Abstract:

In the context of climate change, economic globalization and rapid urbanization, the multi-hazard risk has become a major threat to human society. Risk assessment is the foundation of risk prevention. Based on an in-depth examination of literature, this paper summarizes the theories and methodologies for assessing multi-hazard risk in the past two decades. The comprehensive risk assessment has two significant theory foundations: the conceptual models which indicate the combination way of multi-hazards and the risk frameworks which describe the risk elements and their relationships as well as developing the assessment models. The key to multi-hazard risk assessment is the integration of single hazard risk, and the method for integration can be classified to two categories: integration of risk values and integration of hazard processes. It deserves closer attention to investigate both the complex relationship between various disasters and risk elements as well as the complex impact of environmental changes on disaster risk. The scenario-based modeling and risk assessing method may be a better choice for meeting the demands of the current era. It is feasible to take the single hazard risk analysis as a starting point, the interrelationships between various hazards as traction, and the scenario analysis method as a propellant to implement multi-hazards risk assessment.

Key words: multi-hazard, comprehensive risk assessment, risk framework, scenario analysis

摘要：

在气候变化、经济全球化和快速城市化等多重背景下，多灾种综合风险已成为人类社会必须面对的挑战。多灾种综合风险评估是实施风险防范的基础。以成熟的单灾种风险研究为切入点，探讨多灾种综合风险评估的理论基础和方法类型。其理论基础之一是多灾种的概念模型，用于刻画多灾种的组合方式；理论基础之二是风险系统框架，用于描述风险系统的组成要素及其关系。多灾种风险评估的关键是实现对单灾种风险的综合，这种综合方法可分为累加式综合和过程式综合。未来既要密切关注灾害风险多要素的相互关系，更要高度重视环境变化对灾害过程和风险结果的影响。在深刻理解现有风险系统框架的基础上，以单灾种风险剖析为基础，以灾种间的关联性和组合特征为牵引，以情景分析思想为助力，有助于实现多灾种综合风险评估。

关键词: 多灾种风险, 综合风险评估, 风险系统框架, 情景分析