环境保护与经济发展的互动关系

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2023.04.2021173

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

环境保护与经济发展是世界面临的两大难题。本文选取2005—2018年的崇明时序数据，通过熵值法、格兰杰因果检验、VAR模型、脉冲响应函数以及方差分解等方法对环境保护与经济发展之间的互动关系进行分析。研究表明：崇明环境保护水平和经济发展水平总体得到提升，互为因果关系；环境保护水平对经济发展水平的冲击响应表现为正向效应，这主要得益于上海对崇明环境保护“硬输血”的直接财政支持，而经济发展水平对环境保护水平的冲击响应为先降后升的“V”型的负向影响，这与市区两级政府采取激励导向的“软输血”制度安排有关；环境保护水平对经济发展水平起着稳定的支撑作用，而经济发展水平对环境保护水平的影响效果不明显。最后提出了促进崇明经济发展和环境保护从“硬输血”和“弱输血”到“自我造血”的政策建议。

关键词: 环境保护, 经济发展, VAR模型, 崇明

Abstract:

Environmental protection and economic development is a global issue. Analyzing the construction process of Shanghai Chongming Eco-Island is helpful to understand the interactive relationship between them. Based on the time series data, this paper first used the entropy method to measure Chongming's environmental protection level and economic development level, then used Granger causality test, VAR model, pulse response function and variance decomposition to analyze the interaction between environmental protection and economic development in Chongming from 2005 to 2018. The results show that: Chongming's levels of environmental protection and economic development have generally improved from 2005 to 2018 and present two-way Granger causality. The economic development level has a positive effect on the environmental protection level, while the environmental protection level has a negative effect on the economic development level. The interaction between environmental protection and economic development are different in time and intensity. The impact of economic development on environmental protection is positive, meaning that Chongming's economic development contributes to environmental protection, but the effect gradually decreases over time. The main reason for this result is Shanghai's direct financial support. The influence of environmental protection on economic development is negative and presents the characteristics of "decreased first and then increased", which is mainly due to the incentive mechanism arrangements adopted by the two-tiered government. Although with the improvement of the environmental protection level, the negative effects on economic development will gradually weaken but will not disappear. Environmental protection still restricts economic development to a certain extent. The results of variance decomposition analysis show that environmental protection makes great contribution to the economic development,whereas economic development exerts less contribution on environmental protection. Based on the empirical results, the study finally puts forward the corresponding recommendations for Chongming to realize the coordinated development of economic development and environmental protection.

Key words: environmental protection, economic development, VAR model, Chongming

章志琼, 何丹. 环境保护与经济发展的互动关系[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(4): 84-95.

Zhiqiong ZHANG, Dan HE. Interaction between environmental protection and economic development[J]. World Regional Studies, 2023, 32(4): 84-95.

图/表 12

参考文献 39

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一级指标	二级指标	三级指标
环境保护水平	环境治理	工业废水排放达标率/%
		环境保护投资总额/亿元
		工业固体废弃物综合利用率/%
	生态保护	环境空气质量优良率/%
		地面水质达标率/%
		饮用水源水质达标率/%
经济发展水平	经济规模	增加值/亿元；区级财政收入/亿元；社会消费品零售额/亿元；固定资产投资额/亿元；年末城乡居民储蓄余额/万元
	经济效益	人均增加值/元；人均区级财政收入/元；人均社会消费品零售额/元；人均固定资产投资额/元；人均年末城乡居民储蓄余额/元
	经济增长	增加值增长率/%
	经济结构	非农产业比重/%

一级指标	二级指标	三级指标
环境保护水平	环境治理	工业废水排放达标率/%
		环境保护投资总额/亿元
		工业固体废弃物综合利用率/%
	生态保护	环境空气质量优良率/%
		地面水质达标率/%
		饮用水源水质达标率/%
经济发展水平	经济规模	增加值/亿元；区级财政收入/亿元；社会消费品零售额/亿元；固定资产投资额/亿元；年末城乡居民储蓄余额/万元
	经济效益	人均增加值/元；人均区级财政收入/元；人均社会消费品零售额/元；人均固定资产投资额/元；人均年末城乡居民储蓄余额/元
	经济增长	增加值增长率/%
	经济结构	非农产业比重/%

指标数据	信息熵	权重
环境空气质量优良率	0.908 7	0.208 6
地面水质达标率	0.913 9	0.226 5
饮用水源水质达标率	0.956 0	0.115 8
工业废水排放达标率	0.968 7	0.082 4
环境保护投资总额	0.939 3	0.240 2
工业固体废弃物综合利用率	0.951 9	0.126 5

指标数据	信息熵	权重
环境空气质量优良率	0.908 7	0.208 6
地面水质达标率	0.913 9	0.226 5
饮用水源水质达标率	0.956 0	0.115 8
工业废水排放达标率	0.968 7	0.082 4
环境保护投资总额	0.939 3	0.240 2
工业固体废弃物综合利用率	0.951 9	0.126 5

指标数据	信息熵	权重	指标数据	信息熵	权重
增加值	0.906 7	0.072 9	人均增加值	0.905 1	0.074 1
固定资产投资额	0.908 2	0.071 7	人均固定资产投资额	0.910 2	0.070 1
社会消费品零售额	0.896 7	0.080 7	人均社会消费品零售额	0.896 6	0.080 7
区级财政收入	0.859 8	0.109 5	人均区级收入	0.858 7	0.110 3
年末城乡居民储蓄余额	0.895 3	0.081 8	人均城年末乡居民储蓄余额	0.894 2	0.082 6
增加值增长率	0.846 5	0.119 9	非农产业比重	0.941 3	0.045 8