中国沿海港口城市群高质量发展的时空演化与驱动因子识别

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2026.04.20240702

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

沿海港口城市的高质量发展是国家高质量发展的重要组成部分，亟须注入新的发展动能。本文使用2003—2022年中国5大沿海港口城市群的面板数据，结合马尔可夫链、探索性空间自相关和Dagum基尼系数等模型探析其高质量发展的时空演化特征，并运用时空地理加权回归模型识别高质量发展的驱动因子。结果表明：①高质量发展总体水平呈逐步上升趋势，东南沿海、长三角和珠三角区域相对领先，且未来各沿海港口城市保持现有发展层级的可能性较大；②高质量发展整体呈现显著的空间正相关特征，造成空间非均衡现象的原因主要是区域间差异与区域间的交叉重叠效应；③各驱动因子存在显著的时空异质性，信息化水平、人口规模、财政依存度、经济集聚力、产业结构现代化水平和港口建设规模因子具有促进作用，而货运总量因子则有制约作用。

关键词: 沿海港口城市, 高质量发展, 时空演化, 驱动因子, 时空地理加权回归

Abstract:

The high-quality development of coastal port cities is an important component of high-quality development, and it also urgently needs to inject new development momentum. Used panel data from China's five major coastal port city clusters from 2003 to 2022 and combined with models such as Markov chain, exploratory spatial data analysis and Dagum Gini coefficient to explore the spatio-temporal evolution of their high-quality development and identified the driving factors of high-quality development by using a spatiotemporal geographically weighted regression model. The results show that: ① The overall level of high-quality development is gradually increasing, the Southeast coastal area, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions are relatively leading, and there is a high possibility for coastal port cities to maintain their current development levels in the future; ② The overall high-quality development shows a significant positive spatial correlation. The main reason for spatial imbalance is regional differences and overlapping between regions; ③ There is significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity among the driving factors, with the level of information technology, population size, fiscal dependence, economic concentration, modernization of industrial structure and port construction scale having a promoting effect, while the total freight volume has a constraining effect.

Key words: coastal port city, high-quality development, spatio-temporal evolution, driving factors, spatiotemporal geographically weighted regression

李南, 王筑城. 中国沿海港口城市群高质量发展的时空演化与驱动因子识别[J]. 世界地理研究, 2026, 35(4): 104-119.

Nan LI, Zhucheng WANG. The spatio-temporal evolution and identification of driving factors for high-quality development of China's coastal port city clusters[J]. World Regional Studies, 2026, 35(4): 104-119.

图/表 15

表1 沿海港口城市高质量发展评价指标体系

Tab. 1 Evaluation index system for high-quality development of coastal port city

一级指标	二级指标	三级指标	属性	权重
创新发展	科研成果	万人专利授权数/个	+	0.037 8
	教育水平	每万人普通高等学校在校大学生数/人	+	0.064 8
	港口层级	货物集装箱化率/%	+	0.047 7
	智慧港口	是否建成自动化集装箱码头	+	0.071 2
协调发展	产业协调	第三产业增加值/第二产业增加值	+	0.015 5
	消费协调	社会消费品零售额/GDP	+	0.018 6
	集疏条件	城市道路长度/城市面积/（km/km²）	+	0.043 2
	港城协调	RCI指数与“1”的绝对差	+	0.054 7
绿色发展	单位碳排放	单位GDP的碳排放量/（万吨/亿元）	－	0.055 8
	空气质量	PM2.5平均浓度/（微克/立方米）	－	0.056 1
	岸线利用	单位码头岸线集装箱吞吐量/（万TEU/米）	+	0.041 0
	资源集约	单位泊位货物吞吐量/（万吨/个）	+	0.014 6
开放发展	外贸依存	外贸进出口总额/GDP	+	0.046 4
	外资依存	实际利用外资金额/GDP	+	0.062 9
	港口开放	外贸货物吞吐量占比/%	+	0.072 0
	对外门户	是否设立自由贸易试验区沿海临港片区	+	0.095 6
共享发展	产值水平	人均GDP/元	+	0.054 9
	收入水平	城镇居民人均可支配收入/元	+	0.016 1
	货源生成	港口货物吞吐量/GDP/（万吨/亿元）	+	0.074 4
	就业拉动	交通运输从业人员占比/%	+	0.056 7

表2 沿海港口城市样本

Tab. 2 Samples of coastal port cities

区域	沿海港口城市
环渤海	丹东、大连、营口、盘锦、锦州、葫芦岛、秦皇岛、沧州、唐山、天津、滨州、东营、潍坊、烟台、威海、青岛、日照
长三角	连云港、盐城、上海、嘉兴、宁波、舟山、台州、温州
东南沿海	福州、莆田、泉州、厦门
珠三角	汕头、惠州、深圳、东莞、广州、珠海、江门、阳江、茂名
西南沿海	湛江、北海、钦州、防城港、海口

图1 2003—2022年沿海港口城市群高质量发展水平

Fig.1 High quality development level of coastal port city clusters from 2003 to 2022

表3 沿海港口城市群高质量发展传统马尔可夫链矩阵

Tab. 3 Traditional Markov Chain Matrix for high-quality development of coastal port city clusters

t/t+1	L	ML	MH	H	频数/次
L	0.855 1	0.144 9	0	0	214
ML	0.052 6	0.823 0	0.124 4	0	209
MH	0	0.005	0.874 4	0.120 6	199
H	0	0.005 1	0.035 9	0.959 0	195

