战略耦合视角下澳门产业演化历程与解析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2026.06.20241124

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

当前对澳门经济发展的研究多集中于区域内部，缺乏多尺度视角对澳门发展历程进行解析，因此本研究利用全球生产网络的分析框架，基于战略耦合理论对澳门产业演化历程进行解析。主要结论为：澳门的全球化历程是依托区位优势和区域政策形成的战略耦合结果；与大湾区其他城市不同，澳门不是在同一种耦合状态下发展，而是经历了从制造业到博彩业的模式切换；战略耦合为澳门带来了经济与社会全方位的发展与繁荣，使澳门逐步降低了对贸易的依赖，但形成了一定的路径黏性，长期积累形成的区域资产、制度安排等，与当下各类高质量全球生产网络的需求不相匹配，难以与高端制造、科技、金融业的全球生产网络发生耦合。最后，本研究针对这些挑战，为澳门未来发展提出了相关的政策建议。

关键词: 澳门, 产业演化, 战略耦合, 全球生产网络

Abstract:

Presently, research on Macao's economic development predominantly focuses on the regional level, lacking a multi-scale perspective to comprehensively analyze the evolution of Macao's development trajectory. Consequently, this study employs the analytical framework of Global Production Network and the theory of strategic coupling to examine the transformation of Macao's industrial landscape. The primary finding indicates that Macao's globalization process is a result of strategic coupling, leveraging its geographical advantages and regional policies. Unlike other cities within the Greater Bay Area, Macao has not remained in a single coupling mode but has undergone a shift from manufacturing-based to gaming-based strategic couling. Strategic coupling has facilitated comprehensive economic and social development and prosperity in Macao, enabling the region to gradually reduce its reliance on trade. However, this process has also created a certain level of stickiness, with long-term accumulation leading to regional assets, institutional arrangements, and other factors that are not matched with the current demand for high-quality global production networks such as advanced manufacturing, technology, and finance. Consequently, this study offers pertinent policy recommendations to address these challenges and guide Macao's future development.

Key words: Macau, industrial evolution, strategic coupling, global production network

刘逸, 王文奇, 李佳如, 纪捷韩. 战略耦合视角下澳门产业演化历程与解析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2026, 35(6): 168-179.

Yi LIU, Wenqi WANG, Jiaru LI, Jiehan JI. The evolution of Macau's industries from the perspective of strategic coupling[J]. World Regional Studies, 2026, 35(6): 168-179.

图/表 3

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发展阶段	时期	主导产业	耦合模式	产业特征
传统产业和国际商埠阶段	16世纪—19世纪初	手工制造业	制造业依附式耦合	高外部依赖性
博彩业兴起阶段	19世纪中叶—1949年	博彩业	博彩业互惠式耦合	政策主导
四大支柱产业阶段	20世纪中叶—1999年	博彩旅游业、金融保险业、建筑地产业和出口加工业	制造业解耦、重耦及再度解耦	转型、重构、调整
博彩业飞速发展阶段	1999—2007年	博彩业、旅游业	博彩业吸收式耦合	指数级扩张，一业独大
产业波动变化阶段	2008—2022年	服务业（博彩业为主）	消费服务业互惠式耦合、博彩业吸收式耦合；其他产业依附式耦合	高外部扰动易感性
多元化发展和转型挑战阶段	2022年至今	零售业、银行业、公共行政业、房地产业、博彩业	各产业多元化耦合，博彩业稳定吸收式耦合	创新、优化、可持续

发展阶段	时期	主导产业	耦合模式	产业特征
传统产业和国际商埠阶段	16世纪—19世纪初	手工制造业	制造业依附式耦合	高外部依赖性
博彩业兴起阶段	19世纪中叶—1949年	博彩业	博彩业互惠式耦合	政策主导
四大支柱产业阶段	20世纪中叶—1999年	博彩旅游业、金融保险业、建筑地产业和出口加工业	制造业解耦、重耦及再度解耦	转型、重构、调整
博彩业飞速发展阶段	1999—2007年	博彩业、旅游业	博彩业吸收式耦合	指数级扩张，一业独大
产业波动变化阶段	2008—2022年	服务业（博彩业为主）	消费服务业互惠式耦合、博彩业吸收式耦合；其他产业依附式耦合	高外部扰动易感性
多元化发展和转型挑战阶段	2022年至今	零售业、银行业、公共行政业、房地产业、博彩业	各产业多元化耦合，博彩业稳定吸收式耦合	创新、优化、可持续