2000年来中国边境城市对外贸易位序-规模分布及其影响因素

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2020.06.2019104

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

全球化背景下对外贸易活动是特定地域外向联系强度的重要表现，是边境城市区域功能的重要组成部分。运用位序-规模法则、分形理论及核密度等方法，以中国边境各城市的进出口贸易额为主要指标，剖析了中国边境地区对外贸易的规模分布特征及其影响因素。结果发现：①不同阶段的中国边境对外贸易位序-规模特征明显，位序结构内部城市次序变化较大；②位序-规模分布的无标度区变化显著，在18年内出现了4段分形表现，外贸活动的规模波动性、区域化特征明显；③影响因素表现为经济地理禀赋约束下核心城市支配效应明显、邻接地缘环境影响显著、政策导向与口岸推动、内部竞争反推空间结构协调演化四个方面；④不平衡性、集聚性在中国边境地区外贸活动中凸显，空间分布呈现为“核心-边缘”结构，当前国家层级应重点支持对外贸易优势城市，省级尺度协调域内城市对外贸易层次组织与区间联系。

关键词: 对外贸易, 位序-规模法则, 影响因素, 中国边境

Abstract:

In the context of globalization,foreign trade activities are important manifestation of the strength of outward linkages in specific regions. Using the rank-size distribution, fractal theory and kernel density method, the paper analyzes the scale distribution characteristics and influencing factors of foreign trade in China's border areas with the import and export trade volume of China's border cities as the main indicators. The results show: 1) The foreign trade rank-size distribution characteristics of the Chinese borders at different stages are obvious, but the order of the cities within the order structure is extremely different. 2) There is a significant change in the non-scale areas of the rank-size distribution. In the 18 years, there are four segments of fractal performance, the scale fluctuation and regionalization of foreign trade activities are obvious. 3) The influencing factors include: a) characterized by the obvious dominance effect of large cities under the constraints of economic geography, b) adjacent geoenvironment has significant influence, c) Policy orientation and port promotion, d) internal competition forced the spatial structure to coordinate evolution. 4) Unbalance and agglomeration are highlighted in foreign trade activities in China's border areas, and spatial distribution appears as a "core-edge" structure. At present, the national level should focus on supporting foreign trade superior cities, and the provincial-level coordination of urban foreign trade level organization and interval linkage.

Key words: foreign trade, rank-size law, influencing factors, border of China

杨鑫, 彭飞, 张琦琦, 胡伟. 2000年来中国边境城市对外贸易位序-规模分布及其影响因素[J]. 世界地理研究, 2020, 29(6): 1102-1112.

Xin YANG, Fei PENG, Qiqi ZHANG, Wei HU. The rank-size distribution and influencing factors of foreign trade in China's border from 2000 to 2017[J]. World Regional Studies, 2020, 29(6): 1102-1112.

图/表 6

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年份	无标度区一	无标度区二	无标度区三
年份	范围；拟合方程；R²	范围；拟合方程；R²	范围；拟合方程；R²
2000	1~33;14.457~1.123lnk;0.885	34~45;51.559~11.874lnk;0.980	--------------------------
2001	1~34;14.524~1.172lnk;0.865	35~45;57.294~13.391lnk;0.968	--------------------------
2002	1~33;14.789~1.251lnk;0.854	34~45;60.156~14.246lnk;0.951	--------------------------
2003	1~22;14.304~0.894lnk;0.907	23~33;21.971~3.517lnk;0.984	34~45;57.107~13.406lnk;0.940
2004	1~18;15.213~1.033lnk;0.947	19~35;20.624~3.020lnk;0.960	36~45;41.564~9.050lnk;0.869
2005	1~17;15.193~0.869lnk;0.943	17~37;22.280~3.481lnk;0.962	38~45;52.551~11.928lnk;0.962
2006	1~14;15.269~0.764lnk;0.914	15~37;23.595~3.840lnk;0.976	38~45;60.450~14.042lnk;0.864
2007	1~22;15.703~0.892lnk;0.937	23~39;24.504~3.995lnk;0.986	40~45;65.577~15.319lnk;0.825
2008	1~14;15.663~0.717lnk;0.959	15~38;22.838~3.549lnk;0.978	39~45;93.823~22.874lnk;0.970
2009	1~29;15.923~1.116lnk;0.839	30~45;55.99~12.888lnk;0.850	--------------------------
2010	1~20;15.795~0.863lnk;0.944	21~37;26.725~4.460lnk;0.982	38~45;68.684~16.177lnk;0.950
2011	1~36;16.836~1.362lnk;0.851	37~45;64.195~14.916lnk;0.857	--------------------------
2012	1~22;15.669~0.696nk;0.928	23~34;23.319~3.301lnk;0.971	35~45;67.232~15.659lnk;0.968
2013	1~23;16.140~0.823lnk;0.972	24~37;26.408~4.187lnk;0.892	38~45;86.333~20.714lnk;0.951
2014	1~33;16.645~1.134lnk;0.900	34~45;67.614~15.693lnk;0.841	--------------------------
2015	1~35;16.560~1.229lnk;0.969	36~44;70.787~16.447lnk;0.936	--------------------------
2016	1~28;16.528~1.115lnk;0.961	29~45;52.030~11.592lnk;0.851	--------------------------
2017	1~35;17.019~1.342lnk;0.906	36~45;80.406~19.233lnk;0.862	--------------------------

