9.73	89.92	0.35
湖州市	0.18	80.76	19.06	黄山市	0.90	97.84	1.26
绍兴市	0.11	85.76	14.13	宿州市	0.96	96.52	2.51
金华市	0.32	28.82	70.86	江苏均值	2.27	78.66	19.08
台州市	1.61	82.19	16.20	浙江均值	1.17	68.84	30.00
温州市	2.38	72.61	25.01	安徽均值	12.15	75.26	12.59