关键词: 武器贸易格局, 时空演变, 社会网络分析, 中心度, 社团划分

Abstract:

In recent years, Southeast Asian countries have continued to increase weapons and equipment procurement. It is of great significance to deeply analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics of the pattern of Southeast Asian arms trade. From the regional and national levels, import value, import types, arms export scope, export value and export advantage space, combined with the social network analysis methods such as centrality and community division, this paper analyzed the evolution of the geographical pattern of the arms trade in Southeast Asia from 2001 to 2020. The results show that: (1) The diversity of arms import channels in Southeast Asia is gradually increasing, the value of arms imports is growing rapidly, and Southeast Asia has become a new hot spot of global arms trade; (2) There are obvious spatial differences in arms imports in Southeast Asia. The arms import values of various countries are distributed in echelons. The types of arms imports are affected by the land-sea distribution of the territory. Sea and air weapons are the focus of weapons procurement in Southeast Asia; (3) In addition to China and South Korea, Southeast Asia's arms market is still monopolized by Russia, the US and other Western developed countries, whose arms export market scope is gradually expanding; (4) The supply of weapons market in Southeast Asia bears the imprint of the Cold War period, and the competition is becoming increasingly fierce; (5) The Southeast Asian arms trade network mainly includes four associations with Singapore and the United States, Vietnam and Russia, Indonesia and South Korea, Myanmar and China as the main arms importing and exporting countries respectively. Although other members of the association were unstable in different periods, they still accord with the basic characteristics of the East and West arms trade camp on the whole.

Key words: arms trade pattern, temporal and spatial evolution, social network analysis, centrality, community division