Based on multi-source remote sensing data, this study constructs a land cover change chain-spectrum evolution model to address the disconnection between time series analysis and spatial mapping in land cover change studies. It discusses the dynamic changes of land cover and its driving mechanism in Oman, thereby revealing the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of land cover in countries along the Belt and Road Initiative and providing a decision-making basis for regional cooperation. The results indicate that: ① Oman's land cover is dominated by deserts, while cropland, impervious surfaces, and shrublands occupy a relatively small proportion. Between 1995 and 2020, cropland, impervious surfaces, and shrublands expanded by 2.18, 3.43, and 7.8 times, respectively, reflecting a pattern of ecological restoration, oasis expansion, and impervious surface growth. ② The northern Hajar Mountains and the southern Dhofar Plateau are identified as land cover change hotspots, with significant temporal differences in land cover transitions. Cropland expansion was concentrated in 2005-2015, impervious surface expansion primarily occurred in 2000-2015, and shrubland growth was notable during 1995-2000 and 2015-2020. ③ Land cover transitions mainly occurred among sand, shrubland, cropland, and impervious surfaces, forming three major types of transfer chains: unidirectional, reciprocal, and stochastic, with unidirectional chains being dominant. The most significant transitions include sand to shrubland (7A4 and 7E4), sand to cropland (7E1), and sand to impervious surfaces (7D6), primarily occurring in the southern Salalah port and northern coastal radiation zones. ④ Land cover change in Oman presents a pattern in which two processes—"population agglomeration-economic growth-urban expansion" and "ecological governance-vegetation restoration"-advance in parallel and co-evolve internally. Human activity factors, including population, economy, and urbanization, are the dominant drivers of pattern evolution, while natural factors such as topography and climate provide the fundamental constraints. The trend of land degradation has been effectively mitigated. In the future, continuous efforts in desertification control should be made to balance urbanization and ecological restoration, thereby achieving the sustainable management of land resources.
