非洲外商直接投资的时空变化与影响因素

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2020.06.2019216

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于2006—2017年非洲52个国家FDI数据以及其经济、政治、资源等数据，运用泰尔指数和面板数据固定效应模型对非洲外商直接投资的时空变化与影响因素进行研究。研究结果表明：1）非洲FDI流入量整体呈现出波动上升的趋势，其中北非呈现下降趋势，西非和中非呈现出波动上升的趋势，东非的上升趋势相对稳定且强势，南部非洲地区波动变化显著，趋势不明显；随着非洲经济发展，五大区域中北非和西非的FDI流入量最多，呈现出“两强三弱”的区域分布格局。2）非洲FDI总体差异呈现出缓慢上升趋势，年际变化呈现出“减—增—减”的波动；影响FDI总体差异的主要因素是区域内部差异，西非、南部非洲和中非区域内部的差异尤为明显，其中西非内部差异贡献最大。3）经济社会环境因素整体上对非洲FDI影响有限，但局部对西非影响较大；经济发展水平对东非、南非的外资流入起着积极作用，而对西非起着抑制作用；对外开放度对西非起着消极影响；聚集效应对西非、中非、北非的作用有限。政治制度因素整体上对非洲外资具有显著的作用，但局部对北非和东非作用有限。资源禀赋因素总体上是外企对非洲区位选择的决定性因素，但局部对北非和东非影响不大。基础设施因素总体上对非洲大陆FDI的流入量影响不大，但对南部非洲地区除外。

关键词: 外商直接投资, 时空变化, 泰尔指数, 区位选择因素, 非洲

Abstract:

The absorption of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has a greater impact on the economic development of Africa, which is the main source of foreign development capital in Africa, and the research on the FDI of African countries has become an important topic. In order to figure out the regulation of FDI spatial and temporal evolvement and its influencing factors in five different regions in Africa, this paper firstly use the Theil index and panel data fixed effect model. At present, its most features are :1) Africa's FDI generally show a volatility trend. North Africa shows a downward trend, West Africa and Central Africa show a volatility trend. East Africa's upward trend is relatively stable, and southern Africa's trend fluctuates significantly. North Africa and West Africa have the largest FDI and there is a regional distribution pattern of "two strong and three weak" in Africa . 2) The FDI in Africa shows a slow upward trend, and the interannual changes show fluctuations of "decrease-increase-decrease"; the main factors are intra-regional differences within West Africa, Southern Africa and Central Africa. West Africa contributes the most. 3) Economic and social environmental factors have a limited impact on FDI in Africa as a whole, but some of these factors have a big influence on West Africa. The level of economic development plays a positive role in the FDI in East Africa and South Africa, plays a negative role in West Africa. The opening degree to outside has a negative impact on West Africa. The effect of aggregation on West Africa, Central Africa, and North Africa is relatively limited. The political systems have a significant effect on foreign investment in Africa as a whole, but have limited effects on North Africa and East Africa. The resource endowment is a key factor for foreign companies' choice of location in Africa, but it has little impact on North Africa and East Africa. Infrastructure generally have little impact on FDI in Africa, except southern Africa.

Key words: FDI, spatial and temporal evolvement, theil index, location selection factor, Africa

王贤, 刘柄麟, 张振克. 非洲外商直接投资的时空变化与影响因素[J]. 世界地理研究, 2020, 29(6): 1125-1135.

Xian WANG, Binglin LIU, Zhenke ZHANG. Analysis of the spatio-temporal distribution of Foreign Direct Investment in Africa and its influencing factors[J]. World Regional Studies, 2020, 29(6): 1125-1135.

