Abstract:

A deep understanding of the relationship between economic development and tourism scale is conducive to promoting regional coordination and achieving sustainable development of the economy and tourism. Based on the tourism dependence hypothesis as the theoretical foundation, this paper starts from the perspective of allometric growth relationship, constructs an allometric growth relationship model of economic-tourism scale in the southwest China from 2010 to 2022, explores the temporal and spatial changes process of its allometric growth, and uses the optimal parameter geodetector to detect the driving factors. The results show: ① The economic development and tourism scale in the southwest region show an unbalanced distribution pattern. The regional economic development is unbalanced, but the overall level is higher than the tourism scale. The tourism scale shows a spatial pattern of "high in the southeast - low in the northwest". ② On the longitudinal allometric relationship, in the southwest region, the economic-tourism scale shows a change process from strong economic expansion type to basic economic-tourism coordination type to weak regional economic expansion type; on the horizontal allometric grades, it is mainly characterized by the transformation from positive allometric growth to negative allometric growth, and the spatial evolution differences of the horizontal allometric growth grades are significant, indicating that the tourism development speed in the study area gradually slows down compared to the economic growth speed. ③ The allometric relationship between the economy and tourism scale in the southwest region is the result of the interaction of multiple factors such as tourism consumption level, commercial activity atmosphere, tourism facility supply degree, cultural supply level, degree of opening up, economic density and industrialization level. Examining the development of the economy and tourism in the southwest region from the allometric perspective helps to deeply explore its internal logic and development differences.

Key words: regional economy, tourism scale, allometric growth, optimal parameter geodetector

摘要：

深刻把握经济发展与旅游规模的关系有利于促进区域协调，实现经济与旅游业的可持续发展。本文以旅游依赖性假说为理论基础，从异速增长关系视角出发，构建2010—2022年西南地区经济-旅游规模异速增长关系模型，探究其异速增长的时空变化过程，并使用最优参数地理探测器探测其驱动因子。结果表明：①西南地区经济发展与旅游规模均呈现不均衡的分布格局，区域经济发展不平衡，但经济整体发展水平高于旅游规模水平，旅游规模呈“东南高-西北低”的空间格局。②在纵向异速关系上，西南地区经济-旅游规模呈现经济扩张强型-经济旅游基本协调型-区域经济扩张弱型的变化过程；横向异速等级以正异速增长转化为负异速增长为主，横向异速增长等级空间演变差异显著，表明研究区旅游发展速度逐步慢于经济增长速度。③西南地区经济与旅游规模异速关系是旅游消费水平、商业活动氛围、旅游设施供给度、文化供给水平、对外开放程度、经济密度和工业化水平等多重因素交互作用的结果。透过异速视角审视西南地区的经济与旅游业发展，有助于深入揭示其内在逻辑和发展差异。

关键词: 区域经济, 旅游规模, 异速增长, 最优参数地理探测器