技术创新的路径突破与地方突破如何影响绿色转型——以中国四大城市群为例

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2026.06.20250479

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

绿色转型是全球核心议题，技术创新是推动其进程的关键因素。然而，现有研究较少从演化经济地理学的路径和地方双重视角开展实证分析，以揭示技术创新对绿色转型的影响机制。本研究基于2005—2019年中国四大城市群的发明专利数据，通过识别利基技术与不相关技术，测度技术引力度，并采用固定效应回归模型，将绿色转型过程解构为路径突破与地方突破两个关键维度，从而揭示技术创新推动城市绿色转型的4种模式。研究结果表明：①绿色转型模式在城市群间存在显著差异，珠三角城市群以跳跃式或扩展适应式转型占比最高，长三角城市群形成两部分横向发展转型高地，京津冀和成渝城市群转型模式空间分布失衡；②随着经济水平的提升，城市绿色转型模式呈现“复制式-扩展适应式-跳跃式”的演化趋势，大部分转型相对落后的城市在路径利基创新层面难以突破，而城市群中极少数发达城市同时拥有较高地方突破和路径突破能力；③整体而言，技术创新的路径突破性推动了城市的绿色转型，但4个城市群的绿色转型机制各具鲜明特征。最后，本研究针对不同转型模式和四大城市群分别给出针对性政策建议。

关键词: 绿色转型, 中国四大城市群, 技术创新, 路径突破, 地方突破

Abstract:

Technological innovation is a key factor for facilitating the global green transition. However, few studies have empirically examined how technological innovation affects green transition from the path and place perspectives within the evolutionary economic geography framework. Using patent data (2005—2019) from China's four major urban agglomerations (Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and Chengdu-Chongqing), we constructed two indicators—path breakthrough and place breakthrough—to identify four modes of urban green transition. We analyzed the relationship between these indicators and green transition using a fixed-effects regression model. The results show that: ① Green transition modes differ significantly across urban agglomerations. The Pearl River Delta has the highest proportion of cities with saltation or exaptation; the Yangtze River Delta has formed two horizontal spatial transition clusters of developmental transition highlands; while the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Chengdu-Chongqing agglomerations exhibit a highly unbalanced distribution of transition modes. ② With rising economic levels, urban green transition modes generally follow an evolutionary trend of "replication–exaptation–saltation". Most lagging cities struggle to break through in path niche innovation and unrelated technology, whereas only a few developed cities achieve both high place breakthrough and path breakthrough. ③Path breakthrough promotes urban green transition, though there're marked differences in the mechanisms underlying the transition among urban agglomerations. Finally, we provided targeted policy recommendations for different transition modes and the four major urban agglomerations.

Key words: green transition, China's four major urban agglomerations, technological innovation, path breakthrough, place breakthrough

戴佳祺, 杨静銮, 张梦竹. 技术创新的路径突破与地方突破如何影响绿色转型——以中国四大城市群为例[J]. 世界地理研究, 2026, 35(6): 122-137.

Jiaqi DAI, Jingluan YANG, Mengzhu ZHANG. How do the path breakthrough and place breakthrough of technological innovation affect the green transition? In the case of China's four major urban agglomerations[J]. World Regional Studies, 2026, 35(6): 122-137.

图/表 12

图 1 理论框架

Fig.1 Theoretical framework

图 2 转型模式框架

Fig.2 Transition mode framework

图 3 研究技术路线

Fig.3 Research technology route

图 4 2015—2019年深圳市技术空间

Fig.4 Technology space of Shenzhen （2015-2019）

图 5 四大城市群路径突破与地方突破表现

Fig.5 Path breakthrough and place breakthrough of China’s four major urban agglomerations

图 6 城市转型模式的变化

Fig.6 The change of urban transition mode

图 7 两阶段指标表现的地理分布注：此图基于自然资源部标准地图服务网站审图号为GS（2023）2767号的标准地图绘制，底图无修改。

Fig.7 The geographical distribution of two-stage indicator performance

表 1 变量信息描述

Tab. 1 Variable information description

变量类型	变量符号	变量描述	构成公式
因变量	Tran	城市绿色全要素生产率	2.3.4公式计算
解释变量	PaRG	城市转型路径具有突破性	2.3.3公式计算
解释变量	PlRG	城市转型具有地方性和突破性	2.3.3公式计算
控制变量	eco	地方经济发展水平	人均地区生产总值的对数
控制变量	pop	地方人口数量	地方人口数量的对数
调节变量	env	地方环境规制程度	工业污染治理完成投资额/工业增加值

表 2 变量描述性统计

Tab. 2 Descriptive statistics for variables

变量	均值	标准差	最大值	最小值	方差膨胀因子
Tran	1.031	0.043	1.214	0.938	-
PaRG	0.272	0.151	0.690	0.023	4.450
PlRG	0.011	0.024	0.142	0.000	2.030
eco	11.048	0.576	12.175	9.779	2.090
pop	6.281	0.710	8.072	4.294	1.710
env	0.941	0.255	3.295	0.444	2.260

