世界地理研究 ›› 2023, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (3): 64-75.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2023.03.2021987
收稿日期:
2021-12-27
修回日期:
2022-04-12
出版日期:
2023-03-15
发布日期:
2023-04-04
通讯作者:
胡晓辉
作者简介:
李连刚(1991—),男,讲师,博士,研究方向为区域经济韧性,E-mail:llg911208@163.com。
基金资助:
Liangang LI1(), Xiaohui HU2,3()
Received:
2021-12-27
Revised:
2022-04-12
Online:
2023-03-15
Published:
2023-04-04
Contact:
Xiaohui HU
摘要:
新冠疫情对区域经济体带来前所未有的冲击,其影响对象、空间尺度和传播规律均有别于以往任何冲击。探究新冠疫情冲击背景下区域经济的应对与适应,为区域经济韧性研究提供了新的议题。在理解新冠疫情的冲击特征和发展态势基础上,论文从抵抗力角度出发,测度了中国省域经济韧性,分析了造成经济韧性时空差异的影响因素。研究发现:(1)不同维度下区域经济韧性存在差异性与复杂性,GDP维度抵抗力较高,低抵抗力区域集中在中部和东北地区;进出口维度抵抗力最低,边疆地区进出口抵抗力更低;消费维度抵抗力较低,长期来看,东部地区消费抵抗力较高。(2)产业结构属性对区域经济韧性影响显著。从较长时段看,高专业化对韧性有显著促进作用;相关多样化在疫情发生一段时间后对韧性起积极促进作用,非相关多样化长期对区域经济韧性起消极作用。(3)政府调控能力对韧性有显著促进作用,对外依赖有利于区域经济积极应对疫情冲击。
李连刚, 胡晓辉. 新冠肺炎疫情下中国区域经济韧性时空格局与影响因素分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(3): 64-75.
Liangang LI, Xiaohui HU. Analysis on the spatial-temporal pattern and influencing factors of regional economic resilience in China under the COVID-19 pandemic[J]. World Regional Studies, 2023, 32(3): 64-75.
变量 | 定义 | 符号 |
---|---|---|
区域经济韧性 | 抵抗力指数 | Resistance |
专业化 | 赫芬达尔—赫希曼指数 | spc |
多样化 | 相关多样化指数 | rv |
非相关多样化指数 | urv | |
产业结构 | 二产与三产增加值比值 | ind |
政府调控 | 疫情问责官员/人 | gov |
对外依赖 | 进出口总额占GDP比重 | ope |
疫情状况 | 新冠肺炎确诊人数/人 | cof |
卫生投入 | 财政支出中卫生支出比重 | hel |
人口集聚 | 人口密度/(人/km2) | pop |
表1 相关变量内涵
Tab.1 The connotation of related variables
变量 | 定义 | 符号 |
---|---|---|
区域经济韧性 | 抵抗力指数 | Resistance |
专业化 | 赫芬达尔—赫希曼指数 | spc |
多样化 | 相关多样化指数 | rv |
非相关多样化指数 | urv | |
产业结构 | 二产与三产增加值比值 | ind |
政府调控 | 疫情问责官员/人 | gov |
对外依赖 | 进出口总额占GDP比重 | ope |
疫情状况 | 新冠肺炎确诊人数/人 | cof |
卫生投入 | 财政支出中卫生支出比重 | hel |
人口集聚 | 人口密度/(人/km2) | pop |
变量 | Q1 | Q1—Q2 | Q1—Q3 | Q1—Q4 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
常数 | 10.34***(6.24*) | 5.83* (1.37) | 31.91***(23.64***) | 15.21*(6.11) | 51.18***(38.11***) | 20.85*(12.24*) | 11.80***(8.84***) | 5.56**(3.33**) |
spc | 1.14 (3.08*) | -1.24(-0.49) | 5.76**(11.31***) | -3.47*(-1.69) | 13.01***(18.36***) | -4.16 (-0.85) | 2.94***(4.21***) | -0.57 (0.05) |
rv | 3.89 (7.53) | 16.44**(27.11**) | 32.95***(39.96**) | 6.69**(8.84**) | ||||
