Research on spatial spread and control of urban epidemic by social network

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2022.03.2020617

Abstract

Abstract:

This paper analyed the spatial diffusion characteristics of urban epidemic situation and its control measures of COVID-19 with the help of data mining method, spatial analysis and social network analysis based on the confirmed cases data information of COVID-19 released by Sanitation and Health Committee of Shenzhen. Research shows some results as follow. First, judging from the basic characteristics of epidemiology, the population structure of confirmed cases is complex with a wide range of sources, long duration, and a complicated hysteresis cycle for paroxysm. Second, from the aspect of communication networks within the family and between couples, the spread of the COVID-19 has a strong spatial aggregation feature. Third, judging from the transmission network of key epidemic and non-epidemic areas, the spread of COVID-19 has obvious spatial mobility characteristics. Fourth, from the perspective of social activity communication networks, the spatial spread of COVID-19 has the characteristics of privacy and uncertainty. Fifth, from the point of view of the spreading network of overseas epidemic space spread, the spread of the epidemic has international and irresistible characteristics. Sixth, the efficiency of urban space should be optimized in urban management, using modern communication network technology to improve the timeliness and flexibility of governance.

Key words: non-epidemic urban, epidemic, spatial spread, social network, COVID-19, Shenzhen City

摘要：

以深圳市卫生健康委员会发布的新冠肺炎确诊病例数据信息为依据，借助数据挖掘方法、空间分析方法和社会网络分析方法，对城市疫情空间扩散特征及治理对策进行了分析。研究表明：（1）从流行病学基本特征来看，疫情确诊病例人群结构复杂，来源地较广，延续时间较长，被传染病例发病滞后周期复杂。（2）从家庭内部及夫妻之间传播网络来看，疫情扩散具有强烈的空间聚集性特征。（3）从重点疫区和非疫区传播网络来看，疫情扩散具有明显的空间流动性特征。（4）从社交活动传播网络来看，疫情空间扩散具有私密性和不确定性特征。（5）从境外疫情空间蔓延的传播网络来看，疫情扩散具有国际性和不可抗拒性特征。（6）在城市管理中，应该优化城市空间效能，利用现代通信网络技术提高治理时效性和柔韧性。

关键词: 非疫区城市, 疫情, 空间扩散, 社会网络, 新冠肺炎, 深圳

Wenhui LI, Xiaoqing QIU. Research on spatial spread and control of urban epidemic by social network[J]. World Regional Studies, 2022, 31(3): 637-648.

李文辉, 邱晓晴. 基于社会网络的城市疫情空间扩散及治理研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2022, 31(3): 637-648.

Figures/Tables 6

References 34

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网络层级	衡量指标	指标说明
整体层面	节点数	衡量网络的规模
	边数	衡量网络的规模
	密度	衡量网络的紧凑程度
	平均路径长度	衡量网络中信息传递的效率
节点层面	节点度	衡量网络节点的基本特征
	度数中心性	衡量网络节点地位最直接的指标
	中间中心性
	接近中心性

网络层级	衡量指标	指标说明
整体层面	节点数	衡量网络的规模
	边数	衡量网络的规模
	密度	衡量网络的紧凑程度
	平均路径长度	衡量网络中信息传递的效率
节点层面	节点度	衡量网络节点的基本特征
	度数中心性	衡量网络节点地位最直接的指标
	中间中心性
	接近中心性

序号	节点度		度数中心性		中间中心性		接近中心性
序号	病例	结果值	病例	结果值	病例	结果值	病例	结果值
1	病例133	5	病例133	2.146	病例133	0.078	病例129	0.223
2	病例179	5	病例179	2.146	病例255	0.063	病例133	0.223
3	病例203	5	病例203	2.146	病例98	0.022	病例134	0.223
4	病例204	5	病例204	2.146	病例324	0.022	病例179	0.223
5	病例205	5	病例205	2.146	病例368	0.022	病例203	0.223
6	病例245	5	病例245	2.146	病例408	0.018	病例204	0.223
7	病例341	5	病例341	2.146	病例97	0.015	病例205	0.223
8	病例1	4	病例1	1.717	病例327	0.015	病例216	0.223
9	病例2	4	病例2	1.717	病例99	0.011	病例255	0.223
10	病例3	4	病例3	1.717	病例106	0.011	病例261	0.223
11	病例4	4	病例4	1.717	病例87	0.007	病例264	0.223
12	病例5	4	病例5	1.717	病例188	0.007	病例267	0.223
13	病例87	4	病例87	1.717	病例220	0.007	病例398	0.223
14	病例98	4	病例98	1.717	病例245	0.007	病例409	0.223
15	病例255	4	病例255	1.717	病例253	0.007	病例87	0.222
16	病例345	4	病例345	1.717	病例341	0.007	病例97	0.222
17	病例409	4	病例409	1.717	病例345	0.007	病例98	0.222
18	病例20	3	病例20	1.288	病例367	0.007	病例120	0.222
19	病例47	3	病例47	1.288	病例415	0.007	病例121	0.222
20	病例67及其他33例病例	3	病例67及其他33例病例	1.288	病例401	0.006	病例123及其他18例病例	0.222

序号	节点度		度数中心性		中间中心性		接近中心性
序号	病例	结果值	病例	结果值	病例	结果值	病例	结果值
1	病例133	5	病例133	2.146	病例133	0.078	病例129	0.223
2	病例179	5	病例179	2.146	病例255	0.063	病例133	0.223
3	病例203	5	病例203	2.146	病例98	0.022	病例134	0.223
4	病例204	5	病例204	2.146	病例324	0.022	病例179	0.223
5	病例205	5	病例205	2.146	病例368	0.022	病例203	0.223
6	病例245	5	病例245	2.146	病例408	0.018	病例204	0.223
7	病例341	5	病例341	2.146	病例97	0.015	病例205	0.223
8	病例1	4	病例1	1.717	病例327	0.015	病例216	0.223
9	病例2	4	病例2	1.717	病例99	0.011	病例255	0.223
10	病例3	4	病例3	1.717	病例106	0.011	病例261	0.223
11	病例4	4	病例4	1.717	病例87	0.007	病例264	0.223
12	病例5	4	病例5	1.717	病例188	0.007	病例267	0.223
13	病例87	4	病例87	1.717	病例220	0.007	病例398	0.223
14	病例98	4	病例98	1.717	病例245	0.007	病例409	0.223
15	病例255	4	病例255	1.717	病例253	0.007	病例87	0.222
16	病例345	4	病例345	1.717	病例341	0.007	病例97	0.222
17	病例409	4	病例409	1.717	病例345	0.007	病例98	0.222
18	病例20	3	病例20	1.288	病例367	0.007	病例120	0.222
19	病例47	3	病例47	1.288	病例415	0.007	病例121	0.222
20	病例67及其他33例病例	3	病例67及其他33例病例	1.288	病例401	0.006	病例123及其他18例病例	0.222

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