中国省际隐含碳转移的空间关联研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2025.11.20240053

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

碳排放的空间转移问题对我国碳排放总量、碳排放空间格局和区域协调发展具有不可忽视的影响。在此背景下，科学核算各省域的碳排放水平，厘清省际的碳转移关系，对于推动省际碳减排合作来说具有重要意义。本研究利用MRIO模型测算了中国30个省域生产侧、消费侧的隐含碳排放规模和省际贸易隐含碳转移规模，并运用SNA分析方法构建了中国省际碳转移的有向加权网络，从关系视角出发对中国省际碳转移网络的结构特征进行了分析。研究发现：①碳转移现象普遍存在于中国各省级行政区域之间，其中，北京、上海、广东、浙江、江苏、安徽、河南、河北、辽宁、山西、内蒙古、新疆、重庆和陕西14个省域的碳转移量较大。②中国省际贸易隐含碳转移关系呈现出复杂的网络形态，网络中的30个省域可划分为以“河北-内蒙古-北京”“江苏-浙江-河南”和“广东”为核心的三大社团，处于同一社团内的省域间的碳流动关系更为紧密。研究结果为中国当前自上而下聚焦于规模控制的碳减排政策体系的优化方向提供了参考，碳减排政策的制定在“规模”约束的基础上应充分考虑省际碳转移的空间关联“关系”，建立区域协同减排机制，通过“规模-关系”的双重控制进一步提升中国的碳减排效率。

关键词: 生产侧碳排放, 消费侧碳排放, 隐含碳转移, 多区域投入产出模型, 社会网络分析

Abstract:

As inter-provincial trade grows, the impact of trans-provincial carbon flows on China's carbon reduction effectiveness is becoming increasingly apparent. To foster inter-provincial cooperation in reducing carbon emissions, it is necessary to account for provincial carbon emissions and clear up the inter-provincial carbon transfer relationship. Using the MRIO model, this study calculated the embodied carbon emissions based on production and consumption in 30 provinces of China in 2012 and 2017. Based on this, networks of embodied carbon transfers in inter-provincial trade were constructed by the SNA method, and the characteristics of the networks were analyzed from the "relationship" perspective. The results show that: ① In China, inter-provincial carbon transfer is a regular occurrence, and Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Anhui, Henan, Hebei, Liaoning, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Chongqing, and Shaanxi are more influential in China's inter-provincial carbon transfer system than the others. ② The embodied carbon transfer network of China's inter-provincial trade is intricate in nature, and the network could be divided into three major communities with "Hebei-Inner Mongolia-Beijing", "Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Henan", and "Guangdong" as the community cores, and the provinces in the same community have stronger relationships for carbon transfer. The results indicate that reducing carbon emissions requires not just controlling "quantity" but also managing "relationships", establishing regional collaborative mechanisms, and enhancing efficiency to reduce carbon emissions requires the combination of controlling "quantity" and managing "relationships".

Key words: production-based carbon emissions, consumption-based carbon emissions, transfer of carbon emissions embodied in trade, multi-regional input-output model, social network analysis

黄丽, 张瑞琳. 中国省际隐含碳转移的空间关联研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2025, 34(11): 140-153.

Li HUANG, Ruilin ZHANG. Research on the embodied carbon transfer network of China's inter-provincial trade: Based on directed weighted network[J]. World Regional Studies, 2025, 34(11): 140-153.

图/表 9

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分类标准	省际碳转移量≥30省均值	省际碳转移量<30省均值
碳排放量≥均值	类型Ⅰ：高排放，高转移	类型Ⅳ：高排放，低转移
碳排放量<均值	类型Ⅱ：低排放，高转移	类型Ⅲ：低排放，低转移

分类标准	省际碳转移量≥30省均值	省际碳转移量<30省均值
碳排放量≥均值	类型Ⅰ：高排放，高转移	类型Ⅳ：高排放，低转移
碳排放量<均值	类型Ⅱ：低排放，高转移	类型Ⅲ：低排放，低转移

类型	特征	特征侧	省份	政策要点
Ⅰ	高排放，高转移	仅消费侧	北京、上海	省内减排
		消费侧和生产侧	广东、浙江、江苏、安徽、河南、河北、辽宁	省际协同
		仅生产侧	山西、内蒙古、新疆
Ⅱ	低排放，高转移	仅消费侧	重庆	省际协同
		消费侧和生产侧	陕西
Ⅳ	高排放，低转移	消费侧和生产侧	山东、湖北	省内减排

类型	特征	特征侧	省份	政策要点
Ⅰ	高排放，高转移	仅消费侧	北京、上海	省内减排
		消费侧和生产侧	广东、浙江、江苏、安徽、河南、河北、辽宁	省际协同
		仅生产侧	山西、内蒙古、新疆
Ⅱ	低排放，高转移	仅消费侧	重庆	省际协同
		消费侧和生产侧	陕西
Ⅳ	高排放，低转移	消费侧和生产侧	山东、湖北	省内减排

序号	等级	边权	2012年			2017年
序号	等级	边权	边数	边数占比	边权占比	边数	边数占比	边权占比
合计			870	100.00%	100.00%	870	100.00%	100.00%
1	低值区	0.00~3.85	524	60.23%	17.74%	493	56.67%	13.35%
2	次低值区	3.86~10.20	230	26.44%	28.85%	218	25.06%	23.43%
3	中值区	10.21~21.38	80	9.19%	23.99%	100	11.49%	24.73%
4	次高值区	21.39~46.30	26	2.99%	15.47%	45	5.17%	23.45%
5	高值区	46.31~134.86	10	1.15%	13.95%	14	1.61%	15.04%