主管单位：中国科学技术协会
主办单位：中国地理学会
承办单位：华东师范大学
世界地理研究

世界地理研究 ›› 2021, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (1): 90-100.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2021.01.2019400

• 城市与区域 • 上一篇    下一篇

东中部地区城市人口、经济与城市建设用地的非均衡与协调性分析

周克昊1,2(), 谭荣辉3   

  1. 1.天津城建大学经济与管理学院，天津 300384
    2.天津城镇化与新农村建设研究中心，天津 300384
    3.天津大学管理与经济学部，天津 300072
  • 收稿日期:2019-08-19 修回日期:2019-12-23 出版日期:2021-01-09 发布日期:2021-04-09
  • 作者简介:周克昊（1988-），女，讲师，研究方向为土地利用及生态环境效应、土地评价与规划，E-mail:kzhouwhu@163.com。
  • 基金资助:
    教育部人文社科基金项目(17YJC630233);教育部人文社科基金项目(16YJC630109);国家自然科学基金项目(71704129)

Characterizing the coordination and disequilibrium pattern of urban population, economics and urban built-up area in Eastern and Mid-China region

Kehao ZHOU1,2(), Ronghui TAN3   

  1. 1.School of Econimics and Management, Tianjin Chengjian University, Tianjin 300384, China
    2.The Research Center of Urbanization and New Rural Construction in Tianjin, Tianjin 300384, China
    3.College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
  • Received:2019-08-19 Revised:2019-12-23 Online:2021-01-09 Published:2021-04-09

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摘要：

基于2000、2015年中国东中部地区261个地级市统计与土地利用数据，运用空间自相关模型，变异系数和三元协调度模型分析其城市人口、GDP和城市建设用地的空间集聚态势和非均衡变化过程，揭示人口城市化与土地城市化的协调程度。结果显示：（1）城市人口、GDP和建设用地的Moran’s I指数均为正值且2015年的值大于2000年的值，显示出明显的空间集聚特征，且在2000—2015年集聚特征不断加强；（2）城市人口密度和人均GDP的变异系数分别从2000年的1.38和0.91下降到2015年的0.96和0.70，地均GDP从1.32上升到1.77，表明城市人口密度和地均GDP的差异在逐步减小，但地均GDP的不均衡性却在增大；（3）2015年，共有171个地级市城市用地规模增长弹性系数小于1.12且人均城市用地小于115m2，但有104个地级市地均GDP在1000元/m2以下，表明虽然绝大部分地级市城市化规模和速率都在可控范围之内，城市用地经济产出仍然相对较低；（4）90%以上地级市的城市人口、GDP和城市建设用地三者在两个研究时间段内处于协调发展状态。

关键词: 城市人口, 经济, 城市建设用地, 空间集聚, 非均衡特征

Abstract:

Based on statistic and land use dataset of 261 prefectural cities in Eastern and Mid-China region in China from 2000 to 2015, this paper analyzed the spatial agglomeration and disequilibrium pattern change of urban population, GDP and urban built-up area and revealed the coordination degree between population urbanization rate and land urbanization rate by using spatial autocorrelation model, variation coefficient and the coupling model of three factors. The results show that: (1) the Moran's I value of urban population, GDP and construction land are all positive and the value in 2015 are larger than the value in 2000, implying an increased tendency of spatial cluster pattern from 2000 to 2015; (2) the variation coefficient of urban population and GDP per capita decreased from 1.38 and 0.91 in 2000 to 0.96 and 0.70 in 2015 respectively, while GDP per land increased from 1.32 to 1.77, which indicates the difference of urban population density and GDP per capita decreased but the difference of GDP per land increased in the same period; (3) the elastic coefficient of urban land increasing scale of 171 prefectural cities are lower than 1.12 and urban land per capita are lower than 115m2,which shows that land urbanization rate and scale are reasonable and can be controlled for most of cities, but economic outputs of urban land are still relatively low; (4) urban population, GDP and urban land are harmonious in both time spans for more than 90% of the prefectural cities. This paper will provide references and bases for formulating ordered, reasonable and balanced policies on the development and utilization of national land space, as well as solving urban spatial pattern optimization problems.

Key words: urban population, economy, urban land, spatial cluster, disequilibrium