Spatio-temporal patterns of the land carrying capacity in the Belt and Road region based on nutritional requirement

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2023.12.2021906

Abstract

Abstract:

Countries along the Belt and Road (B&R) are the major population agglomeration areas and food production areas in the world. It is of great significance to study land resource carrying capacity from the perspectives of energy, protein and fat nutrition equivalence for promoting the improvement of regional dietary nutrition. Based on nutrient transformation model and land resources carrying capacity model, the spatial-temporal pattern of land resources carrying capacity of countries along the B&R from 1995 to 2019 was studied from the whole region and national scale. The results showed that, during the study period: (1) The growth rate of fruits, vegetables and egg milk food in B&R is more than or close to one time, and the growth rate of all three kinds of nutrients supply quantity is more than 50%, but there is still a certain gap between the supply ratio of animal food in protein and that in developed countries. (2) The carrying capacity of land resources has increased to the level of 5~6 billion people in B&R. The carrying capacity of 80% of countries was increasing, mainly located in Southeast Asia and South Asia. The carrying capacity of land resources of some countries in Central and Eastern Europe has declined. (3) Land resource carrying capacity pressure in B&R have turned into surplus overall, with about 60% countries slowing down, 50% countries overloaded with population, and over 50% countries lack of energy and protein.

Key words: food supply, nutrition equivalent unit, land resource carrying capacity, spatial - temporal pattern, countries along the Belt and Road

摘要：

“一带一路”沿线国家是全球主要的人口集聚区和食物生产区，从热量、蛋白质和脂肪营养当量视角开展土地资源承载力研究，可为沿线地区改善食物供给状况提供参考。基于营养素转换模型和土地资源承载力模型，从全域到国别研究了沿线国家土地资源承载力的时空格局。结果表明：1995—2019年期间，（1）沿线国家蔬果和蛋奶类食物增幅超过或接近1倍，3种营养素供给量增幅均超过50%，但动物性食物蛋白质供给比例与发达国家仍有一定差距；（2）土地资源承载力增至50亿~60亿人区间水平，约80%国家土地资源承载力在提高，主要集中于东南亚、南亚地区，而中东欧部分国家可载人口有所下降；（3）沿线国家土地资源整体上转入盈余状态，约60%国家土地资源承载指数下降，50%国家人口超载，超过50%的国家热量和蛋白质供应不足。

关键词: 食物供给, 营养当量, 土地资源承载力, 时空格局, “一带一路”沿线国家

Chao ZHANG, Yanzhao YANG, Chiwei XIAO, Ying LIU, Xinzhe SONG. Spatio-temporal patterns of the land carrying capacity in the Belt and Road region based on nutritional requirement[J]. World Regional Studies, 2023, 32(12): 54-66.

张超, 杨艳昭, 肖池伟, 刘莹, 宋欣哲. “一带一路”沿线国家土地资源承载力的时空格局[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(12): 54-66.

