主管单位：中国科学技术协会
主办单位：中国地理学会
承办单位：华东师范大学
世界地理研究

世界地理研究 ›› 2022, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (4): 748-761.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2022.04.20220022

• 南海政治经济地理 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于改进鹰鸽模型的南沙群岛岛礁争端及其影响因素分析

张家强1,2(), 蒋雪中1,2,3()   

  1. 1.华东师范大学城市与区域科学学院，上海 200241
    2.华东师范大学全球创新与发展研究院，上海 200062
    3.南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室（广州），广州 511458
  • 收稿日期:2022-01-05 修回日期:2022-05-03 出版日期:2022-07-15 发布日期:2022-07-24
  • 通讯作者: 蒋雪中
  • 作者简介:张家强（1998-），男，硕士，研究方向为世界地理与地缘政治，E-mail： 18051367812@163.com。
  • 基金资助:
    南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室（广州）人才团队引进重大专项(GML2019ZD0601)

Analysis on the disputes over islands and reefs in the Nansha Islands and its influencing factors based on an improved Hawk-Dove model

Jiaqiang ZHANG1,2(), Xuezhong JIANG1,2,3()   

  1. 1.School of Urban & Regional Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
    2.Institute for Global Innovation & Development, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
    3.Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou), Guangzhou 511458, China
  • Received:2022-01-05 Revised:2022-05-03 Online:2022-07-15 Published:2022-07-24
  • Contact: Xuezhong JIANG

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摘要：

南海地区岛礁的争端博弈影响国家安全和地区发展，基于改进的鹰鸽模型，综合地理因素和国家的对抗偏好对南沙群岛岛礁争端的博弈情况进行分析。结果表明：①南沙群岛北部海域岛礁的平均地理价值和竞争激烈程度较高，中国、越南和菲律宾在此区域均有控制岛礁且国家之间地缘位势的非对称性接近，未来可能成为权益争端的热点区域；②中国和声索国选择合作的概率受岛礁地理价值、国家在岛礁的地缘位势、冲突成本以及对抗偏好共同影响，地理价值、对抗偏好与选择合作的概率呈负相关；冲突成本与选择合作的概率呈正相关；国家在岛礁的地缘位势接近时，选择合作的概率最小；随着地缘位势差距增大，非对称性增强，选择合作的概率上升；③在南沙岛礁争端中，中国与马来西亚合作概率较大，与越南合作不稳定，与菲律宾合作概率最小。

关键词: 南沙岛礁, 地理价值, 地缘位势, 鹰鸽模型, 对抗偏好

Abstract:

The dispute game of islands and reefs in the South China Sea affects national security and regional development.Based on an improved Hawk-Dove model, comprehensive geographic factors and national antagonistic preferences were used to analyze the game trends of island and reef disputes in the Nansha Islands.Results showed that: (1) the islands and reefs in the northern part of the Nansha Islands have high average geographic value and competition intensity. China, Vietnam and the Philippines all control the islands and reefs in this area, and the asymmetry of geo-potential between three countries is close.This area may become a hot spot for rights disputes in the future.(2) The probability of cooperation between China and the claimant countries is affected by geographic value of islands and reefs, country's geo-potential, conflict costs, and the states' antagonistic preferences.Geographic value and the states' antagonistic preferences are negatively correlated with the probability of cooperation; conflict cost is positively correlated with probability of cooperation.When the geo-potential of countries on islands and reefs is close, the probability of cooperation is the smallest; as the gap of geo-potential increases, asymmetry increases, the probability of cooperation finally increases.(3) In the dispute over Nansha islands and reefs, China and Malaysia have the highest probability of cooperation, but the cooperation with Vietnam is unstable, and the cooperation with Philippines is the smallest.

Key words: Islands and reefs in Nansha Islands, geographic value, geo-potential, Hawk-Dove model, antagonistic preference