主管单位：中国科学技术协会
主办单位：中国地理学会
承办单位：华东师范大学
世界地理研究

世界地理研究 ›› 2019, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (6): 42-49.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2019.06.2018360

• 世界政治与经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

地缘政治视角下的中亚“颜色革命”可能性分析

李希雅1,2(), 王礼茂3,4()   

  1. 1.华东师范大学全球创新与发展研究院，上海 200062
    2.华东师范大学城市与区域科学学院，上海 200241
    3.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所，北京 100101
    4.中国科学院大学资源与环境学院，北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2018-08-02 修回日期:2018-10-03 出版日期:2019-12-15 发布日期:2022-01-22
  • 通讯作者: 王礼茂
  • 作者简介:李希雅（1997-），女，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为世界地理与地缘政治，E-mail：lixiya0902@qq.com。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41971163);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA20010202);科技部重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0602800)

An analysis of the susceptibility of color revolution in Central Asia from a geopolitical perspective

Xiya LI1,2(), Limao WANG3,4()   

  1. 1.Institute for Innovation and Strategic Studies, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
    2.School of Urban and Regional Science, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
    3.Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    4.College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2018-08-02 Revised:2018-10-03 Online:2019-12-15 Published:2022-01-22
  • Contact: Limao WANG

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摘要：

基于地缘政治视角，分析21世纪初发生在原苏联地区“颜色革命”的诱发因素，认为美国根据其地缘战略格局对“颜色革命”发生地存在一定程度的主观选择性，国家内部经济、政治、社会等层面的矛盾也同样作为发生背景。在中亚地缘格局动态分析的基础上，结合中亚五国形势，从时间和空间双重维度对中亚地区未来发生“颜色革命”的可能性进行识别与评判，得出：整体来看，中亚近期内爆发“颜色革命”可能性较小，但从长远来看不能掉以轻心；土国、乌国未来稳定可期，塔国、吉国、哈国需谨防“颜色革命”卷土重来。

关键词: “颜色革命”, 中亚地区, 地缘政治, 美国, 一带一路

Abstract:

Based on the geopolitical perspective, this thesis analyzes the factors of the "color revolution" that occurred in the former Soviet Union at the beginning of this century, and deems that the United States had a certain degree of subjective selectivity for the "color revolution" in accordance with its geostrategic pattern. Domestic economic, political and social contradictions are also the background of the "color revolution". Based on the dynamic analysis of the geopolitical pattern of Central Asia and combined with the situation of the five Central Asian countries, the dual dimensions of time and space are used to evaluate the possibility of the future "color revolution" in Central Asia. We draw two conclusions from the analysis:(1) The likelihood of a "color revolution" in Central Asia is relatively low in the short term, but there is possibility in the long run.(2)Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are likely to be stable in the future. Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan should be alert to the outbreak of the "color revolution".

Key words: color revolution, Central Asia, geopolitical perspective, America, "One Road & One Belt" Initiative