urv | -6.71**(-7.75) | -24.00***(-28.49**) | -40.98***(-42.21**) | -8.45***(-9.41**) | ||||
ind | -0.04 (-0.69) | -0.21(-0.79) | 0.16 (-1.34) | -0.24 (-1.68) | -1.41 (-3.13) | -1.85 (-3.64) | -0.37(-0.78) | -0.46(-0.91) |
ope | 0.43**(0.09) | 0.45***(-0.16) | 0.95** (-0.17) | 0.97** (-0.43) | 1.66***(-0.19) | 1.62***(-0.58) | 0.29*(-0.12) | 0.28**(-0.19) |
gov | -0.08(-0.13) | -0.06(-0.13) | -0.32*(-0.47*) | -0.26(-0.48*) | -0.46*(-0.67**) | -0.35(-0.68*) | -0.15**(-0.19**) | -0.13**(-0.19**) |
cof | -0.56*** | -0.57*** | -1.23*** | -1.28*** | -1.79*** | -1.89*** | -0.38*** | -0.40*** |
hel | 2.69*** | 2.14*** | 6.30*** | 4.52** | 8.23*** | 5.28** | 1.89*** | 1.28** |
pop | 0.39 | 0.43 | 0.76 | 0.88 | 1.39 | 1.53 | 0.29 | 0.33 |
R2 | 0.75 (0.19) | 0.89 (0.20) | 0.77 (0.38) | 0.82 (0.41) | 0.80 (0.39) | 0.84 (0.42) | 0.78 (0.44) | 0.81 (0.48) |
表2 回归结果
Tab.2 The regression results
变量 | Q1 | Q1—Q2 | Q1—Q3 | Q1—Q4 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
常数 | 10.34***(6.24*) | 5.83* (1.37) | 31.91***(23.64***) | 15.21*(6.11) | 51.18***(38.11***) | 20.85*(12.24*) | 11.80***(8.84***) | 5.56**(3.33**) |
spc | 1.14 (3.08*) | -1.24(-0.49) | 5.76**(11.31***) | -3.47*(-1.69) | 13.01***(18.36***) | -4.16 (-0.85) | 2.94***(4.21***) | -0.57 (0.05) |
rv | 3.89 (7.53) | 16.44**(27.11**) | 32.95***(39.96**) | 6.69**(8.84**) | ||||
urv | -6.71**(-7.75) | -24.00***(-28.49**) | -40.98***(-42.21**) | -8.45***(-9.41**) | ||||
ind | -0.04 (-0.69) | -0.21(-0.79) | 0.16 (-1.34) | -0.24 (-1.68) | -1.41 (-3.13) | -1.85 (-3.64) | -0.37(-0.78) | -0.46(-0.91) |
ope | 0.43**(0.09) | 0.45***(-0.16) | 0.95** (-0.17) | 0.97** (-0.43) | 1.66***(-0.19) | 1.62***(-0.58) | 0.29*(-0.12) | 0.28**(-0.19) |
gov | -0.08(-0.13) | -0.06(-0.13) | -0.32*(-0.47*) | -0.26(-0.48*) | -0.46*(-0.67**) | -0.35(-0.68*) | -0.15**(-0.19**) | -0.13**(-0.19**) |
cof | -0.56*** | -0.57*** | -1.23*** | -1.28*** | -1.79*** | -1.89*** | -0.38*** | -0.40*** |
hel | 2.69*** | 2.14*** | 6.30*** | 4.52** | 8.23*** | 5.28** | 1.89*** | 1.28** |
pop | 0.39 | 0.43 | 0.76 | 0.88 | 1.39 | 1.53 | 0.29 | 0.33 |
R2 | 0.75 (0.19) | 0.89 (0.20) | 0.77 (0.38) | 0.82 (0.41) | 0.80 (0.39) | 0.84 (0.42) | 0.78 (0.44) | 0.81 (0.48) |
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