中国青少年公共体育资源配置时空演化与溢出效应研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.06.20222057

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

青少年公共体育资源均衡合理化配置，是“十四五”时期深化青少年公共体育服务改革的重要环节，对于促进青少年群体身心健康发展具有重要现实意义。运用综合评价测度模型、探索性空间分析（ESDA）和空间杜宾模型及其偏微分分解等计量方法，对2010—2019年中国青少年公共体育资源配置水平的时空格局及空间溢出效应进行探究。结果表明：①全国和省际层面青少年公共体育资源配置水平总体均保持稳定上升的态势，空间上呈现“西南-东北”方向扩散递增的梯度分布格局，表现为“据点状”向“区块状”的空间演进趋势；江浙沪、京津和东北地区为高水平集聚区，中西部为低水平集聚区。②经济发展水平和政府支持力度对于配置水平的提升具有显著的促进作用，并呈现正向的空间溢出效应，而城镇化水平和地区生育水平存在着负向影响并表现出负向的溢出效应。

关键词: 青少年体育, 公共体育资源, 资源配置, 溢出效应, 空间杜宾模型

Abstract:

The balanced and rational allocation of public sports resources for teenagers is an important part of the reform of public sports services for youth in the 14th Five-Year period ( 2021-2025) and is of great practical significance in promoting healthy physical and mental development for teenagers. Using the Comprehensive Evaluation Measurement Model, Exploratory Spatial Analysis (ESDA), Spatial Dubin Model and its partial differential decomposition and other measurement methods, this paper explored the spatial and temporal pattern and spatial spillover effect of the allocation level of public sports resources for teenagers in China from 2010 to 2019. The results show that: ① The allocation level of public sports resources for young people at the national and provincial levels has generally maintained a steady upward trend, showing a gradient distribution pattern of "southwest northeast" direction diffusion and increase, showing a spatial evolution trend from "spot" to "block"; Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin and the Northeast are high-level clusters, while the central and western regions are low-level clusters. ② The level of economic development and government support have a significant role in promoting the level of allocation and show a positive spatial spillover effect, while the level of urbanization and regional fertility have a negative impact and show a negative spillover effect.

Key words: youth sports, public sports resources, resource allocation, spillover effect, Spatial Durbin Model

江磊, 张佑印, 杨丽红, 李鹏鹏. 中国青少年公共体育资源配置时空演化与溢出效应研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(6): 167-182.

Lei JIANG, Youyin ZHANG, Lihong YANG, Pengpeng LI. Research on the space-time evolution and spillover effect of public sports resources allocation of Chinese teenagers: Analysis of Spatial Durbin Model based on inter provincial panel data[J]. World Regional Studies, 2024, 33(6): 167-182.

