1961—2019年阿富汗土地资源承载力变化研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.02.20220315

世界地理研究 ›› 2024, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (2): 53-63.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.02.20220315

1961—2019年阿富汗土地资源承载力变化研究

查思含¹(), 马玮哲¹, 王思嘉¹, 张丹²(), 胡起源¹, 高翔¹, 伦飞¹, 何露³

^1.中国农业大学土地科学与技术学院，北京 100193
^2.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所，北京 100101
^3.中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与自然保护研究所，北京 100091

收稿日期:2022-05-01 修回日期:2022-09-26 出版日期:2024-02-15 发布日期:2024-02-29
通讯作者: 张丹
作者简介:查思含（1999—），女，硕士研究生，研究方向为土地资源与人类福祉，E-mail： zhasihan@cau.edu.cn。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41801202);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项（A类）(XDA20030302)

The trend of land resources carrying capacity in Afghanistan from 1961 to 2019: Based on the dietary nutrient equivalent

Sihan ZHA¹(), Weizhe MA¹, Sijia WANG¹, Dan ZHANG²(), Qiyuan HU¹, Xiang GAO¹, Fei LUN¹, Lu HE³

^1.College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
^2.Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
^3.Ecology and Nature Conservation Institute, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China

Received:2022-05-01 Revised:2022-09-26 Online:2024-02-15 Published:2024-02-29
Contact: Dan ZHANG

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为了我国周边安全和“一带一路”倡议的顺利推进，应充分认识阿富汗地区的粮食安全问题及土地承载力演变情况。本研究从膳食营养需求的角度出发，通过构建土地资源承载力评价模型，研究了近六十年来阿富汗地区土地资源承载力变化情况，并根据未来不同情景，探讨了阿富汗地区土地资源承载力的优化路径。结果表明：随着膳食营养需求和人口的增加，阿富汗地区土地资源已无法满足本国居民的消费需求，土地资源承载压力逐渐增加，已经由基本平衡阶段（1961—1978）和态势趋紧阶段（1979—1998），演变为人地矛盾突出阶段（1999—2019）。从三种膳食营养当量（热量、蛋白质和脂肪）来看，阿富汗地区土地资源均处于超载状态，其中基于脂肪需求的土地资源承载压力最大。为了满足当地食物消费需求增长和土地资源的可持续发展，阿富汗当局一方面应大力推行“毒改粮”政策并提高土地生产力，另一方面也应当积极引导合适健康饮食。此外，本文还探讨了影响阿富汗土地资源承载力的主要因素，以期为进一步缓解与改善阿富汗地区粮食安全问题及其人地关系提供参考。

关键词: 土地资源承载力, 阿富汗, 膳食营养, 粮食安全, 情景分析

Abstract:

In order to protect region security around China and promote "the Belt and Road" initiative, it is of high importance to fully understand food security and land resources carrying capacity (LCC) in Afghanistan. From the perspective of dietary nutrition demand, we studied the LCC change in Afghanistan in recent 60 years, with our established evaluation models. We also discussed the optimization path in future, considering different production and consumption scenarios. We concluded that local land resources have been unable to meet the total demands for food in Afghanistan, due to larger population and higher dietary nutrition demands; thus, local land carrying pressure has changed from the basic balance stage (1961-1978) and the tightening stage (1979-1998) to the prominent stage of human land contradiction (1999-2019). Considering three dietary nutrient equivalents of calories, protein and fat, all their land carrying capacity is overloaded in Afghanistan, with the greatest pressure from fat demands. In order to meet local food consumption growth and land sustainable development, local authorities should implement the "drug to food" policy and also improve land productivity, while suitable food dietary is also important for health and land management. Besides, we also discussed main drivers on LCC in Afghanistan, which aim to further alleviate local food security and better human-land relationship.

Key words: land resources carrying capacity, Afghanistan, dietary nutrition, food security, scenario analysis

查思含, 马玮哲, 王思嘉, 张丹, 胡起源, 高翔, 伦飞, 何露. 1961—2019年阿富汗土地资源承载力变化研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(2): 53-63.