表 3 变量间相关性

Tab. 3 Correlation between variables

变量	Tran	PaRG	PlRG	eco	pop	env
Tran	1
PaRG	0.305	1
PlRG	0.204	0.700	1
eco	0.483	0.689	0.405	1
pop	0.095	0.6134	0.410	0.285	1
env	0.017	0.057	-0.023	0.114	0.044	1

表 4 多元回归结果

Tab. 4 The results of a multiple regression

变量	（1）所有城市群	（2）珠三角城市群	（3）京津冀城市群	（4）长三角城市群	（5）成渝城市群
$P a R G$	0.081^*(0.047)	0.110^*（0.058）	－0.114(0.076)	－0.088（0.101）	0.243^*（0.121）
$P l R G$	0.034(0.311)	－0.021（0.253）	0.472^*（0.253）	－1.167^***（0.368）	0.717^***（0.196）
eco	0.018(0.057)	－0.097(0.061)	－0.047(0.076)	0.042(0.059)	－0.391(0.112)
pop	0.0064(0.039)	－0.049(0.035)	－0.015(0.099)	0.055(0.056)	－0.082(0.137)
观测值	195	27	39	81	48
固定效应拟合度	0.509	0.742	0.557	0.758	0.622
常数项	是	是	是	是	是
个体固定效应	是	是	是	是	是
时间固定效应	是	是	是	是	是

表 4 多元回归结果

Tab. 4 The results of a multiple regression

变量	（1）所有城市群	（2）珠三角城市群	（3）京津冀城市群	（4）长三角城市群	（5）成渝城市群
$P a R G$	0.081^*(0.047)	0.110^*（0.058）	－0.114(0.076)	－0.088（0.101）	0.243^*（0.121）
$P l R G$	0.034(0.311)	－0.021（0.253）	0.472^*（0.253）	－1.167^***（0.368）	0.717^***（0.196）
eco	0.018(0.057)	－0.097(0.061)	－0.047(0.076)	0.042(0.059)	－0.391(0.112)
pop	0.0064(0.039)	－0.049(0.035)	－0.015(0.099)	0.055(0.056)	－0.082(0.137)
观测值	195	27	39	81	48
固定效应拟合度	0.509	0.742	0.557	0.758	0.622
常数项	是	是	是	是	是
个体固定效应	是	是	是	是	是
时间固定效应	是	是	是	是	是

表 5 调节变量结果

Tab. 5 Results of the moderating variable

变量	（1）所有城市群	（2）珠三角城市群	（3）京津冀城市群	（4）长三角城市群	（5）成渝城市群
$P a R G$	0.096^*（0.051）	－1.769(0.182)	－0.066(0.085)	－0.134(0.095)	0.259^*(0.137)
$P l R G$	－0.192^*（0.243）	1.139^*(0.542)	0.445^**(0.196)	－1.221^***(0.345)	－0.203(0.677)
env	－0.028^**（0.013）	－0.078^*（0.036）	－0.001^***（0.014）	0.009（0.036）	－0.104^*（0.056）
PaRG×env	0.359^*（0.181）	－1.652（0.930）	－0.637^**（0.286）	0.599^**（0.237）	0.478^**（0.219）
PlRG×env	－1.931^*（1.073）	6.336^*（3.393）	－0.497（1.504）	－8.596^*（4.516）	－3.679（2.290）
eco	0.029^**（0.062）	－0.169^***(0.041)	0.192(0.116)	0.092(0.066)	－0.319^**(0.110)
pop	0.079^**（0.037）	－0.087(0.061)	0.020^**(0.058)	0.060(0.055)	0.024(0.121)
观测值	195	27	39	81	48
固定效应拟合度	0.549	0.862	0.714	0.806	0.719
常数项	是	是	是	是	是
个体固定效应	是	是	是	是	是
时间固定效应	是	是	是	是	是

表 5 调节变量结果

Tab. 5 Results of the moderating variable

变量	（1）所有城市群	（2）珠三角城市群	（3）京津冀城市群	（4）长三角城市群	（5）成渝城市群
$P a R G$	0.096^*（0.051）	－1.769(0.182)	－0.066(0.085)	－0.134(0.095)	0.259^*(0.137)
$P l R G$	－0.192^*（0.243）	1.139^*(0.542)	0.445^**(0.196)	－1.221^***(0.345)	－0.203(0.677)
env	－0.028^**（0.013）	－0.078^*（0.036）	－0.001^***（0.014）	0.009（0.036）	－0.104^*（0.056）
PaRG×env	0.359^*（0.181）	－1.652（0.930）	－0.637^**（0.286）	0.599^**（0.237）	0.478^**（0.219）
PlRG×env	－1.931^*（1.073）	6.336^*（3.393）	－0.497（1.504）	－8.596^*（4.516）	－3.679（2.290）
eco	0.029^**（0.062）	－0.169^***(0.041)	0.192(0.116)	0.092(0.066)	－0.319^**(0.110)
pop	0.079^**（0.037）	－0.087(0.061)	0.020^**(0.058)	0.060(0.055)	0.024(0.121)
观测值	195	27	39	81	48
固定效应拟合度	0.549	0.862	0.714	0.806	0.719
常数项	是	是	是	是	是
个体固定效应	是	是	是	是	是
时间固定效应	是	是	是	是	是

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