图/表 11

参考文献 51

1	国家统计局.第七次全国人口普查公报(第五号).国家统计局,2021.
	National Bureau of Statistics. Bulletin of the seventh national census (No.5).National Bureau of Statistics,2021.
2	王志学,刘连发,张勇. 我国青少年体育发展的时代特征与治理体系探究.体育与科学,2017,38(5):69-75.
	WANG Z, LIU L, ZHANG Y. Research on the characteristics of the times and the governance system of youth sports development in China. Sports and Science,2017,38(5):69-75.
3	舒宗礼. 基于整体性治理的我国青少年体育公共服务体系研究. 武汉体育学院学报,2020,54(8):20-27.
	SHU Z. Research on China's youth sports public service system based on holistic governance. Journal of Wuhan Sports University,2020,54(8):20-27.
4	刘芳梅. 我国青少年体育俱乐部与政府合作模式的构建——以资源相互依赖理论为视角. 广州体育学院学报,2011,31(3):33-38.
	LIU F. The construction of cooperation mode between youth sports clubs and the government in China--From the perspective of resource interdependence theory. Journal of Guangzhou Sport University,2011,31(3):33-38.
5	惠陈隆. 我国青少年体育竞赛资源整合的现状分析与对策研究. 北京体育大学学报,2014,37(7):23-30.
	HUI C. Current situation analysis and countermeasure research on the integration of youth sports competition resources in China. Journal of Beijing Sport University,2014,37(7):23-30.
6	金朝霞,黄亚玲. 体教融合背景下我国青少年体育社会组织发展研究. 体育文化导刊,2021(5):35-40.
	JIN C, HUANG Y. Research on the development of youth sports social organization in China under the background of sports education integration. Sports Culture Guide,2021(5):35-40.
7	周结友,裴立新,栗燕梅,等. 青少年体育公共服务现状、问题与建议——来自6省(区、市)评估调研的分析与思考. 体育科学,2018,38(8):38-48.
	ZHOU J, PEI L, LI Y, et al. Current situation, problems and suggestions of youth sports public service--Analysis and thinking from the evaluation and investigation of 6 provinces (districts and cities). China Sport Science,2018,38(8):38-48.
8	刘亮,王惠. 供给侧改革视角下中国公共体育资源供需矛盾的消解与改革路径. 武汉体育学院学报,2016,50(4):51-55.
	LIU L, WANG H. The resolution and reform path of the contradiction between supply and demand of public sports resources in China from the perspective of supply side reform. Journal of Wuhan Sports University, 2016,50(4):51-55.
9	王占坤,李款,曲广财,等. 日本青少年体育公共服务体系建设的特征及借鉴. 天津体育学院学报,2021,36(1):20-28.
	WANG Z, LI K, QU G, et al. Characteristics and reference of Japanese youth sports public service system construction. Journal of Tianjin University of Sport,2021,36(1):20-28.
10	胡雅静,柳鸣毅,闫亚茹,等. 发达国家青少年体育公共服务体系研究. 体育科学,2019,39(12):25-33.
	HU Y, LIU M, YAN Y, et al. Research on youth sports public service system in developed countries. China Sports Science,2019,39(12):25-33.
11	姜韩,柳鸣毅. 基于路线图方法的中国青少年体育公共服务体系构建. 成都体育学院学报,2015,41(5):34-38.
	JIANG H, LIU M. Construction of Chinese youth sports public service system based on road map method. Journal of Chengdu Sport University,2015,41(5):34-38.
12	雷秀萍. 农村青少年体育公共服务资源体系构建. 核农学报,2020,34(11):2632.
	LEI X. Construction of rural youth sports public service resource system. Journal of Nuclear Agricultural Sciences,2020,34(11):2632.
13	刘军,邹月辉. 区域协调战略下长三角地区公共体育资源配置公平性研究. 南通大学学报(社会科学版),2022,38(4):56-63.
	LIU J, ZOU Y. Research on the fairness of public sports resource allocation in the Yangtze River Delta under the regional coordination strategy. Journal of Nantong University(Social Sciences Edition),2022,38(4): 56-63.
14	鲜一,陈鸥,李秦宇. "双循环"格局下我国公共体育资源优化配置研究——基于资源流动视角. 体育学刊,2022,29(4):53-60.
	XIAN Y, CHEN O, LI Q. Research on the optimal allocation of public sports resources in China under the "double cycle" pattern--Based on the perspective of resource flow. Journal of Physical Education,2022,29(4):53-60.
15	朱焱,张佃波,李洋. 中国公共体育资源区域协调发展评价与路径选择研究. 广州体育学院学报,2022,42(1):43-51.
	ZHU Y, ZHANG D, LI Y. Research on evaluation and path selection of regional coordinated development of China's public sports resources. Journal of Guangzhou Sport University,2022,42(1):43-51.
16	段冬旭,周剑,胡友群. 基于供需理论的公共体育资源有效配置. 沈阳体育学院学报,2011,30(6):68-72.
	DUAN D, ZHOU J, HU Y. Effective allocation of public sports resources based on supply and demand theory. Journal of Shenyang Sport University,2011,30(6):68-72.
17	朱焱,于文谦. 我国公共体育资源区域差异研究. 体育学研究,2020,34(3):78-87.
	ZHU Y, YU W. Research on regional differences of public sports resources in China. Journal of Sports Research, 2020,34(3):78-87.
18	唐晓辉,李洪波,孙庆祝. 城市社区公共体育资源配置的政府绩效评价体系研究. 天津体育学院学报,2012,27(5):386-390.
	TANG X, LI H, SUN Q. Research on the government performance evaluation system of public sports resource allocation in urban communities. Journal of Tianjin University of Sport, 2012,27(5):386-390.
19	钟武,王冬冬. 基于基尼系数的群众体育资源配置公平性研究. 体育科学,2012,32(12):10-14.
	ZHONG W, WANG D. Research on fairness of mass sports resource allocation based on Gini coefficient. China Sport Science, 2012,32(12):10-14.
20	胡娟,杨靖三,陈刚,等. 江苏县域公共体育服务资源的配置水平与影响机制分析. 体育科学,2016,36(10):18-25.
	HU J, YANG J, CHEN G, et al. Analysis on the allocation level and impact mechanism of public sports service resources in Jiangsu county. China Sport Science,2016,36(10):18-25.
21	陈华伟,丁聪聪,陈金伟. 全民健身公共体育资源配置效率测度及影响因素分析. 西安体育学院学报,2016,33(6):666-672.
	CHEN H, DING C, CHEN J. Measurement of the efficiency of public sports resource allocation for fitness for all and analysis of influencing factors. Journal of Xi'an Physical Education University,2016,33(6):666-672.
22	蔡朋龙,王家宏. 论公共体育资源配置市场化改革中政府角色定位. 沈阳体育学院学报,2020,39(2):58-67.
	CAI P, WANG J. On the role of government in the market-oriented reform of public sports resource allocation. Journal of Shenyang Sport University, 2020,39(2):58-67.
23	马德浩. 人口结构转变视域下的上海体育发展战略研究. 体育科学,2019,39(4):51-62.
	MA D. Research on Shanghai sports development strategy from the perspective of population structure transformation. China Sports Science,2019,39(4):51-62.
24	樊炳有,王继帅. 经济百强县公共体育资源配置的差异性研究. 北京体育大学学报,2019,42(12):127-138.
	FAN B, WANG J. Research on the difference of public sports resource allocation in top 100 economic counties. Journal of Beijing Sport University, 2019,42(12):127-138.
25	程志理,刘米娜,刘雪冰,等. 公共体育资源、体育参与与公共体育服务满意度研究. 体育与科学,2016,37(4):77-87.
	CHENG Z, LIU M, LIU X, et al. Research on public sports resources, sports participation and satisfaction of public sports services. Sports and Science, 2016,37(4):77-87.
