后冷战时期阿富汗暴力冲突的时空演变及行为体互动特征研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.02.20230370

世界地理研究 ›› 2024, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (2): 40-52.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.02.20230370

后冷战时期阿富汗暴力冲突的时空演变及行为体互动特征研究

陈秀红¹(), 胡志丁², 叶倩源³(), 牛福长⁴

^1.云南师范大学地理学部，昆明 650500
^2.华东师范大学地理科学学院，上海 200062
^3.云南民族大学南亚东南亚语言文化学院，昆明 650500
^4.北京师范大学地理科学学部，北京 100875

收稿日期:2023-04-07 修回日期:2023-10-16 出版日期:2024-02-15 发布日期:2024-02-29
通讯作者: 叶倩源
作者简介:陈秀红（1999—），女，硕士研究生，研究方向为地缘环境与区域国别研究，E-mail：chenxh9968@126.com。
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金重大项目(20&ZD138);云南师范大学研究生科研创新基金项目(01300205020502003┫┣Grant BNUXKJC2204)

Study on the spatio-temporal evolution and behavioral interactions of the violence conflict in Afghanistan during the Post-Cold War Period

Xiuhong CHEN¹(), Zhiding HU², Qianyuan YE³(), Fuchang NIU⁴

^1.Faculty of Geography, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China
^2.School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
^3.School of South Asian and Southeast Asian Languages and Cultures, Yunnan Minzu University, Kunming 650500, China
^4.Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Received:2023-04-07 Revised:2023-10-16 Online:2024-02-15 Published:2024-02-29
Contact: Qianyuan YE

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

当今世界的死亡和不稳定大多由暴力冲突事件造成，且冲突空间被视为领土和网络嵌入性的结合停留在理念层面，因此，揭示其时空演变和探索冲突行为体的互动特征具有迫切的现实与理论意义。鉴于此，立足冲突空间的概念化，搭建“事件-网络”分析框架，综合运用核密度、趋势面和社会网络分析等方法，系统分析冷战结束以来阿富汗不同时期暴力冲突的“位置-方向-形态-关系（网络）”。研究表明：（1）冲突是人地关系错配形成的复杂系统。阿富汗冲突阶段性特征与地缘战略地位升降和行为体网络关联密切，“战斗季节”特征明显，低强度占据主导和主要。（2）冲突的空间格局形态受地形及其走向的裹挟与制约。阿富汗冲突受兴都库什山脉的影响，面域趋势为东北-西南向，“点-线-面”特征逐渐强化，冲突空间呈“O”形分布形态。（3）行为体“解网”与“结网”表征下的权力博弈与冲突密切相关。阿富汗国内行为体关联渐趋“解网化”，阿富汗政府-塔利班构成内部冲突核心“关系对”；域外参与主体“结网低”，且尚未形成社区网络互动迹象。研究捕捉了冲突空间如何将社会关系网络与地理位置背景相结合，以理解国家内部卷入持续冲突的方式，揭示冲突产生的空间社会性，加深对阿富汗“帝国坟场”空间发生机制的理解。

关键词: 暴力冲突, 时空演变, 行为体分析, 冲突空间概念化网络, 阿富汗

Abstract:

Since most of the deaths and instability in today's world are caused by violent conflict events, and the combination of conflict space as territorial and network embeddedness remains at the conceptual level, it is of urgent practical and theoretical significance to reveal its spatio-temporal evolution and explore the interactive characteristics of conflict actors. In view of this, based on the conceptualization of conflict space, we built an "event-network" analysis framework, and comprehensively used kernel density estimation, trend surface and social network analysis methods to systematically analyze the "location-direction-form-relationship (network)" of violent conflicts in Afghanistan in different periods since the Post-Cold War. The study shows that: (1) Conflict is a complex system formed by the mismatch of human-territorial relations. The phased characteristics of the conflict in Afghanistan are closely related to the rise and fall of its geostrategic position and networks of actors, the obvious characteristics of "fighting season", and the predominance of low-intensity conflict. (2) The spatial pattern of conflict is coerced and restricted by topography and its direction. The Hindu Kush Mountains influence the conflict in Afghanistan, and the trend of the surface area is northeast-southwest, with the "point-line-area" feature gradually strengthening. The conflict space has an "O" shaped distribution pattern. (3) The power game and conflict are closely related to the characterization of "un-netting" and "netting" of actors. In Afghanistan, domestic actors tend to "un-net", with the Afghan government-Taliban constituting the core "relationship pair" in the internal conflict. The network of extraterritorial participants is "low", and there is no sign of community network interaction. The study captures how conflict space combines social networks and geographic contexts in order to understand the ways in which countries are internally involved in ongoing conflicts, revealing the spatial sociality of conflict generation, and is expected to deepen the understanding of the spatial mechanisms of in Afghanistan's "imperial graveyard".

Key words: violent conflict, spatio-temporal evolution, actor analysis, conflicting space conceptualizing networks, Afghanistan

陈秀红, 胡志丁, 叶倩源, 牛福长. 后冷战时期阿富汗暴力冲突的时空演变及行为体互动特征研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(2): 40-52.

Xiuhong CHEN, Zhiding HU, Qianyuan YE, Fuchang NIU. Study on the spatio-temporal evolution and behavioral interactions of the violence conflict in Afghanistan during the Post-Cold War Period[J]. World Regional Studies, 2024, 33(2): 40-52.

图/表 8

图 1 暴力冲突时空演化与行为体互动分析框架

Fig.1 Analytical framework for the spatio-temporal evolution of violent conflict and actor interaction

图2 阿富汗区位图注：基于自然资源部标准地图服务网站GS（2016）1666号的标准地图制作，底图无修改，以下地图同。

Fig.2 Bitmap of Afghanistan

图3 冷战结束以来阿富汗暴力冲突事件的时序演化

Fig.3 Time series evolution of violent conflicts in Afghanistan since the end of Cold War

图 4 冷战结束以来阿富汗暴力冲突的季节性

Fig.4 The seasonality of violent conflicts in Afghanistan since the end of Cold War

图 5 冷战结束以来阿富汗暴力冲突强度类型

Fig.5 Types of intensity of violent conflicts in Afghanistan since the end of Cold War

图 6 冷战结束以来阿富汗暴力冲突热度空间趋势面拟合注：蓝线表示南北方向，绿线表示东西方向

Fig.6 Spatial trend surface fitting of the heat of violent conflicts in Afghanistan since the end of Cold War

图 7 冷战结束以来阿富汗暴力冲突事件时空演变

Fig.7 Temporal and spatial evolution of violent conflicts in Afghanistan since the end of Cold War

图 8 冷战结束以来阿富汗暴力冲突的行为体网络注：节点大小以“度”衡量，颜色代表社区网络。

Fig.8 Actor network of violent conflicts in Afghanistan since the end of Cold War

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后冷战时期阿富汗暴力冲突的时空演变及行为体互动特征研究

Study on the spatio-temporal evolution and behavioral interactions of the violence conflict in Afghanistan during the Post-Cold War Period

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