黑龙江省内部中长期城镇人口迁移行为分析与建模

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2022.05.2020528

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

人口迁移的时空分异与影响机制一直是人口学研究关注的焦点。本文基于社保关系转移视角，从时间和空间两个维度探究黑龙江省城镇工作人口省内的中长期迁移规律与时空分异特征，并且结合人口推拉理论与OD模型，综合考虑经济和就业政策因素，建立了能够反映以社保劳动关系转移为基础的中长期人口迁移动力学模型。研究结果表明：基于社保关系的城镇工作人口迁移符合截断指数幂律分布，呈现列维飞行特点；该省省内人口迁出呈现多层级跨区域分布格局，人口迁入呈现“四核心-环东南”格局，人口迁入与迁出空间格局具有一定程度的类似性；黑龙江省边境城市人口流失情况较为严重；城镇职工迁移行为的无序性不断加大，迁移的频率较高；但是经过通过模拟，该省城镇职工的迁移系统趋向于平衡发展。

关键词: 社保关系, 城镇人口, 迁移, 推拉理论, 结构熵, 大数据

Abstract:

The spatial and temporal differentiation and impact mechanism of population migration has always been the focus of population research, and the research at home and abroad is mainly based on short-term population migration such as communication and commuting. From the perspective of social security relations transfer, this paper explores the characteristics of the medium and long-term migration and spatial and temporal differentiation of urban working population in Heilongjiang Province. Combined with the population push and pull theory and OD model, taking into account the economic and employment policy factors, a long-term population migration dynamics model is established to reflect the social security labor relations in this paper. The theoretical contributions of this paper are mainly reflected as follows: firstly, The temporal and spatial migration of population based on social security relations supplements and enriches the research content of medium and long-term population migration. Secondly, This article takes urban employees as the research object, considering economic, policy, transportation, geography, and time effects, and focuses on the migration mechanism of urban labor within the region, enriching the research on labor-related migration theory. Finally, This article uses social security big data to study the spatial flow of population, expands the existing literature based on census data research, and enriches relevant empirical research on population mobility.The researches indicate: firstly, the migration of urban working population based on social security relations is consistent with the power-law distribution of the cutoff index, showing the characteristics of Levi's flight. Secondly, population migration shows a multi-level and cross-regional distribution pattern. Thirdly, there is a certain degree of similarity in space between the population migration and relocation. Fourthly, the disorder of the migration of urban workers is increasing and the frequency of migration is higher and higher. Finally, through the simulation, the migration system of urban workers tends to a balance development.

Key words: social security relations, urban population, migration, push and pull theory, structural entropy

王宁宁, 赵晓永. 黑龙江省内部中长期城镇人口迁移行为分析与建模[J]. 世界地理研究, 2022, 31(5): 1096-1107.

Ningning WANG, Xiaoyong ZHAO. Analysis and modeling of the long-term population migration from the perspective of social security relations transfer[J]. World Regional Studies, 2022, 31(5): 1096-1107.

图/表 7

图1 人口迁移的幂律分布情况注：a为数据集D1迁移距离分布，b为数据集D2迁移距离分布，c为对数处理后数据集D1迁移距离分布，d为对数处理后数据集D2迁移距离分布。

Fig.1 Power law distribution of population migration

图2 人口迁移拟合曲线注：a为基于幂函数的拟合，b为基于指数函数的拟合。

Fig.2 Population migration curvef(x)=(x+x0)-βe(-x/k) （2）

图3 黑龙江省人口迁出网络（a）和迁入网络（b）

Fig.3 Population emigration（a） and immigration（b） network of Heilongjiang Province

图4 黑龙江省人口迁出（a）与迁入（b）格局

Fig.4 Population emmigration（a） and immigration（b） pattern of Heilongjiang Province

图5 黑龙江省人口迁移势（a）和活跃度（b）分布

Fig.5 Regional distribution of population migration difference （a） and liveness （b） of Heilongjiang Province

图6 不同时步人口实际迁移与模拟迁移趋势对比

Fig.6 Comparison of trends between actual migration and simulated migration at different time steps

图7 2019年哈尔滨市模拟迁出网络（a）和迁入网络（b）

Fig.7 Simulated emigration（a） and immigration（b） networknetwork in Harbin in 2019

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