年份	无标度区一	无标度区二	无标度区三
年份	范围；拟合方程；R²	范围；拟合方程；R²	范围；拟合方程；R²
2000	1~33;14.457~1.123lnk;0.885	34~45;51.559~11.874lnk;0.980	--------------------------
2001	1~34;14.524~1.172lnk;0.865	35~45;57.294~13.391lnk;0.968	--------------------------
2002	1~33;14.789~1.251lnk;0.854	34~45;60.156~14.246lnk;0.951	--------------------------
2003	1~22;14.304~0.894lnk;0.907	23~33;21.971~3.517lnk;0.984	34~45;57.107~13.406lnk;0.940
2004	1~18;15.213~1.033lnk;0.947	19~35;20.624~3.020lnk;0.960	36~45;41.564~9.050lnk;0.869
2005	1~17;15.193~0.869lnk;0.943	17~37;22.280~3.481lnk;0.962	38~45;52.551~11.928lnk;0.962
2006	1~14;15.269~0.764lnk;0.914	15~37;23.595~3.840lnk;0.976	38~45;60.450~14.042lnk;0.864
2007	1~22;15.703~0.892lnk;0.937	23~39;24.504~3.995lnk;0.986	40~45;65.577~15.319lnk;0.825
2008	1~14;15.663~0.717lnk;0.959	15~38;22.838~3.549lnk;0.978	39~45;93.823~22.874lnk;0.970
2009	1~29;15.923~1.116lnk;0.839	30~45;55.99~12.888lnk;0.850	--------------------------
2010	1~20;15.795~0.863lnk;0.944	21~37;26.725~4.460lnk;0.982	38~45;68.684~16.177lnk;0.950
2011	1~36;16.836~1.362lnk;0.851	37~45;64.195~14.916lnk;0.857	--------------------------
2012	1~22;15.669~0.696nk;0.928	23~34;23.319~3.301lnk;0.971	35~45;67.232~15.659lnk;0.968
2013	1~23;16.140~0.823lnk;0.972	24~37;26.408~4.187lnk;0.892	38~45;86.333~20.714lnk;0.951
2014	1~33;16.645~1.134lnk;0.900	34~45;67.614~15.693lnk;0.841	--------------------------
2015	1~35;16.560~1.229lnk;0.969	36~44;70.787~16.447lnk;0.936	--------------------------
2016	1~28;16.528~1.115lnk;0.961	29~45;52.030~11.592lnk;0.851	--------------------------
2017	1~35;17.019~1.342lnk;0.906	36~45;80.406~19.233lnk;0.862	--------------------------

规模等级	2000年	2017年
高规模等级	包头市、呼伦贝尔市、佳木斯市、牡丹江市、延边朝鲜族自治州、伊犁哈萨克自治州、崇左市、防城港市、博尔塔拉蒙古自治州	呼伦贝尔市、伊犁哈萨克自治州、喀什市、丹东市、牡丹江市、德宏傣族景颇族自治州、百色市、崇左市、防城港市
低规模等级	兴安盟、大兴安岭地区、伊春市、鹤岗市、哈密地区、和田地区、阿里地区、克孜勒柯尔克孜自治州、山南市、林芝市、怒江州、文山州、临沧市	兴安盟、鹤岗市、大兴安岭地区、双鸭山市、鸡西市、乌兰察布市、哈密地区、克孜勒柯尔克孜自治州、阿克苏地区、阿里地区、山南市、林芝市、保山市

规模等级	2000年	2017年
高规模等级	包头市、呼伦贝尔市、佳木斯市、牡丹江市、延边朝鲜族自治州、伊犁哈萨克自治州、崇左市、防城港市、博尔塔拉蒙古自治州	呼伦贝尔市、伊犁哈萨克自治州、喀什市、丹东市、牡丹江市、德宏傣族景颇族自治州、百色市、崇左市、防城港市
低规模等级	兴安盟、大兴安岭地区、伊春市、鹤岗市、哈密地区、和田地区、阿里地区、克孜勒柯尔克孜自治州、山南市、林芝市、怒江州、文山州、临沧市	兴安盟、鹤岗市、大兴安岭地区、双鸭山市、鸡西市、乌兰察布市、哈密地区、克孜勒柯尔克孜自治州、阿克苏地区、阿里地区、山南市、林芝市、保山市

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