中国与加勒比国家贸易格局演变及影响因素分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2023.09.2021514

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

运用贸易强度指数、HM指数和地理探测器分析了2008—2019年中国与加勒比国家的贸易格局演变及影响因素，研究发现：①中国与加勒比国家进出口贸易总额增长迅速，呈波动上升的趋势；②中国与加勒比国家贸易合作存在明显的空间差异，主要集中于墨西哥和哥伦比亚等大国；③中国与加勒比国家的贸易联系强度较低，但贸易关系正向紧密方向发展；④中国在加勒比国家主要进口矿产品等初级产品，出口机械设备、纺织服装等技术密集型和劳动密集型产品；⑤加勒比国家商品出口对中国市场的依赖程度显著高于中国商品出口对加勒比国家的依赖程度，呈现出非对称性结构；⑥经济发展、资源禀赋、基础设施条件和技术创新水平成为影响中国与加勒比国家贸易的重要因素，双因子交互探测解释力高于单因子探测，包括“非线性增强”和“双因子增强”两种类型，其中“双因子增强”占主导。

关键词: 贸易强度指数, HM指数, 地理探测器, 贸易格局, 加勒比国家

Abstract:

Using the trade intensity index, the HM index and the Geodetector to analyze the evolution and influencing factors of the trade pattern between China and the Caribbean countries from 2008 to 2019. The research finds:① The total import and export trade between China and the Caribbean countries has grown rapidly, showing a trend of volatility; ② There are significant spatial differences in trade cooperation between China and Caribbean countries, which are mainly concentrated in large countries such as Mexico and Colombia;③ The trade ties between China and Caribbean countries are relatively low, but the trade relations are developing in a closer direction; ④ China mainly imports primary products such as mineral products in the Caribbean countries, and exports technology-intensive and labor-intensive products such as machinery and equipment, textiles and clothing; ⑤ The dependence of Caribbean countries' commodity exports on the Chinese market is significantly higher than the dependence of China's commodity exports on Caribbean countries, showing an asymmetrical Structure; ⑥ Economy development, resources endowment, infrastructure conditions and technological innovation levels have become important factors affecting China and Caribbean countries trade. The explanatory power of dual-factor interactive detection is higher than single-factor detection, including two types of "non-linear enhancement" and "two-factor enhancement", and "Two-factor enhancement" dominates.

Key words: trade intensity index, HM index, geographic detector, trade pattern, Caribbean countries

牛雪利, 陈瑛, 巴士奇. 中国与加勒比国家贸易格局演变及影响因素分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(9): 28-39.

Xueli NIU, Ying CHEN, Shiqi BA. Analysis on the evolution and influencing factors of trade pattern between China and Caribbean countries[J]. World Regional Studies, 2023, 32(9): 28-39.

图/表 8

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类型	交互作用
q(X1∩X2)＜Min(q(X1),q(X2))	非线性减弱
Min(q(X1),q(X2))＜q(X1∩X2)＜Max(q(X1),q(X2))	单因子非线性减弱
q(X1∩X2)＞Max(q(X1),q(X2))	双因子增强
q(X1∩X2)＝q(X1)+ q(X2)	独立
q(X1∩X2)＞q(X1)+ q(X2)	非线性增强

类型	交互作用
q(X1∩X2)＜Min(q(X1),q(X2))	非线性减弱
Min(q(X1),q(X2))＜q(X1∩X2)＜Max(q(X1),q(X2))	单因子非线性减弱
q(X1∩X2)＞Max(q(X1),q(X2))	双因子增强
q(X1∩X2)＝q(X1)+ q(X2)	独立
q(X1∩X2)＞q(X1)+ q(X2)	非线性增强