26	沈体雁. 空间计量经济学. 北京:北京大学出版社,2010.
	SHEN T. Spatial Econometrics. Beijing: Peking University Press,2010.
27	李小文,曹春香,常超一. 地理学第一定律与时空邻近度的提出. 自然杂志,2007(2):69-71.
	LI X, CAO C, CHANG C. The first law of geography and the proposition of space time proximity. Chinese Journal of Nature,2007(2):69-71.
28	魏素豪,李晶,李泽怡,等. 中国农业竞争力时空格局演化及其影响因素. 地理学报,2020,75(6):1287-1300.
	WEI S, LI J, LI Z, et al. Temporal and spatial pattern evolution of China's agricultural competitiveness and its influencing factors. Acta Geographica Sinica,2020,75(6):1287-1300.
29	江磊,张佑印,张景全,等.基于熵权-TOPSIS法的省域休闲体育竞争力评价及差异特征分析.陕西师范大学学报(自然科学版),2022,50(6):113-123.
	JIANG L, ZHANG Y, ZHANG J, et al. Evaluation and difference analysis of provincial leisure sports competitiveness based on entropy weight TOPSIS method. Journal of Shaanxi Normal University(Natural Science Edition),2022,50(6):113-123.
30	李勇,檀楠楠. 我国医疗卫生资源配置效率的实证. 统计与决策,2021,37(13):80-83.
	LI Y, TAN N. Empirical study on the allocation efficiency of medical and health resources in China. Statistics and Decision, 2021,37(13):80-83.
31	喻登科,周荣,郎益夫. 我国区域基础教育资源配置均等化指数测量的实证——基于2000—2009年面板数据的分析. 情报杂志,2011,30(12):99-107.
	YU D, ZHOU R, LANG Y. Empirical study on the measurement of the equalization index of regional basic education resource allocation in China--Analysis based on panel data from 2000 to 2009. Journal of Intelligence,2011,30(12):99-107.
32	朱焱,于文谦. 新时期我国公共体育资源综合配置水平评价指标体系构建. 武汉体育学院学报,2020,54(3):5-12.
	ZHU Y, YU W. Construction of evaluation index system for comprehensive allocation of public sports resources in the new era. Journal of Wuhan Sports University, 2020,54(3):5-12.
33	代欢欢,陈俊华,方尹. 1986年—2016年伊朗人口空间分布格局演变特征. 世界地理研究,2017,26(3):29-38.
	DAI H, CHEN J, FANG Y. Evolution characteristics of spatial distribution pattern of Iranian population from 1986 to 2016. World Regional Studies, 2017, 26(3): 29-38.
34	ANSELIN L. Lagrange multiplier test diagnostics for spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity. Geographical Analysis, 1988,20(1):1-17.
35	ZHAO J, ZHAO Z, ZHANG H. The impact of growth, energy and financial development on environmental pollution in China: New evidence from a spatial econometric analysis. Energy Economics, 2021(93):104506.
36	ANSELIN L. Thirty years of spatial econometrics. Regional Science,2010,89(1):3-25.
37	周滔,胡娟梓. 重庆市城乡医疗资源层级与区域分异特征及驱动机制分析. 中国卫生事业管理,2022,39(4):275-279.
	ZHOU T, HU J. Analysis on the characteristics and driving mechanism of the level and regional differentiation of urban and rural medical resources in Chongqing. Chinese Health Service Management, 2022,39(4):275-279.
38	湛东升,虞晓芬,吴倩倩,等. 中国租赁住房发展的区域差异与影响因素. 地理科学,2020,40(12):1990-1999.
	ZHAN D, YU X, WU Q, et al. Regional differences and influencing factors of rental housing development in China. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2020,40(12):1990-1999.
39	CHENG Y, WANG Z, YE X, et al. Spatio-temporal dynamics of carbon intensity from energy consumption in China. Journal of Geographical Sciences,2014,24(4):631-650.
40	刘佳,刘贤明,安珂珂,等. 长三角城市群旅游环境承载力时空分异格局与空间效应研究. 长江流域资源与环境,2022,31(7):1441-1454.
	LIU J, LIU X, AN K, et al. Research on spatial-temporal differentiation pattern and spatial effect of tourism environmental carrying capacity of urban agglomeration in Yangtze River Delta. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2022,31(7):1441-1454.
41	杨国庆,刘红建,郇昌店. 新时代中国青少年体育公共服务体系建设研究. 北京体育大学学报,2018,41(4):9-15.
	YANG G, LIU H, YING C. Research on the construction of Chinese youth sports public service system in the new era. Journal of Beijing Sport University, 2018,41(4):9-15.
42	董新光. 论公共体育资源配置的不平衡及改革取向. 体育文化导刊,2007(3):6-11.
	DONG X. On the unbalance and reform orientation of public sports resource allocation. Sports Culture Guide, 2007(3):6-11.
43	任海,王凯珍,肖淑红,等. 论体育资源配置模式——社会经济条件变革下的中国体育改革(一). 天津体育学院学报,2001(2):1-5.
	REN H, WANG K, XIAO S, et al. On the allocation mode of sports resources--China's sports reform under the reform of social and economic conditions(I). Journal of Tianjin University of Sport,2001(2):1-5.
44	刘雨,刘青. 新中国成立以来青少年体育公共服务政策的演进特征、问题聚焦及优化建议. 体育学研究,2022,36(4):59-65.
	LIU Y, LIU Q. The evolution characteristics, problem focus and optimization suggestions of public service policies for youth sports since the founding of New China. Journal of Sports Research, 2022,36(4):59-65.
45	赵林,吴殿廷,王志慧,等. 中国农村基础教育资源配置的时空格局与影响因素. 经济地理,2018,38(11):39-49.
	ZHAO L, WU D, WANG Z, et al. The space-time pattern and influencing factors of the allocation of rural basic education resources in China. Economic Geography, 2018,38(11):39-49.
46	樊炳有,潘辰鸥,高静. 新时代中国公共体育服务供给治理转型研究. 体育科学,2021,41(2):23-38.
	FAN B, PAN C, GAO J. Research on the governance transformation of China's public sports service supply in the new era. China Sports Science,2021,41(2):23-38.
47	任喜萍. 我国城市公共服务资源配置空间格局及驱动机制. 当代经济管理,2018,40(10):61-68.
	REN X. Spatial pattern and driving mechanism of urban public service resource allocation in China. Contemporary Economic Management,2018,40(10):61-68.
48	杨林,王璐. 城乡公共文化服务资源非均衡配置的影响因素及其改进. 宏观质量研究,2017,5(3):119-132.
	YANG L, WANG L. Influencing factors and improvement of unbalanced allocation of urban and rural public cultural service resources. Journal of Macro-quality Research, 2017,5(3):119-132.
49	潘兴侠,徐媛媛,赵烨. 我国高等教育发展区域差异、空间效应及影响因素. 教育学术月刊,2020(11):9-18.
	PAN X, XU Y, ZHAO Y. Regional differences, spatial effects and influencing factors of China's higher education development. Education Research Monthly, 2020(11):9-18.
50	杨华磊,吴义根,张冰鑫. 城镇化、外部性与生育水平. 人口与发展,2018,24(4):48-55.
	YANG H, WU Y, ZHANG B. Urbanization, externality and fertility. Population and Development, 2018,24(4):48-55.
51	马玉华,王莉,沈克印.公地悲剧、价值失范与多中心治理——中国城镇化进程中公共体育服务的困境与破解. 山东体育学院学报,2015,31(6):1-6.
	MA Y, WANG L, SHEN K. Tragedy of the commons, value anomie and polycentric governance--The dilemma and solution of public sports services in the process of urbanization in China. Journal of Shandong Sport University, 2015,31(6):1-6.

