基于CiteSpace的引力模型研究进展及其热点问题综述

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2023.01.2020708

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

使用WOS及CNKI收录的期刊论文，借助CiteSpace软件量化分析引力模型的国内外发展脉络及近期研究热点，进而对多边阻力与零值问题、距离变量选取及社会网络分析等方面的主流研究进行评述，并简述我国学者在国际贸易、国际投资及社会空间等方面应用引力模型存在的偏差。研究发现：（1）国内外引力模型研究主题较为集中，共同知识基础明确，以国际贸易、外商直接投资及人口流动为主形成一系列跨国经济研究；（2）近几年，应用引力模型进行国际研究的热点集中于气候问题、创新、全球价值链、空间整合等，而国内研究则在市场一体化、国际区域协作及中美贸易摩擦背景下，形成了以“一带一路”、中美贸易、长江经济带、粤港澳大湾区为重点的研究格局；（3）结合关键词共现、突现、趋势的研究以及传统的文献分析法，可知国内引力模型的研究以应用为主，明显滞后于国际研究，且缺乏多边阻力、零值问题、广义距离及引力值计算等方面的基础理论探索。

关键词: 引力模型, 共词分析, 突现分析, 经济地理, 研究进展, CiteSpace

Abstract:

Using journal articles from WOS and CNKI, the development of gravity models at home and abroad and recent research hotspots are quantified and analyzed with the help of "CiteSpace". The study then reviews the mainstream research on multilateral resistance and zero value problems, the selection of distance variables and social network analysis, and briefly discusses the biases in the application of gravity models in international trade, international investment, and social space in China. It is found that: (1) The research themes of gravity models at home and abroad are relatively concentrated, with a clear common knowledge base, and a series of cross-country economic studies formed mainly on international trade, foreign direct investment, and population movement. (2) In recent years, the hotspots of international research on the application of gravity models are focused on climate issues, innovation, global value chains, and spatial integration, while domestic research focuses on "One Belt, One Road", Sino-US trade, Yangtze River Economic Belt and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area in the context of domestic market integration, international regional collaboration, and Sino-US trade friction.(3) Combined with keyword co-occurrence, emergence, and temporal trends of keywords and the traditional literature analysis method, it can be seen that the research on domestic gravitational models is mainly applied and significantly lags behind international research, and lacks basic theoretical exploration on multilateral resistance, zero value problem, generalized distance, and gravitational value calculation.

Key words: gravity model, co-word analysis, keywords emergence analysis, economic geography, research progress, CiteSpace

张艺川, 胡萌, 李红. 基于CiteSpace的引力模型研究进展及其热点问题综述[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(1): 130-140.

Yichuan ZHANG, Meng HU, Hong LI. A review of the progress and hot issues of Gravity Model based on the CiteSpace: A comparative analysis of literature from the economic geography perspective[J]. World Regional Studies, 2023, 32(1): 130-140.

图/表 4

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作者	方法	特点	核心思想
Redding等^[14]，Baldwin等^[19]，Rose等^[22]	固定效应（Fixed Effects）	能得到成本项参数的一致估计	加入进出口商固定效应以代表多边阻力项
Anderson等^[15]	结构迭代最小二乘法（SILS, Structurally Iterated Least Squares）	可反映多边阻力项和成本之间的结构关系，但复杂且耗时	通过迭代确定交易成本的新参数同时通过压缩映射算法更新内向和外向多边阻力
Head等^[11]	双重贬损（Double-Demeaning of LHS&RHS）	对每个变量进行处理以消除包含在多边阻力中的单边影响，但对缺失数据极其敏感	在引力方程两边分别减去进出口商的平均值并加上总体的平均值，使所有多边阻力项消失
Baier等^[20]，Kareem等^[23]	GDP加权的最小二乘估计（BVW, Bonus Vetus OLS，GDP-weighted)	允许比较静态分析的同时产生接近非线性最小二乘的效果	通过泰勒级数展开和双边贸易成本对称的假设，建立一个多边和世界阻力外生进入的简化引力模型
Baier等^[20]，Kareem等^[23]	简单的最小二乘估计（BVU, Bonus Vetus OLS, simple averages）	允许比较静态分析的同时产生接近非线性最小二乘的效果	通过泰勒级数展开和双边贸易成本对称的假设，建立一个多边和世界阻力外生进入的简化引力模型
Combes等^[24]，Hallak^[25]，Romalis^[26]	比率方法（Tetrads）	比率方法可解决存在大量虚拟变量的情况，但标准国家选择困难	利用两国间阻力或助力的因素将多边阻力项抵消

作者	方法	特点	核心思想
Redding等^[14]，Baldwin等^[19]，Rose等^[22]	固定效应（Fixed Effects）	能得到成本项参数的一致估计	加入进出口商固定效应以代表多边阻力项
Anderson等^[15]	结构迭代最小二乘法（SILS, Structurally Iterated Least Squares）	可反映多边阻力项和成本之间的结构关系，但复杂且耗时	通过迭代确定交易成本的新参数同时通过压缩映射算法更新内向和外向多边阻力
Head等^[11]	双重贬损（Double-Demeaning of LHS&RHS）	对每个变量进行处理以消除包含在多边阻力中的单边影响，但对缺失数据极其敏感	在引力方程两边分别减去进出口商的平均值并加上总体的平均值，使所有多边阻力项消失
Baier等^[20]，Kareem等^[23]	GDP加权的最小二乘估计（BVW, Bonus Vetus OLS，GDP-weighted)	允许比较静态分析的同时产生接近非线性最小二乘的效果	通过泰勒级数展开和双边贸易成本对称的假设，建立一个多边和世界阻力外生进入的简化引力模型
Baier等^[20]，Kareem等^[23]	简单的最小二乘估计（BVU, Bonus Vetus OLS, simple averages）	允许比较静态分析的同时产生接近非线性最小二乘的效果	通过泰勒级数展开和双边贸易成本对称的假设，建立一个多边和世界阻力外生进入的简化引力模型
Combes等^[24]，Hallak^[25]，Romalis^[26]	比率方法（Tetrads）	比率方法可解决存在大量虚拟变量的情况，但标准国家选择困难	利用两国间阻力或助力的因素将多边阻力项抵消

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