主管单位:中国科学技术协会
主办单位:中国地理学会
承办单位:华东师范大学

世界地理研究 ›› 2023, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (3): 64-75.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2023.03.2021987

• 城市与区域 • 上一篇    下一篇

新冠肺炎疫情下中国区域经济韧性时空格局与影响因素分析

李连刚1(), 胡晓辉2,3()   

  1. 1.山东师范大学地理与环境学院,济南 250358
    2.南京师范大学地理科学学院/江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心,南京 210023
    3.浙江省城市治理研究中心,杭州 310002
  • 收稿日期:2021-12-27 修回日期:2022-04-12 出版日期:2023-03-15 发布日期:2023-04-04
  • 通讯作者: 胡晓辉
  • 作者简介:李连刚(1991—),男,讲师,博士,研究方向为区域经济韧性,E-mail:llg911208@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(42101161);国家社会科学基金项目(22BJL109)

Analysis on the spatial-temporal pattern and influencing factors of regional economic resilience in China under the COVID-19 pandemic

Liangang LI1(), Xiaohui HU2,3()   

  1. 1.College of Geography and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Jinan 250358, China
    2.School of Geography, Nanjing Normal University, Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China
    3.Zhejiang Urban Governance Studies Center, Hangzhou 311021, China
  • Received:2021-12-27 Revised:2022-04-12 Online:2023-03-15 Published:2023-04-04
  • Contact: Xiaohui HU

摘要:

新冠疫情对区域经济体带来前所未有的冲击,其影响对象、空间尺度和传播规律均有别于以往任何冲击。探究新冠疫情冲击背景下区域经济的应对与适应,为区域经济韧性研究提供了新的议题。在理解新冠疫情的冲击特征和发展态势基础上,论文从抵抗力角度出发,测度了中国省域经济韧性,分析了造成经济韧性时空差异的影响因素。研究发现:(1)不同维度下区域经济韧性存在差异性与复杂性,GDP维度抵抗力较高,低抵抗力区域集中在中部和东北地区;进出口维度抵抗力最低,边疆地区进出口抵抗力更低;消费维度抵抗力较低,长期来看,东部地区消费抵抗力较高。(2)产业结构属性对区域经济韧性影响显著。从较长时段看,高专业化对韧性有显著促进作用;相关多样化在疫情发生一段时间后对韧性起积极促进作用,非相关多样化长期对区域经济韧性起消极作用。(3)政府调控能力对韧性有显著促进作用,对外依赖有利于区域经济积极应对疫情冲击。

关键词: 新冠疫情, 区域经济韧性, 时空格局, 影响因素, 中国

Abstract:

The pandemic (COVID-19) crisis has brought an unprecedented shock on regional economies. The impact object, spatial scale and transmission nature of the shock are different from any previous shocks. Exploring the response and adaptation of regional economy under the new shock provides a new topic for the study of regional economic resilience. Drawing upon the current understanding of the characteristics and developmental trend of COVID-19, this paper measured the economic resilience of China's provinces from the perspective of resistance. It also analyzed the influencing factors of the patial-temporal differences in economic resilience.The results show that: (1) There are differences and complexity in regional economic resilience under different dimensions. The resistance of GDP dimension is high, and the regions with low resistance are concentrated in the central and northeast China. The resistance of import and export dimension is the lowest, and the resistance of import and export in border areas is lower. The resistance of consumption dimension is relatively low. In the long run, the resistance of consumption in the eastern China is high. (2) The attributes of regional industrial structure still play a key role in affecting regional economic resilience. For a long time, a higher degree of specialization significantly promotes resilience. Moreover, related diversification plays a positive role in promoting resilience after the outbreak of the pandemic for a period of time, while unrelated diversification plays a negative role in regional economic resilience for a long time. (3) Governance regulation has a significant effect on regional resilience. Regional external dependence is conducive to the regional economy to actively respond to the pandemic shock.

Key words: COVID-19 pandemic, regional economic resilience, spatial-temporal pattern, influence factors, China