文化的力量：贸易伙伴文化多样性会影响中国出口贸易增长吗？

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2021.04.2020872

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

文化多样性是国家普遍存在的重要属性，且这一属性有可能会对国家的供需市场产生影响并进一步作用于进出口贸易。采用1998—2017年中国对156个贸易伙伴的货物出口贸易与文化多样性数据，探究贸易伙伴内生文化多样性对中国出口贸易的影响及其作用机制。研究发现：①贸易伙伴文化多样性对中国的出口贸易具有明显的抑制作用；②在采用工具变量法、变换关键解释变量、不同时间窗口的分样本检验等方法进行一系列稳健性测试后，基准回归结论依然存在；③在机制检验中发现，贸易伙伴文化多样性对中国出口贸易的影响通过贸易伙伴政治制度效率的中介作用进行响应，具体而言，贸易伙伴宗教信仰多样性、民族多样性以及语言多样性通过政治制度效率对中国出口贸易发挥的中介效应分别占总效应的32.14%、11.03%以及19.11%。据此，中国在开展国际经济合作中要重视文化的力量，加快推进与各国的文明交流互鉴，同时，也要加强贸易双边的制度合作，并强化国际经济合作的风险意识。

关键词: 文化多样性, 贸易伙伴, 出口贸易, 政治制度效率, 中国出口

Abstract:

Cultural diversity is a common and important attribute of a country, which may have an impact on the supply and demand market of the country and further affect the import and export trade. Using the data of goods export trade and cultural diversity of 156 trading partners in 1998-2017,the study explored impact of cultural diversity of trading partners on China's export trade.Results show: cultural diversity of trade partners has an obvious inhibitory effect on China's export trade. After a series of robustness tests, this conclusion still exists. In addition, in the mechanism test, it is found that influence of cultural diversity of trading partners on China's export trade is responded by the mediating role of political system efficiency of trading partners. Specifically, the mediating effects of religious belief diversity, ethnic diversity and language diversity of trading partners on China's export trade through political system efficiency account for 32.14%,11.03% and19.11% of the total effect. Therefore, China should attach importance to the power of culture, and speed up civilization exchanges and mutual learning with other countries. In addition, China should strengthen bilateral institutional cooperation in trade, and strengthen the risk awareness of international economic cooperation.

Key words: cultural diversity, trading partners, export trade, efficiency of political system, China export trade

韦永贵. 文化的力量：贸易伙伴文化多样性会影响中国出口贸易增长吗？[J]. 世界地理研究, 2021, 30(4): 757-768.

Yonggui WEI. The power of culture: Does cultural diversity of trading partners affect the growth of China's export trade?[J]. World Regional Studies, 2021, 30(4): 757-768.

图/表 7

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变量名	变量含义	原始数据来源
LnExport	中国对贸易伙伴的年度出口贸易额的自然对数	UNComtrade数据库
rel_frac	宗教信仰多样性，用以衡量贸易伙伴的宗教多样化程度	AREA宗教数据库
lang_ELE	语言多样性，用以衡量贸易伙伴的语言分化程度	World Linguistic Map数据库
eth_frac	民族多样性，用以衡量贸易伙伴的族群多样化程度	CIA Factbook数据库
GDP_i	中国经济生产总值，衡量中国的经济实力	World Bank数据库
GDP_j	贸易伙伴经济生产总值，衡量贸易伙伴的市场规模	World Bank数据库
pgdp	贸易伙伴人均GDP，用以衡量贸易伙伴的消费能力	World Bank数据库
GDP_rate	贸易伙伴的GDP增长率，衡量贸易伙伴的市场潜力	World Bank数据库
population	贸易伙伴的总人口，衡量贸易伙伴的消费规模	World Bank数据库
tf	贸易自由度，衡量贸易伙伴的贸易开放程度	美国遗传基金会数据库
geo_dist	地理距离，以中国首都与贸易伙伴首都的球面距离衡量	CEPII数据库
border	中国与贸易伙伴是否存在共同边界，是取值1，否则为0	根据Google地图进行判别
colony	贸易伙伴是否与中国曾具有一致的殖民史，是取值1，否则为0	CEPII数据库
RTA	中国与贸易伙伴是否签订自由贸易协议，是取值1，否则为0	World Bank数据库