Sihan ZHA, Weizhe MA, Sijia WANG, Dan ZHANG, Qiyuan HU, Xiang GAO, Fei LUN, Lu HE. The trend of land resources carrying capacity in Afghanistan from 1961 to 2019: Based on the dietary nutrient equivalent[J]. World Regional Studies, 2024, 33(2): 53-63.

图/表 6

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类型	级别	LCCI	意义
盈余	富富有余	LCCI ≤ 0.500	食物富裕充足，具有一定的发展空间
	富裕	0.500 <LCCI ≤0.750
	盈余	0.750 < LCCI ≤ 0.875
平衡	平衡有余	0.875 < LCCI ≤1.000	人口与食物关系基本平衡，但发展潜力有限
平衡	临界超载	1.000 < LCCI ≤ 1.125	人口与食物关系基本平衡，但发展潜力有限
超载	轻微超载	1.125 < LCCI ≤ 1.250	食物缺口较大，人口超载严重
	过载	1.250 < LCCI ≤ 1.500
	严重超载	LCCI > 1.500

类型	级别	LCCI	意义
盈余	富富有余	LCCI ≤ 0.500	食物富裕充足，具有一定的发展空间
	富裕	0.500 <LCCI ≤0.750
	盈余	0.750 < LCCI ≤ 0.875
平衡	平衡有余	0.875 < LCCI ≤1.000	人口与食物关系基本平衡，但发展潜力有限
平衡	临界超载	1.000 < LCCI ≤ 1.125	人口与食物关系基本平衡，但发展潜力有限
超载	轻微超载	1.125 < LCCI ≤ 1.250	食物缺口较大，人口超载严重
	过载	1.250 < LCCI ≤ 1.500
	严重超载	LCCI > 1.500

每1kg	热量/kcal	蛋白质/g	脂肪/g	每1kg	热量/kcal	蛋白质/g	脂肪/g
小麦及产物	3 440	112	29	鱼类	1 100	208	30
玉米及产物	3 440	99	34	植物油	9 000	0	1 000
稻米	3 500	66	3	水果	486	6	3
其他谷物	3 425	100	37	淀粉根类	870	14.5	2
蔬菜	280	13	2	豆类	3 313	234	30
牛肉	1 630	195	91	内脏	1 313	189	53
羊肉	2 343	178	181	动物脂肪	8 400	3	931
禽肉	1 170	206	38	木本坚果	6 123	185	531
猪肉	3 950	132	370	糖料作物	750	7.5	1
其他肉类	1 315	218	44	糖及甜味剂	3 620	0	0
蛋类	1 390	145	90	油料作物	5 740	201	462
奶类	645	34	37	大豆	4 240	329	199

每1kg	热量/kcal	蛋白质/g	脂肪/g	每1kg	热量/kcal	蛋白质/g	脂肪/g
小麦及产物	3 440	112	29	鱼类	1 100	208	30
玉米及产物	3 440	99	34	植物油	9 000	0	1 000
稻米	3 500	66	3	水果	486	6	3
其他谷物	3 425	100	37	淀粉根类	870	14.5	2
蔬菜	280	13	2	豆类	3 313	234	30
牛肉	1 630	195	91	内脏	1 313	189	53
羊肉	2 343	178	181	动物脂肪	8 400	3	931
禽肉	1 170	206	38	木本坚果	6 123	185	531
猪肉	3 950	132	370	糖料作物	750	7.5	1
其他肉类	1 315	218	44	糖及甜味剂	3 620	0	0
蛋类	1 390	145	90	油料作物	5 740	201	462
奶类	645	34	37	大豆	4 240	329	199

种类	情景
种类	本国	内陆发展中国家	南亚	世界平均	中国
热量/(kcal/人/天)	2 991.21	4 754.08	4 841.54	8 572.06	8 062.62
蛋白质/(g/人/天)	88.45	156.81	127.95	279.08	300.98
脂肪/(g/人/天)	60.20	112.10	130.19	304.76	249.47

1961—2019年阿富汗土地资源承载力变化研究

The trend of land resources carrying capacity in Afghanistan from 1961 to 2019: Based on the dietary nutrient equivalent

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