城市绿色发展效率的空间分异及影响因素——基于山东省17地市面板数据

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2020.05.2019218

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

绿色发展效率的研究对于我国绿色发展水平的提升具有重要的借鉴作用。文章构建了城市绿色发展效率评价指标体系，并利用SBM-Undesirable模型、多元回归模型等多种计量方法对2005—2017年山东省17地级市绿色发展效率与影响因素进行了综合研究，结果表明：①基于非期望产出的绿色发展效率因考虑实际成本更加可靠、更贴近现实。②2005—2017年间，山东省17地市平均绿色发展效率呈现“峰-谷-峰-谷”的变化特征，且2005—2017年17地市平均绿色发展效率的标准差与变异系数呈现波动变化特征。③经济发展水平、财政支持对于绿色发展效率提升起到负向作用，外商直接投资具有显著的正向促进作用，而产业结构、科学技术和市场化水平等因素未通过显著性水平检验。

关键词: 绿色发展效率, 绩效评价, 影响因素, 山东省

Abstract:

Study on green development efficiency is important to improve the level of China’s green development. This paper constructs the evaluation index system of green development efficiency and analyzes the influencing factors of green development efficiency of 17 prefecture-level cities in Shandong Province from 2005 to 2017by using SBM-Undesirable model and multiple regression model. The results show that: ①Green development efficiency considering unexpected output is more reliable and closer to reality by considering real cost. ②The green development efficiency of Shandong Province presents the changing characteristics of "peak-valley-peak-valley" from 2005 to 2017. The standard deviation and coefficient of variation of green development efficiency of Shandong Province show fluctuating characteristics from 2005 to 2017. ③Economic development and financial support play a negative role in improving green development efficiency, and foreign direct investment has a significant positive effect. The factors of industrial structure, science and technology and marketization don’t pass the significance level test.

Key words: green development efficiency, performance evaluation, influencing factors, Shandong Province

郭付友, 陈才, 刘志刚. 城市绿色发展效率的空间分异及影响因素——基于山东省17地市面板数据[J]. 世界地理研究, 2020, 29(5): 1040-1048.

Fuyou GUO, Cai CHEN, Zhigang LIU. Evaluation and influence factors of green development efficiency ——Based on panel data of 17 cities in Shandong Province[J]. World Regional Studies, 2020, 29(5): 1040-1048.

图/表 3

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地级市	2005	2007	2009	2011	2013	2015	2017
济南	0.5596	0.6276	0.8882	0.7713	0.8284	0.8336	1.0000
青岛	0.5232	0.7465	0.8388	1.0000	0.9012	1.0000	1.0000
淄博	1.0000	0.8112	0.5357	0.5682	0.5548	0.5265	0.5562
枣庄	0.5651	0.6206	0.5794	0.5210	0.4708	0.4732	0.6168
东营	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	0.8852	0.9141	1.0000
烟台	0.4947	0.6266	0.7013	0.7701	0.7623	1.0000	1.0000
潍坊	0.3568	0.4101	0.4331	0.4507	0.4717	0.4841	0.5361
济宁	0.4460	0.5830	0.4648	0.5484	0.5253	0.5508	0.6394
泰安	0.5523	0.5712	0.5560	0.5297	0.5647	0.5837	0.7508
威海	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	0.8168	0.8942	0.9680	1.0000
日照	0.7851	0.8103	0.5499	0.4419	0.4543	0.4092	0.4688
莱芜	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	0.6123	0.4768	0.6041
临沂	0.4580	0.5979	0.5035	0.5409	0.4594	0.4611	0.4738
德州	0.4120	0.4929	0.4305	0.5286	0.5413	0.5365	0.5823
聊城	0.5390	0.6086	0.5265	0.5276	0.5108	0.5260	0.5776
滨州	0.5262	0.6497	0.6005	0.5228	0.4877	0.3899	0.3719
菏泽	0.4736	0.5214	1.0000	0.7579	0.6285	0.5771	0.7409
平均值	0.6289	0.6869	0.6828	0.6645	0.6208	0.6300	0.7011

地级市	2005	2007	2009	2011	2013	2015	2017
济南	0.5596	0.6276	0.8882	0.7713	0.8284	0.8336	1.0000
青岛	0.5232	0.7465	0.8388	1.0000	0.9012	1.0000	1.0000
淄博	1.0000	0.8112	0.5357	0.5682	0.5548	0.5265	0.5562
枣庄	0.5651	0.6206	0.5794	0.5210	0.4708	0.4732	0.6168
东营	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	0.8852	0.9141	1.0000
烟台	0.4947	0.6266	0.7013	0.7701	0.7623	1.0000	1.0000
潍坊	0.3568	0.4101	0.4331	0.4507	0.4717	0.4841	0.5361
济宁	0.4460	0.5830	0.4648	0.5484	0.5253	0.5508	0.6394
泰安	0.5523	0.5712	0.5560	0.5297	0.5647	0.5837	0.7508
威海	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	0.8168	0.8942	0.9680	1.0000
日照	0.7851	0.8103	0.5499	0.4419	0.4543	0.4092	0.4688
莱芜	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	0.6123	0.4768	0.6041
临沂	0.4580	0.5979	0.5035	0.5409	0.4594	0.4611	0.4738
德州	0.4120	0.4929	0.4305	0.5286	0.5413	0.5365	0.5823
聊城	0.5390	0.6086	0.5265	0.5276	0.5108	0.5260	0.5776
滨州	0.5262	0.6497	0.6005	0.5228	0.4877	0.3899	0.3719
菏泽	0.4736	0.5214	1.0000	0.7579	0.6285	0.5771	0.7409
平均值	0.6289	0.6869	0.6828	0.6645	0.6208	0.6300	0.7011

模型	变量	非标化系数		标化系数	t
模型	变量	B	Std. Error	Beta	t
1	Constant	-0.657^***	0.031		-20.892
1	Ed²	0.083^***	0.011	0.482	7.816
2	Constant	-0.0395^***	0.063		-6.25
	Ed²	0.111^***	0.012	0.641	9.459
	Fs	-0.113^***	0.024	-0.318	-4.693
3	Constant	-0.343^***	0.064		-5.366
	Ed²	0.105^***	0.012	0.604	8.99
	Fs	-0.153^***	0.027	-0.432	-5.747
	Fi	0.062^***	0.019	0.229	3.21
4	Constant	-0.267^***	0.078		-3.444
	Ed²	0.153^***	0.031	0.885	4.979
	Fs	-0.147^***	0.027	-0.414	-5.485
	Fi	0.067^***	0.019	0.25	3.466
	Ed	-0.153^*	0.09	-0.315	-1.705

模型	变量	非标化系数		标化系数	t
模型	变量	B	Std. Error	Beta	t
1	Constant	-0.657^***	0.031		-20.892
1	Ed²	0.083^***	0.011	0.482	7.816
2	Constant	-0.0395^***	0.063		-6.25
	Ed²	0.111^***	0.012	0.641	9.459
	Fs	-0.113^***	0.024	-0.318	-4.693
3	Constant	-0.343^***	0.064		-5.366
	Ed²	0.105^***	0.012	0.604	8.99
	Fs	-0.153^***	0.027	-0.432	-5.747
	Fi	0.062^***	0.019	0.229	3.21
4	Constant	-0.267^***	0.078		-3.444
	Ed²	0.153^***	0.031	0.885	4.979
	Fs	-0.147^***	0.027	-0.414	-5.485
	Fi	0.067^***	0.019	0.25	3.466
	Ed	-0.153^*	0.09	-0.315	-1.705

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