变量名	变量含义	原始数据来源
LnExport	中国对贸易伙伴的年度出口贸易额的自然对数	UNComtrade数据库
rel_frac	宗教信仰多样性，用以衡量贸易伙伴的宗教多样化程度	AREA宗教数据库
lang_ELE	语言多样性，用以衡量贸易伙伴的语言分化程度	World Linguistic Map数据库
eth_frac	民族多样性，用以衡量贸易伙伴的族群多样化程度	CIA Factbook数据库
GDP_i	中国经济生产总值，衡量中国的经济实力	World Bank数据库
GDP_j	贸易伙伴经济生产总值，衡量贸易伙伴的市场规模	World Bank数据库
pgdp	贸易伙伴人均GDP，用以衡量贸易伙伴的消费能力	World Bank数据库
GDP_rate	贸易伙伴的GDP增长率，衡量贸易伙伴的市场潜力	World Bank数据库
population	贸易伙伴的总人口，衡量贸易伙伴的消费规模	World Bank数据库
tf	贸易自由度，衡量贸易伙伴的贸易开放程度	美国遗传基金会数据库
geo_dist	地理距离，以中国首都与贸易伙伴首都的球面距离衡量	CEPII数据库
border	中国与贸易伙伴是否存在共同边界，是取值1，否则为0	根据Google地图进行判别
colony	贸易伙伴是否与中国曾具有一致的殖民史，是取值1，否则为0	CEPII数据库
RTA	中国与贸易伙伴是否签订自由贸易协议，是取值1，否则为0	World Bank数据库

变量名	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
LnExport	11.2107	2.3867	1.8885	17.5761
rel_frac	0.3224	0.2266	0.0010	0.7936
lang_ELE	0.2782	0.2613	0.0000	0.9670
eth_frac	0.4553	0.2666	0.0000	0.9586
LnGDP_i	28.8746	0.6952	27.6660	29.9496
LnGDP_j	24.4729	2.0801	19.2966	30.4820
Lnpgdp	8.4152	1.6018	4.7518	11.6259
GDP_rate	3.7001	5.5402	-62.0759	123.1396
Lnpopulation	16.0536	1.6209	11.1671	21.0153
tf	69.3690	15.5324	0.0000	95.0000
Lngeo_dist	8.9788	0.5449	6.8623	9.8677
border	0.0961	0.2948	0.0000	1.0000
colony	0.8203	0.3840	0.0000	1.0000
RTA	0.1731	0.3783	0.0000	1.0000

变量名	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
LnExport	11.2107	2.3867	1.8885	17.5761
rel_frac	0.3224	0.2266	0.0010	0.7936
lang_ELE	0.2782	0.2613	0.0000	0.9670
eth_frac	0.4553	0.2666	0.0000	0.9586
LnGDP_i	28.8746	0.6952	27.6660	29.9496
LnGDP_j	24.4729	2.0801	19.2966	30.4820
Lnpgdp	8.4152	1.6018	4.7518	11.6259
GDP_rate	3.7001	5.5402	-62.0759	123.1396
Lnpopulation	16.0536	1.6209	11.1671	21.0153
tf	69.3690	15.5324	0.0000	95.0000
Lngeo_dist	8.9788	0.5449	6.8623	9.8677
border	0.0961	0.2948	0.0000	1.0000
colony	0.8203	0.3840	0.0000	1.0000
RTA	0.1731	0.3783	0.0000	1.0000

IV:公元1500年遗传基因（Spolaore-Wacziarg）
变量名	(1)第一阶段	(2)第二阶段	(3)第一阶段	(4)第二阶段	(5)第一阶段	(6)第二阶段
Gendist_nei_1500	0.000^*** (0.000)		0.000^*** (0.000)		0.000^*** （0.000）
rel_frac		-6.112^*** (0.837)
eth_frac				-13.430^*** (4.01)
lang_ELE						-7.064^*** （1.346）
控制变量	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制	控制
Country&year	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
R²	0.2603	0.5240	0.3632	0.5868	0.1733	0.3767
Gragg-Donald Wald F	58.80		61.37		24.07
LM检验	26.312^***		18.227^***		31.613^***
Sargan	0.712		0.643		0.822
Durbin-Wu-Hausman	3.281^***		2.924^***		6.642^***
No. of Obs	2638	2638	2551	2551	2628	2638