	中国出口对加勒比国家依赖度			加勒比国家出口对中国依赖度
国家/地区	2008	2014	2019	2008	2014	2019
安提瓜和巴布达	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.04	0.02	0.04
巴哈马	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.08	0.01	7.33
巴巴多斯	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.39	4.08	4.68
伯利兹	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	2.04	0.07
哥伦比亚	0.20	0.30	0.33	3.03	13.81	15.94
哥斯达黎加	0.04	0.04	0.06	23.88	37.32	6.29
古巴	0.08	0.04	0.03	60.57	19.55	38.04
多米尼克	0.01	0.00	0.00	3.86	1.03	0.88
多米尼加共和国	0.05	0.05	0.09	2.17	2.73	4.36
萨尔瓦多	0.03	0.03	0.04	0.13	0.20	1.90
墨西哥	0.96	1.34	1.80	1.25	2.77	3.04
格林纳达	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.12	0.01	0.01
危地马拉	0.07	0.08	0.10	0.15	0.48	1.72
圣基茨和尼维斯	0.00	0.00	0.00	42.34	0.00	0.00
海地	0.01	0.02	0.02	1.12	1.46	0.35
洪都拉斯	0.02	0.03	0.04	0.57	3.97	1.26
牙买加	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.23	2.57	1.70
尼加拉瓜	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.23	0.87	0.85
巴拿马	0.55	0.39	0.31	4.35	15.65	61.99
圭亚那	0.00	0.01	0.01	2.10	3.43	1.20
圣卢西亚	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.02	0.20
圣文森特和格林纳丁斯	0.00	0.00	0.00	42.64	0.06	0.00
苏里南	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.59	2.74	6.06
特立尼达和多巴哥	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.11	0.65	13.69
委内瑞拉	0.21	0.19	0.02	6.82	15.10	28.43
加勒比国家	2.36	2.64	2.95	2.96	5.73	4.78

	中国出口对加勒比国家依赖度			加勒比国家出口对中国依赖度
国家/地区	2008	2014	2019	2008	2014	2019
安提瓜和巴布达	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.04	0.02	0.04
巴哈马	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.08	0.01	7.33
巴巴多斯	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.39	4.08	4.68
伯利兹	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	2.04	0.07
哥伦比亚	0.20	0.30	0.33	3.03	13.81	15.94
哥斯达黎加	0.04	0.04	0.06	23.88	37.32	6.29
古巴	0.08	0.04	0.03	60.57	19.55	38.04
多米尼克	0.01	0.00	0.00	3.86	1.03	0.88
多米尼加共和国	0.05	0.05	0.09	2.17	2.73	4.36
萨尔瓦多	0.03	0.03	0.04	0.13	0.20	1.90
墨西哥	0.96	1.34	1.80	1.25	2.77	3.04
格林纳达	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.12	0.01	0.01
危地马拉	0.07	0.08	0.10	0.15	0.48	1.72
圣基茨和尼维斯	0.00	0.00	0.00	42.34	0.00	0.00
海地	0.01	0.02	0.02	1.12	1.46	0.35
洪都拉斯	0.02	0.03	0.04	0.57	3.97	1.26
牙买加	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.23	2.57	1.70
尼加拉瓜	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.23	0.87	0.85
巴拿马	0.55	0.39	0.31	4.35	15.65	61.99
圭亚那	0.00	0.01	0.01	2.10	3.43	1.20
圣卢西亚	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.02	0.20
圣文森特和格林纳丁斯	0.00	0.00	0.00	42.64	0.06	0.00
苏里南	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.59	2.74	6.06
特立尼达和多巴哥	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.11	0.65	13.69
委内瑞拉	0.21	0.19	0.02	6.82	15.10	28.43
加勒比国家	2.36	2.64	2.95	2.96	5.73	4.78

影响因素	代码	指标说明	指标数据选取	数据来源
政治驱动	X1	腐败控制	腐败控制指数	WGI数据库
政治驱动	X2	政治稳定性	政治稳定性指数	WGI数据库
经济驱动	X3	经济规模	GDP总值	世界银行
	X4	开放程度	吸收对外直接投资
	X5	市场规模	人均GDP
	X6	市场规模	人口数量
资源驱动	X7	自然资源	国土面积
基础设施驱动	X8	班轮效率	班轮运输指数
基础设施驱动	X9	港口效率	货柜码头吞吐量
技术创新驱动	X10	创新水平	专利申请量	世界知识产权组织
地理距离	X11	两国之间的地理距离	两国首都距离	法国CEPII数据库