图/表 7

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	变量	指标	均值	最大值	最小值	标准差	数据来源
解释变量	经济社会环境因素	经济发展水平lnGDP	7.18	10.27	5.06	1.10	2006—2018非洲统计年鉴
		对外开放度lnOPEN	3.66	5.35	2.37	0.44	联合国统计司
		聚集效应CFDI	13.22	16.45	-7.51	0.13	2018—2007全球投资报告
		经济自由度lnFREE	3.96	4.34	3.06	0.17	美国传统基金会
		营商便利度lnBUSI	4.85	5.25	2.83	0.43	全球营商环境报告
	政治制度因素	清廉指数lnCPI	3.38	4.17	0.69	0.35	透明国际组织
	政治制度因素	民主权利VA 政治稳定性PS 政府效率GE 监督质量RQ 法制程度RL 腐败控制CC	-0.59 0.58 -0.74 -0.68 -0.67 -0.62	0.99 1.20 1.04 1.12 1.00 1.04	-2.22 -2.70 -1.89 -2.27 -1.85 -1.83	0.73 0.87 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.61	世界银行WGI数据库*
	资源禀赋	劳动力禀赋lnLAB	3.68	4.49	2.26	0.46	世界银行
	资源禀赋	自然资源禀赋lnRENT	2.06	4.15	-6.77	1.59	世界银行
	基础设施	电信lnTELE	0.22	3.49	-5.12	1.56	国际电信联盟
被解释变量		人均外商直接投资FDI	6.52	11.12	4.78	1.32	2007—2018非洲统计年鉴

	变量	指标	均值	最大值	最小值	标准差	数据来源
解释变量	经济社会环境因素	经济发展水平lnGDP	7.18	10.27	5.06	1.10	2006—2018非洲统计年鉴
		对外开放度lnOPEN	3.66	5.35	2.37	0.44	联合国统计司
		聚集效应CFDI	13.22	16.45	-7.51	0.13	2018—2007全球投资报告
		经济自由度lnFREE	3.96	4.34	3.06	0.17	美国传统基金会
		营商便利度lnBUSI	4.85	5.25	2.83	0.43	全球营商环境报告
	政治制度因素	清廉指数lnCPI	3.38	4.17	0.69	0.35	透明国际组织
	政治制度因素	民主权利VA 政治稳定性PS 政府效率GE 监督质量RQ 法制程度RL 腐败控制CC	-0.59 0.58 -0.74 -0.68 -0.67 -0.62	0.99 1.20 1.04 1.12 1.00 1.04	-2.22 -2.70 -1.89 -2.27 -1.85 -1.83	0.73 0.87 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.61	世界银行WGI数据库*
	资源禀赋	劳动力禀赋lnLAB	3.68	4.49	2.26	0.46	世界银行
	资源禀赋	自然资源禀赋lnRENT	2.06	4.15	-6.77	1.59	世界银行
	基础设施	电信lnTELE	0.22	3.49	-5.12	1.56	国际电信联盟
被解释变量		人均外商直接投资FDI	6.52	11.12	4.78	1.32	2007—2018非洲统计年鉴

年份	区域内部差异贡献率	区域间差异贡献率
2006	67.50%	32.50%
2007	85.68%	14.32%
2008	98.69%	1.31%
2009	93.10%	6.90%
2010	78.95%	21.05%
2011	88.03%	11.97%
2012	95.67%	4.33%
2013	96.89%	3.11%
2014	94.64%	5.36%
2015	89.58%	10.42%
2016	93.93%	6.07%
2017	89.05%	10.95%

年份	区域内部差异贡献率	区域间差异贡献率
2006	67.50%	32.50%
2007	85.68%	14.32%
2008	98.69%	1.31%
2009	93.10%	6.90%
2010	78.95%	21.05%
2011	88.03%	11.97%
2012	95.67%	4.33%
2013	96.89%	3.11%
2014	94.64%	5.36%
2015	89.58%	10.42%
2016	93.93%	6.07%
2017	89.05%	10.95%

年份	北非	西非	中非	东非	南部非洲
2006	20.52%	38.45%	15.64%	4.24%	21.14%
2007	17.69%	47.22%	15.03%	4.11%	15.94%
2008	9.23%	59.80%	19.63%	8.40%	2.94 %
2009	5.05%	70.66%	10.09%	7.44%	6.77 %
2010	1.72%	62.13%	7.18%	3.04%	25.93%
2011	16.74%	53.72%	5.02%	2.01%	22.51%
2012	1.90%	62.64%	4.14%	1.61%	29.70%
2013	2.67%	65.53%	0.79%	0.69%	30.32%
2014	3.40%	70.86%	5.73%	0.96%	19.06%
2015	6.76%	60.41%	8.92%	1.21%	22.71%
2016	2.84%	67.58%	11.38%	3.11%	15.08%
2017	6.71%	61.22%	3.59%	2.59%	25.90%