Figures/Tables 11

References 44

1	RASK K J, RASK N. Economic development and food production–consumption balance: A growing global challenge. Food Policy, 2011, 36(2): 186-196.
2	封志明, 杨艳昭, 闫慧敏, 等. 百年来的资源环境承载力研究: 从理论到实践. 资源科学, 2017, 39(3): 379-395.
	FENG Z, YANG Y, YAN H, et al. A review of resources and environment carrying capacity research since the 20th Century: from theory to practice. Resources Science, 2017, 39(3): 379-395.
3	封志明. 土地承载力研究的过去、现在与未来. 中国土地科学, 1994, 8(3): 1-9.
	FENG Z. Research history, present situation and future prospects of land carrying capacity. China Land Science, 1994, 8(3): 1-9.
4	封志明, 李鹏. 承载力概念的源起与发展:基于资源环境视角的讨论. 自然资源学报, 2018, 33(9): 1475-1489.
	FENG Z, LI P. The genesis and evolution of the concept of carrying capacity: a view of natural resources and environment. Journal of Natural Resources, 2018, 33(9): 1475-1489.
5	白东北, 王建民, 杨亚琴. 基于需求与供给理论的甘肃省人口土地承载力研究. 环境科学与管理, 2015, 40(3): 153-157.
	BAI D, WANG J, YANG Y. Research on population and land carrying capacity of Gansu province: based supply and demand theory. Environmental Science and Management, 2015, 40(3): 153-157.
6	党安荣,阎守邕,吴宏歧,等.基于GIS的中国土地生产潜力研究.生态学报,2000,20(6): 910-915.
	DANG A, YAN S, WU H, et al.A GIS based study on the potential land productivity of China.Acta Ecologica Sinica,2000,20(6): 910-915.
7	何文举, 罗畅, 李国峰. 湖南省新型城镇化的土地承载力与生态安全分析——基于生态足迹模型. 湖南商学院学报, 2016, 23(1): 18-24.
	HE W, LUO C, LI G. Analysis of land ecological security and bearing capacity in new type urbanization——Based on ecological footprint model. Journal of Hunan University of Commerce, 2016, 23(1): 18-24.
8	于广华, 孙才志. 环渤海沿海地区土地承载力时空分异特征. 生态学报, 2015, 35(14): 4860-4870.
	YU G, SUN C. Land carrying capacity spatiotemporal differentiation in the Bohai Sea coastal areas. Acta Ecological Sinica, 2015, 35(14): 4860-4870.
9	全江涛, 杨永芳, 周嘉昕. 河南省土地资源承载力时空演变分析与预测. 水土保持研究, 2020, 27(2): 315-322.
	QUAN J, YANG Y, ZHOU J. Analysis and Prediction of spatial and temporal evolution of land Resource Carrying Capacity in Henan Province. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2020, 27(2): 315-322.
10	D'ODORICO P, CARR J A, LAIO F, et al. Feeding humanity through global food trade. Earth's Future, 2014, 2(9): 458-469.
11	王玮, 闫慧敏, 杨艳昭, 等. 基于膳食营养需求的西藏县域土地资源承载力评价. 自然资源学报, 2019, 34(5): 921-933.
	WANG W, YAN H, YANG Y, et al. Evaluation of land resources carrying capacity of Tibetan counties based on dietary nutritional demand, Journal of Natural Resources, 2019, 34(5): 921-933.
12	封志明, 杨艳昭, 张晶. 中国基于人粮关系的土地资源承载力研究: 从分县到全国. 自然资源学报, 2008, 23(5): 865-875.
	FENG Z, YANG Y, ZHANG J. The land carrying capacity of China based on man- grain relationship. Journal of Natural Resources, 2008, 23(5): 865-875.
13	王情, 岳天祥, 卢毅敏, 等. 中国食物供给能力分析. 地理学报, 2010, 65(10): 1229-1240.
	WANG Q, YUE T, LU Y, et al. An analysis of the capacity of China's food provision. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010, 65(10): 1229-1240.
14	郝庆, 封志明, 杨艳昭, 等. 西藏土地资源承载力的现实与未来——基于膳食营养当量分析. 自然资源学报, 2019, 34(5): 911-920.
	HAO Q, FENG Z, YANG Y, et al. Evaluation on land carrying capacity of Tibet based on dietary nutrients: Present and prospects. Journal of Natural Resources, 2019, 34(5): 911-920.
15	唐华俊, 李哲敏. 基于中国居民平衡膳食模式的人均粮食需求量研究. 中国农业科学, 2012, 45(11): 2315-2327.
	TANG H, LI Z. Study on per capita grain demand based on Chinese reasonable dietary pattern. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2012, 45(11): 2315-2327.
16	张超, 杨艳昭, 封志明, 等. 基于人粮关系的"一带一路"沿线国家土地资源承载力时空格局研究. 自然资源学报, 2022, 37 (3): 616-626.
	ZHANG C, YANG Y, FENG Z, et al. Spatio-temporal patterns of the land carrying capacity in the Belt and Road region based on human-cereals relationship. Journal of Natural Resources, 2022, 37(3): 616-626.
17	ZHENG X, XU Z. Analysis of water resources carrying capacity of the "belt and road" initiative countries based on virtual water theory. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2019, 10(6): 574.
18	ZHEN L, XU Z, ZHAO Y, et al. Ecological carrying capacity and green development in the "Belt and Road" initiative region. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2019, 10(6): 569.
19	李富佳, 董锁成, 原琳娜, 等. "一带一路"农业战略格局及对策. 中国科学院院刊, 2016, 31(6): 678-688.
	LI F, DONG S, YUAN L, et al. Study on agriculture patterns and strategy of the Belt and Road. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2016, 31(6): 678-688.
