Abstract:

Based on the price difference method, the scale of residential natural gas subsidies in China from 2009 to 2019 was estimated. The Dagum Gini coefficient and LMDI decomposition method were used to explore the spatial differences of subsidies and their inherent evolutionary mechanism. The results show that: (1) Residential natural gas subsidies showed a two-stage feature of "first increase and then decrease", subsidies peaked in 2012. The proportion of subsidies in the eastern, central and northeast regions showed an increasing trend, while that in the western region decreased. The scale of subsidies in all provinces increased to varying degrees, and the provinces with the highest average subsidies were those with large natural gas production and consumption, and provinces along the west-east gas transmission route and coastal economically developed areas. (2) Residential natural gas subsidies showed a spatial distribution feature of "high in the west and low in the east", and the overall regional gap narrowed, and super-variable density gradually became the main source of subsidy differences. In order of magnitude, the differences between regions are west-northeast, East-West, middle-west, east-northeast, middle-northeast, and East-middle. From the perspective of intra-regional differences, the western region had the largest difference, and the northeast region had the smallest difference, the eastern and central regions of the subsidy difference is increasing, the degree of subsidy imbalance is increasing, and the western and northeast regions of the subsidy tend to be balanced. (3) On the whole, the population effect and consumption effect have positive contributions to residential gas subsidies and their effects have been increasing,. The price effect, technology effect and economic effect showed negative contributions to subsidies. There are significant spatial differences in the influencing factors of residents' natural gas subsidies in eastern, central, western and northeast regions, and they change before and after the natural gas price reform.

Key words: residential natural gas subsidies, price difference method, spatial difference, factor decomposition

摘要：

基于价差法测算了2009—2019年中国居民天然气补贴规模，运用Dagum基尼系数和LMDI分解法探究补贴的空间差异及其内在演化机理。结果表明：①居民天然气补贴规模总体呈现“先增加后波动减少”两阶段特征，2012年达到补贴峰值。东部、中部和东北地区补贴占全国比重呈增加趋势，西部所占比重下降，所有省份补贴规模均呈现不同程度的增加趋势，补贴均值排名靠前的省份均为天然气生产和消费大省、西气东输沿线省份和沿海经济发达地区。②居民天然气补贴表现出“西高东低”的空间分布特征，总体区域差距有所缩小，超变密度逐渐成为影响补贴差异的主要来源。区域间差异按照大小排序依次是西-东北、东-西、中-西、东-东北、中-东北、东-中。从区域内差异看，西部地区差异最大，东北地区最小，东部和中部区域内补贴差异不断增加，补贴不均衡程度提高，西部和东北区域内补贴趋于均衡。③从整体上看，人口效应、消费效应对居民天然气补贴呈现正向贡献且作用不断增强，而价格效应、技术效应和经济效应表现出对补贴的负向贡献。东部、中部、西部和东北地区居民天然气补贴影响因素存在显著的空间分异，且在天然气价格改革前后发生变化。

关键词: 居民天然气补贴, 价差法, 空间差异, 因素分解