中国对美国州层面直接投资时空演变与驱动因素探究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2023.01.2020744

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

改革开放以来，中国的外商直接投资经历了从“引进来”到“走出去”的发展历程。2016与2017年，中国对外直接投资（COFDI）流量与存量先后跃升至全球第二位，由外商直接投资吸收国转变为世界主要对外直接投资国之一。在中美双方经贸合作伙伴关系持续深入背景下，美国已成为中国对外直接投资首位东道国。投资是落于具体地域的，不同尺度地域投资环境的差异性是导致中国对美直接投资时空分异的重要原因。立足于中国（投资母国）视角，以美国州内各选区为研究地域尺度，利用空间自相关等方法，对美国典型州——得克萨斯州的中国对外直接投资的时空格局与演变特征进行了探讨，同时引入面板数据计量模型对COFDI在得州内各选区间投资驱动因素进行了实证分析。结果表明：①得州内COFDI存量持续增长，但阶段性特征明显；②得州内COFDI以国有企业并购为主，且主要集中在能源产业；③COFDI州内集聚程度较弱，局部选区间多呈现出相异属性集聚特征；④市场规模、劳工人数、交通通达性、华人移民数对COFDI具有正向促进作用，劳动成本、教育水平、税率、经济密度对COFDI具有不同程度的负向作用。研究结果可为中国政府、跨国企业在对美投资过程中提供决策参考。

关键词: 中国对外直接投资, 时空格局, 驱动因素, 得克萨斯州, 美国

Abstract:

Since the reform and opening up, China's foreign direct investment has experienced a development process from "bringing in" to "going out". In 2016 and 2017, the flow and stock of China's outward foreign direct investment (COFDI) rose to the second place in the world, and China has changed from a country absorbing foreign direct investment to one of the world's leading foreign investors. Under the background of deepening economic and trade cooperation between China and the United States, the United States has become the first host country for COFDI. The diversity and complexity of investment environment lead to the spatial and temporal differentiation of COFDI in the United States. Using the methods of spatial autocorrelation analysis, this paper investigated the spatial-temporal pattern and evolution characteristics of COFDI in Texas based on congressional district-level data. Then this study applied panel regression analysis to examine Texas intrastate driving factors of COFDI. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The stock of COFDI in Texas continues to increase while the whole process can be divided into different stages according to growth rate. (2) Government investment and Cross-border Mergers Acquisitions (M&A) account for a large portion of COFDI and these related establishments mainly distributed in energy industry. (3) Spatial concentration of COFDI is weak in Texas while the local spatial autocorrelation analysis shows that opposite attribute aggregation exists between congressional districts. (4) Market size, labor force, traffic accessibility, Chinese immigrants have promoted COFDI in Texas while labor cost, educational attainment, total tax rate, economic density are negatively related to COFDI. The above conclusions can provide decision-making reference for Chinese government and multinational enterprises in the process of investment in the United States.

Key words: COFDI, spatial-temporal pattern, driving factors, Texas, United States

王孟林, 陈瑛, 张婷婷. 中国对美国州层面直接投资时空演变与驱动因素探究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(1): 54-66.

Menglin WANG, Ying CHEN, Tingting ZHANG. Spatial-temporal evolution and driving factors of intrastate COFDI in the United States: A case study of Texas[J]. World Regional Studies, 2023, 32(1): 54-66.

图/表 9

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年份	Moran's I	sd	P-value
2014	-0.118^*	0.101	0.07
2015	-0.034	0.100	0.48
2016	-0.112	0.096	0.19
2017	-0.105	0.089	0.20

年份	Moran's I	sd	P-value
2014	-0.118^*	0.101	0.07
2015	-0.034	0.100	0.48
2016	-0.112	0.096	0.19
2017	-0.105	0.089	0.20

类型	变量名称	指标/ 单位	指标含义	数据源	预期符号
被解释变量	中国对得州各选区对外直接投资存量（COFDI）/百万美元		中国对得州36个选区的直接投资存量	荣鼎集团
解释变量	市场规模	家庭总收入（THI）/ 美元	得州各选区历年家庭总收入	美国人口普查局	＋
	劳动力	劳工人数（LAB）/ 人	各选区历年劳工总人数	美国人口普查局	＋
		家庭收入中位数（MHI）/ 美元	各选区历年家庭收入中位数		-
		高中毕业率（HSC）/%	各选区历年25岁以上成年人口获得高中以上学位人口比重		＋
	交通要素	公路网密度（ROAD）/（km/km²）	各选区一二级公路长度/各选区面积	美国人口普查局	＋
	税收与政策	总税率（TTR）/ %	各选区地方税总税率	美国财政官员协会	－
	集聚经济	经济密度（ECD）/ (美元/km²)	各选区家庭总收入/得州各选区面积	美国人口普查局	＋
	文化因素	华人移民数（CHI）/ 人	各选区华人移民数	美国人口普查局	＋

类型	变量名称	指标/ 单位	指标含义	数据源	预期符号
被解释变量	中国对得州各选区对外直接投资存量（COFDI）/百万美元		中国对得州36个选区的直接投资存量	荣鼎集团
解释变量	市场规模	家庭总收入（THI）/ 美元	得州各选区历年家庭总收入	美国人口普查局	＋
	劳动力	劳工人数（LAB）/ 人	各选区历年劳工总人数	美国人口普查局	＋
		家庭收入中位数（MHI）/ 美元	各选区历年家庭收入中位数		-
		高中毕业率（HSC）/%	各选区历年25岁以上成年人口获得高中以上学位人口比重		＋
	交通要素	公路网密度（ROAD）/（km/km²）	各选区一二级公路长度/各选区面积	美国人口普查局	＋
	税收与政策	总税率（TTR）/ %	各选区地方税总税率	美国财政官员协会	－
	集聚经济	经济密度（ECD）/ (美元/km²)	各选区家庭总收入/得州各选区面积	美国人口普查局	＋
	文化因素	华人移民数（CHI）/ 人	各选区华人移民数	美国人口普查局	＋

变量	回归系数	标准误	t-Statistic	Prob.
THI	1.212	0.493	4.557	<0.01
LAB	0.332	0.666	1.498	<0.05
MHI	-0.632	0.682	-4.262	<0.01
HSC	-0.171	0.854	-4.033	<0.01
ROAD	0.637	0.414	2.538	<0.05
TTR	-1.220	1.024	-3.919	<0.01
ECD	-0.461	0.255	-1.809	<0.05
CHI	0.183	0.077	2.366	<0.05
CONS	-197.619	15.182	-13.016	<0.01