20	贾琨, 杨艳昭, 封志明. "一带一路"沿线国家粮食生产的时空格局分析. 自然资源学报, 2019, 34(6): 1135-1145.
	JIA K, YANG Y, FENG Z. An evaluation of the Belt and Road cereals production from a view of spatial-temporal patterns. Journal of Natural Resources, 2019, 34(6): 1135-1145.
21	张超, 杨艳昭, 封志明, 等. "一带一路"沿线国家粮食消费时空格局. 自然资源学报, 2021, 36(6): 1398-1412.
	ZHANG C, YANG Y, FENG Z, et al. Spatio-temporal pattern of cereals consumption in countries along the Belt and Road. Journal of Natural Resources, 2021, 36(6): 1398-1412.
22	王情, 岳天祥, 范泽孟, 等. 江西省食物供给时空格局. 地理科学进展, 2011,30(4): 479-484.
	WANG Q, YUE T, FAN Z, et al. Spatial-temporal patterns of food provision in Jiangxi province, Progress in Geography, 2011, 30(4): 479-484.
23	荣爽, 杨月欣. 世界各国膳食指南食物推荐摄入量的比较. 营养学报, 2018, 40(3): 209-214.
	RONG S, YANG Y. Comparison of recommended food intakes of dietary guidelines in countries around the world. Acta Nutrimenta Sinica, 2018, 40(3): 209-214.
24	PROSEKOV A Y, IVANOVA S A. Food security: The challenge of the present. Geoforum, 2018, 91: 73-77.
25	HUI C. Carrying capacity of the environment. International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences, 2015, 3: 155-160.
26	ZHANG C, YANG Y, FENG Z, et al. Food Security Risks of Countries along the Belt and Road in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic. Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, 2021, 11(2): 45.
27	HEADEY D, FAN S. Anatomy of a crisis: the causes and consequences of surging food prices. Agricultural Economics, 2008, 39(s1): 375-391.
28	徐海亮,赵文武.1970年-2009年国际主要粮食价格承受力分析.世界地理研究,2014,23(2):26-34.
	XU H, ZHAO W. The price affordability analysis of international main grain in 1970-2009.World Regional Studies,2014,23(2): 26-34.
29	ZHANG C, YANG Y, FENG Z, et al. Risk of Global External Cereals Supply under the Background of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Based on the Perspective of Trade Network. Foods, 2021, 10(6): 1168.
30	FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, et al. The state of food security and nutrition in the world 2021. Rome, 2021.
31	WHO. Protein and Amino Acid Requirements in Human Nutrition. World Health Organization technical report series, Geneva, 2002.
32	李哲敏. 中国城乡居民食物消费及营养发展研究. 中国农业科学院, 2007.
	LI Z. Study on meat supply and demand with the goal of nutrition in China. Chinese academy of agricultural sciences, 2007
33	FAO. Global food losses and food waste-Extent, causes and prevention. Rome. 2011.
34	COWEY C B. Protein and energy requirements: Nutrition and Food Science, 1980.
35	WHO. Energy and protein requirements. World Health Organization technical report series, Geneva, 1985.
36	FAO. Human energy requirements: Report of a Joint FAO/WHO/UNU Expert Consultation. Rome, 2001.
37	THE L. Addressing the vulnerability of the global food system. Lancet, 2017, 390(10090): 95.
38	HIÇ C, PRADHAN P, RYBSKI D, et al. Food surplus and its climate burdens. Environmental Science & Technology, 2016, 50(8): 4269-4277.
39	中国中长期食物发展战略研究组. 中国中长期食物发展战略研究. 北京: 农业出版社, 1991.
	Research group on China's medium and long-term food development strategy. Research on China's Medium and Long-Term Food Development Strategy. Beijing: Agricultural Press, 1991.
40	封志明, 游珍, 杨艳昭, 等. 基于三维四面体模型的西藏资源环境承载力综合评价. 地理学报, 2021, 76(3): 645-662.
	FENG Z, YOU Z, YANG Y, et al. Comprehensive evaluation of resource and environment carrying capacity of Tibet based on a three-dimensional tetrahedron model. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(3): 645-662.
41	何昌垂. 粮食安全:世纪挑战与应对. 北京: 社会科学文献出版社, 2013.
	HE C. Food Security: Century Challenges and Responses. Beijing: Social Sciences Academic Press, 2013
42	杨艳昭, 封志明, 孙通, 等. "一带一路"沿线国家水资源禀赋及开发利用分析. 自然资源学报, 2019, 34(6): 1146-1156.
	YANG Y, FENG Z, SUN T, et al. Water resources endowment and exploitation and utilization of countries along the Belt and Road. Journal of Natural Resources, 2019, 34(6): 1146-1156.
43	王佩玉, 魏冶, 高鑫. "一带一路"商品贸易网络的社团结构及其经济收敛效应研究. 世界地理研究, 2021, 30(01): 25-36.
	WANG P, WEI Y, GAO X. The community structure and its economic convergence effect of merchandise trade network in the "Belt and Road Initiative" area. World Regional Studies, 2021, 30(1): 25-36.
44	BAJAN B, SOWA K. Food consumption models around the world in the context of globalization. Intercathedra. 2019, 3(40): 219-226