表4 沿海港口城市群高质量发展的空间马尔可夫链转移概率矩阵

Tab. 4 Spatial Markov Chain Matrix for high-quality development of coastal port city clusters

邻域	状态	L	ML	MH	H	频数/次
L	L	0.923 1	0.076 9	0	0	64
	ML	0.173 9	0.652 2	0.173 9	0	23
	MH	0	0	0.933 3	0.066 7	30
	H	0	0	0.4	0.6	5
ML	L	0.890 6	0.109 4	0	0	110
	ML	0.051 5	0.907 2	0.041 2	0	97
	MH	0	0.02	0.9	0.08	50
	H	0	0	0	1	26
MH	L	0.854 5	0.145 5	0	0	27
	ML	0.026 3	0.802 6	0.171 1	0	76
	MH	0	0	0.883 5	0.116 5	103
	H	0	0.016 9	0.033 9	0.949 2	59
H	L	0.740 7	0.259 3	0	0	13
	ML	0	0.615 4	0.384 6	0	13
	MH	0	0	0.625 0	0.375 0	16
	H	0	0	0.028 6	0.971 4	105

图2 2003、2009、2015、2022年全国沿海港口城市群高质量发展空间异质分布注：基于自然资源部标准地图服务系统下载审图号GS（2024）0650号的标准地图绘制，底图无修改。以下地图同。

Fig.2 Spatial heterogeneity distribution of high-quality development of national coastal port city clusters in 2003， 2009， 2015 and 2022

表5 2003—2022年全国沿海港口城市群高质量发展的莫兰指数

Tab. 5 Moran’s index for high-quality development of national coastal port city clusters from 2003 to 2022

年份	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
Moran’s I	0.469^***	0.446^***	0.234^**	0.259^**	0.260^**	0.210^**	0.223^**
年份	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016
Moran’s I	0.224^**	0.215^**	0.200^**	0.198^**	0.231^**	0.281^***	0.237^***
年份	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Moran’s I	0.202^**	0.296^**	0.226^**	0.190^**	0.228^**	0.198^**

表6 2003、2009、2015、2022年全国沿海港口城市群高质量发展LISA聚类水平

Tab.6 LISA Cluster for high-quality development of national coastal port city clusters in 2003, 2009, 2015, 2022

类型/年份	2003年	2009年	2015年	2022年
H-H	深圳、珠海、广州、惠州、江门、东莞	深圳、广州、惠州、东莞	广州、东莞、嘉兴	嘉兴、东莞
H-L	秦皇岛、天津	大连		大连
L-H		江门	江门、惠州	惠州
L-L	滨州、东营	东营、锦州	东营	锦州、盘锦、营口、茂名

图3 2003—2022年全国沿海港口城市群高质量发展水平Dagum基尼系数

Fig. 3 Dagum Gini coefficient for high-quality development of national coastal port city clusters，2003-2022

图4 2003—2022年全国沿海港口城市群高质量发展水平区域内、区域间差异

Fig. 4 Regional and inter regional differences for high-quality development of national coastal port city clusters from 2003 to 2022

表7 沿海港口城市群高质量发展的驱动因子

Tab.7 Driving factors for high-quality development of coastal port city clusters

驱动因子	指标名称	权重
信息化水平	每百人固定互联网宽带接入用户/（户/百人）
人口规模	人口密度/（百人/km²）
产业结构现代化	第三产业增加值/GDP/%
货运总量	货运总量/亿吨
经济集聚力	沿海港口城市人均GDP/全国人均GDP/%
财政依存度	地方财政收入/GDP/%
港口建设规模	码头长度/米	0.168 5
	泊位个数/个	0.203 3
	泊位年设计货物通过能力/万吨	0.201 9
	泊位年设计集装箱通过能力/万TEU	0.426 3

表8 模型拟合度对比

Tab. 8 The comparison of model fit

模型	$R 2$	AICc
OLS	0.76	-3376.8
GWR	0.88	-3866.8
GTWR	0.91	-4054.3

表8 模型拟合度对比

Tab. 8 The comparison of model fit

模型	$R 2$	AICc
OLS	0.76	-3376.8
GWR	0.88	-3866.8
GTWR	0.91	-4054.3

表9 沿海港口城市群高质量发展时空地理加权回归结果

Tab. 9 The GTWR results of high-quality development of coastal port city clusters

变量/参数	VIF	平均系数	平均P值
信息化水平	1.66	0.015	0.036
人口规模	1.91	0.021	0.000
产业结构现代化	2.36	0.086	0.000
货运总量	2.90	-0.012	0.000
经济集聚力	1.50	0.025	0.000
财政依存度	2.18	0.0008	0.042
港口建设规模	3.91	0.248	0.000
Interncept（截距项）		-0.156	0.029

图5 2003—2022年全国沿海港口城市群高质量发展驱动因子的时序演化趋势

Fig. 5 The temporal evolution trend of driving factors for high-quality development of national coastal port city clusters from 2003 to 2022

图6 2003—2022年全国沿海港口城市群高质量发展驱动因子的空间差异特征

Fig. 6 The characteristics of spatial differences of driving factors for high-quality development of national coastal port city clusters from 2003 to 2022

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