生态文明视域下中国区域人类发展 空间差异与演变趋势

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2020.06.2019290

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

1990年联合国开发计划署基于多维视角提出人类发展指数来综合评判地区发展水平和社会进步，但该指标体系并未涉及生态环境方面的考量，因而在衡量人类发展方面存在局限性。本文利用生态投入指数从资源消耗和污染排放维度修正人类发展指数，构建生态敏感的中国区域人类发展指数。结合Geoda和ArcGis软件，运用空间探索技术对中国区域人类发展的空间相关性进行测度，在此基础上利用空间标准差椭圆探讨中国区域人类发展的空间演变趋势。研究表明，中国区域人类发展水平在空间上呈集聚分布；区域人类发展的空间分布格局存在一定的空间锁定和路径依赖性；在方向上具有明显的空间分异性，整体呈现非均衡空间分布特征。

关键词: 生态敏感, 区域人类发展指数, 标准差椭圆, 空间趋势

Abstract:

In 1990, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) proposed Human Development Index (HDI) based on a multidimensional perspective to comprehensively assess regional development levels and social progress.However, the indicator system does not address ecological considerations and therefore has limitations in measuring human development.The Ecological Input Index (EII) was used to modify the Human Development Index (HDI) from the dimension of resource consumption and pollution emissions.On this basis, it builds an Ecologically-sensitive China Regional Human Development Index (ECHDI).Combining Geoda and Arcgis software, using Spatial Exploration Technology (ESDA) to measure the spatial correlation of human development in China.Based on the Standard Deviational Ellipse (SDE), the spatial evolution trend of human development in China is discussed from the perspective of spatial distribution center, direction and range. The study shows that the spatial correlation and difference of human development in China coexist, and they are concentrated in space. There is a certain spatial locking and path dependence in the spatial distribution pattern of regional human development.

Key words: ecological-sensitivity, regional human development index, standard deviational ellipse, spatial trend

李晶, 王海星. 生态文明视域下中国区域人类发展空间差异与演变趋势[J]. 世界地理研究, 2020, 29(6): 1294-1303.

Jing LI, Haixing WANG. Study on the spatial differentiation and evolution trend of human development in China from the perspective of ecological civilization[J]. World Regional Studies, 2020, 29(6): 1294-1303.

图/表 8

图1 生态敏感的中国区域人类发展指数（ECHDI）构建过程

Fig.1 Ecologically-sensitive China regional human development index (ECHDI) construction process

表1 ECHDI的Global Moran’s I估计值

Tab.1 Global Moran’s I estimates of ECHDI

年份	ECHDI
年份	Global Moran’s I	Z-value	P
1999	0.494	4.667	0.001
2003	0.449	4.367	0.001
2005	0.314	3.171	0.001
2010	0.303	3.045	0.001
2015	0.296	2.862	0.003
2017	0.270	2.749	0.004

图2 ECHDIcv和Global Moran’s I的趋势变化

Fig.2 Trends in ECHDIcv and Global Moran’s I

图3 Moran散点图

Fig.3 Moran scatter plot

表2 ECHDI空间集聚类型的时空跃迁矩阵

Tab.2 ECHDI spatial cluster type transition matrix

时间段	初始类型变迁类型	HH	LH	LL	HL	跃迁省份个数占比
1999—2005	HH	/	辽宁	/	吉林	25.81%
	LH	河南、江西	/	/	/
	LL	山西、重庆	/	/	陕西
	HL	湖北	/	/	/
2005—2010	HH	/	江西	/	/	9.68%
	LH	辽宁	/	/	/
	LL	/	/	/	/
	HL	吉林	/	/	/
2010—2017	HH	/	河北、江苏	/	山西、辽宁、吉林、黑龙江	35.48%
	LH	安徽、四川	/	/	/
	LL	广西	贵州	/	/
	HL	湖南	/	/	/

图4 ECHDI空间集聚类型分布图注：该图基于国家测绘地理信息局标准地图服务网站下载的审图号为GS（2016）2556号的标准地图制作，底图无修改。

Fig.4 ECHDI spatial cluster type distribution diagram

图 5 ECHDI全局趋势变化图

Fig.5 ECHDI global trend change chart

表3 ECHDI的标准差椭圆参数变化

Tab.3 ECHDI standard deviational elliptic parameter changes

参数	1999年	2010年	2017年
椭圆中心点	111.954°E，33.591°N	111.938°E，33.532°N	111.907°E，33.413°N
长半轴长度/km	1366	1366	1359
短半轴长度/km	925	922	917
方向角度	74.262°	74.125°	73.074°
面积/（万km²）	396.990	395.358	391.203

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