一级指标	二级指标	三级指标	单位	指标权重
H人力支撑资源	H1青少年体育行政工作人员	H1-1青少年体育系统从业人员	个/人	0.055 3
	H2青少年体育教育工作人员	H2-1青少年体育教师人员	个/人	0.009 0
	H3青少年体育专业指导人员	H3-1青少年体育专职教练人员	个/人	0.066 7
	H3青少年体育专业指导人员	H3-2青少年体育社会指导人员	个/人	0.076 6
M场地设施资源	M1青少年社会体育场地设施	M1-1社会健身活动场地面积	m²/人	0.060 4
	M1青少年社会体育场地设施	M1-2体质健康测试点数量	个/人	0.116 2
	M2青少年学校体育场地资源	M2-1学校体育场馆面积	m²/人	0.088 1
	M2青少年学校体育场地资源	M2-2学校运动场地面积	m²/人	0.017 7
F财政支持资源	F1青少年体育政府财政支出	F1-1用于教育的体育经费支出	元/人	0.133 6
F财政支持资源	F2青少年体育体彩公益基金	F2-1青少年体育彩票公益金支出	元/人	0.129 4
O组织机构资源	O1青少年体育业余训练组织	O1-1青少年体育学校数量	个/人	0.043 5
O组织机构资源	O2青少年体育俱乐部组织	O2-1青少年体育俱乐部数量	个/人	0.099 7