区域	国家名称	数量
中亚	哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、土库曼斯坦	5
中蒙俄	中国、蒙古国、俄罗斯	3
东南亚	越南、老挝、柬埔寨、泰国、马来西亚、新加坡、印度尼西亚、文莱、菲律宾、缅甸、东帝汶	11
南亚	印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉国、阿富汗、尼泊尔、不丹、斯里兰卡、马尔代夫	8
中东欧	波兰、捷克、斯洛伐克、匈牙利、斯洛文尼亚、克罗地亚、罗马尼亚、保加利亚、塞尔维亚、黑山、北马其顿、波黑、阿尔巴尼亚、爱沙尼亚、立陶宛、拉脱维亚、乌克兰、白俄罗斯、摩尔多瓦	19
西亚及中东	土耳其、伊朗、叙利亚、伊拉克、阿联酋、沙特阿拉伯、卡塔尔、巴林、科威特、黎巴嫩、阿曼、也门、约旦、以色列、巴勒斯坦、亚美尼亚、格鲁吉亚、阿塞拜疆、埃及	19

区域	国家名称	数量
中亚	哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、土库曼斯坦	5
中蒙俄	中国、蒙古国、俄罗斯	3
东南亚	越南、老挝、柬埔寨、泰国、马来西亚、新加坡、印度尼西亚、文莱、菲律宾、缅甸、东帝汶	11
南亚	印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉国、阿富汗、尼泊尔、不丹、斯里兰卡、马尔代夫	8
中东欧	波兰、捷克、斯洛伐克、匈牙利、斯洛文尼亚、克罗地亚、罗马尼亚、保加利亚、塞尔维亚、黑山、北马其顿、波黑、阿尔巴尼亚、爱沙尼亚、立陶宛、拉脱维亚、乌克兰、白俄罗斯、摩尔多瓦	19
西亚及中东	土耳其、伊朗、叙利亚、伊拉克、阿联酋、沙特阿拉伯、卡塔尔、巴林、科威特、黎巴嫩、阿曼、也门、约旦、以色列、巴勒斯坦、亚美尼亚、格鲁吉亚、阿塞拜疆、埃及	19

类型	限制度/承载状态	NUTCCI	LCCI
土地盈余	富富有余	≤0.5	＞1.20
土地盈余	盈余	0.5~0.875	1.05~1.20
人地平衡	平衡有余	0.875~1.0	1.00~1.05
人地平衡	临界超载	1.0~1.125	0.95~1.00
人口超载	超载	1.125~1.5	0.82~0.95
人口超载	严重超载	＞1.5	＜0.82

类型	限制度/承载状态	NUTCCI	LCCI
土地盈余	富富有余	≤0.5	＞1.20
土地盈余	盈余	0.5~0.875	1.05~1.20
人地平衡	平衡有余	0.875~1.0	1.00~1.05
人地平衡	临界超载	1.0~1.125	0.95~1.00
人口超载	超载	1.125~1.5	0.82~0.95
人口超载	严重超载	＞1.5	＜0.82

1995年	2019年	国家
热量超载	营养素充足	吉尔吉斯斯坦、拉脱维亚、中国
热量-脂肪超载		缅甸
营养素超载		老挝、越南
脂肪超载		克罗地亚
热量-蛋白质超载	热量超载	菲律宾、马来西亚
热量-脂肪超载		阿尔巴尼亚
营养素超载		塔吉克斯坦
营养素超载	脂肪超载	柬埔寨、尼泊尔
营养素超载	热量-脂肪超载	斯洛文尼亚、亚美尼亚、印度
营养素充足	热量-脂肪超载	叙利亚、阿塞拜疆、波黑
热量-蛋白质超载	营养素超载	黑山
营养素充足	营养素超载	不丹
/	/	除上述国家外的研究对象