一级指标	二级指标	三级指标	单位	指标权重
H人力支撑资源	H1青少年体育行政工作人员	H1-1青少年体育系统从业人员	个/人	0.055 3
	H2青少年体育教育工作人员	H2-1青少年体育教师人员	个/人	0.009 0
	H3青少年体育专业指导人员	H3-1青少年体育专职教练人员	个/人	0.066 7
	H3青少年体育专业指导人员	H3-2青少年体育社会指导人员	个/人	0.076 6
M场地设施资源	M1青少年社会体育场地设施	M1-1社会健身活动场地面积	m²/人	0.060 4
	M1青少年社会体育场地设施	M1-2体质健康测试点数量	个/人	0.116 2
	M2青少年学校体育场地资源	M2-1学校体育场馆面积	m²/人	0.088 1
	M2青少年学校体育场地资源	M2-2学校运动场地面积	m²/人	0.017 7
F财政支持资源	F1青少年体育政府财政支出	F1-1用于教育的体育经费支出	元/人	0.133 6
F财政支持资源	F2青少年体育体彩公益基金	F2-1青少年体育彩票公益金支出	元/人	0.129 4
O组织机构资源	O1青少年体育业余训练组织	O1-1青少年体育学校数量	个/人	0.043 5
O组织机构资源	O2青少年体育俱乐部组织	O2-1青少年体育俱乐部数量	个/人	0.099 7

年份	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Moran’s I	0.235	0.236	0.197	0.288	0.267	0.274	0.190	0.234	0.251	0.270
Z	2.682	2.707	2.251	3.179	2.849	2.965	2.353	2.651	2.800	3.022
P	0.004	0.003	0.012	0.001	0.002	0.002	0.009	0.004	0.003	0.001

年份	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Moran’s I	0.235	0.236	0.197	0.288	0.267	0.274	0.190	0.234	0.251	0.270
Z	2.682	2.707	2.251	3.179	2.849	2.965	2.353	2.651	2.800	3.022
P	0.004	0.003	0.012	0.001	0.002	0.002	0.009	0.004	0.003	0.001

适配性检验	统计值	P值
LM_Spatial lag	35.312	0.000 0
Robust LM_ Spatial lag	4.431	0.035 0
LM_ Spatial error	42.215	0.000 0
Robust LM_ Spatial error	11.334	0.001 0
Wald_Spatial lag	8.300	0.081 3
LR_Spatial lag	44.090	0.000 0
Wald_Spatial error	12.650	0.013 1
LR_Spatial error	42.490	0.000 0
Hausman	73.590	0.000 0