中国边界县区人口老龄化的时空格局及其影响因素研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2021.02.2019444

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

受功能文化区理论和距离衰减定律的影响，中国边界县区凸显出明显的特性，这种“边界效应”深刻影响到老龄化进程。利用2000、2010年分县人口普查数据，统计分析边界县区人口老龄化时空格局，通过空间分析方法和路径分析模型，剖析中国边界县区老龄化进程的影响机理。研究表明：①2000—2010年中国边界县区老龄化率虽低于全国平均水平但增速明显，且集中分布的趋势在相对减弱，空间差异增大，总体上呈现出东南-西北方向较为明显的分异；②热点县区集聚带基本分布于中国东南部，冷点县区集聚带基本分布于中国西北部，且热点县区显示出由东向西扩展、由北向南转移的趋势；③中国边界县区老龄化的直接影响因子为预期寿命、生育率和迁移率。其中预期寿命和生育率对边界县区老龄化有正向效应，迁移率则对边界县区老龄化产生负向效应；且预期寿命影响强度最大，迁移率次之，生育率影响强度最弱；④经济因素、社会因素、家庭因素和自然因素作为外生变量，分别对边界县区老龄化率产生直接和间接的影响。其中正向因子按总效应值依次为人均教育水平、家庭结构、居住条件、人居环境指数、人均GDP和城镇化率，对老龄化率产生促进作用。

关键词: 人口老龄化, 边界县区, 路径分析, 影响机理, 中国

Abstract:

China's border counties have affected by the theory of functional culture regions and distance decay laws, meanwhile the "border effects" has been presented vividly and affects the process of its population ageing deeply. Moreover, extensive attention has been paid to regional trade and regional disparity of borders, however, the importance of borders' population ageing should never be overlooked. To fill this gap, based on the spatial units of county-level region and using data from the population censuses of 2000 and 2010, with the help of spatial analysis method and path analysis model, the Spatial-temporal pattern and changing process of population ageing in China's border counties was statistically analyzed. Because the spatial complexity of border counties, the approach of path analysis model was introduced to explore the path relationship between various variables and the influencing mechanism of ageing process. The primary results are found as follows: (1)The population aging in China's border counties is lower but increased significantly compared with national average lever from 2000 to 2010, meanwhile the spatial agglomeration is decreased and spatial difference is increased. In general, southeast-northwest spatial differentiation of population ageing in China's border counties is presented vividly and obviously. (2)The agglomeration belt of hotspot is located in the southeast of China while cold spot is located in the northwest of China basically, and the trend of hotspot countries is showed that it has extended from east to west and transferred from north to south. (3) Life expectancy, migration and fertility are the direct influencing factors of population ageing in China's border counties, and the influencing effects decreased systematically. What's more, life expectancy and fertility have significant positive-effects on population aging in China's border counties while migration has significant negative-effects. (4) Economic, social, family and natural factors as external variables have significant direct-effects and indirect-effects on population aging in China's border counties. And according to total effect value, the positive factors are per capita education level, family structure, living conditions, human settlements environment index, per capita GDP and urbanization rate, which promote population aging.

Key words: population ageing, border counties, path analysis, influencing mechanism, China

常亮, 敖荣军. 中国边界县区人口老龄化的时空格局及其影响因素研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2021, 30(2): 410-421.

Liang CHANG, Rongjun AO. Spatio-temporal pattern and influencing mechanism analysis of population ageing in China's border counties[J]. World Regional Studies, 2021, 30(2): 410-421.

图/表 5

图1 2000、2010年中国边界县区人口老龄化格局注：根据国家测绘地理信息局标准地图 (审图号: GS (2016) 1569号) 绘制，底图无修改，下同。

Fig.1 Spatial pattern of population ageing in China’s border counties in 2000 and 2010

图2 2000—2010年中国边界县区人口老龄化率的变化格局

Fig.2 Changing pattern of population ageing in China’s border counties from 2000 to 2010

图3 2000—2010年中国边界县区人口老龄化率的热点分布格局

Fig.3 Hotspot zones pattern of population ageing in China’s border counties in 2000 and 2010

图4 边界县区人口老龄化率的路径分析模型

Fig.4 Path analysis model of population ageing in China’s border counties

图5 经济因素、社会因素、家庭因素和自然因素的因子路径分析图注：以上数值均为标准化的回归系数估计值。*表示显著性水平为1%，**表示显著性水平为5%。

Fig.5 Variables path analysis diagram of economic, social, family and natural factors

参考文献 30

1	朱传耿, 王振波, 孟召宜. 我国省际边界区域的研究进展及展望. 经济地理, 2007, 27(2): 302-305, 290.
	Zhu C, Wang Z, Meng Z. Recent progress of studies on the provincial border regions and its prospects in China. Economic Geography, 2007, 27(2): 302-305, 290.
2	夏雪,韩增林,赵林, 等. 省际边缘区区域经济差异的时空格局与形成机理——以鄂豫皖赣为例. 经济地理, 2014, 34(5): 21-27.
	Xia X, Han Z, Zhao L, et al. Spatio-temporal pattern and mechanism of economic development discrepancy in provincial border-regions: A case study of Hubei-Henan-Anhui-Jiangxi. Economic Geography, 2014, 34(5): 21-27.
3	Mccallum J. National borders matter: Canada-U.S. regional trade patterns. American Economic Review, 1995, 85(3):615-623.
4	Engel C, Rogers J H. How wide is the border ?. American Economic Review, 1996, 86(5): 1112-1125.
5	Head K, Mayer T. Non- Europe: The magnitude and causes of market fragmentation in the EU. Review of World Economics, 2000, 136(2): 284-314.
6	曹小曙, 徐建斌. 中国省际边界区县域经济格局及影响因素的空间异质性. 地理学报, 2018, 73(6): 1065-1075.
	Cao X, Xu J. Spatial heterogeneity analysis of regional economic development and driving factors in China's provincial border counties. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(6): 1065-1075.
7	余凤鸣,张阳生,周杜辉,等.基于ESDA-GIS的省际边缘区经济空间分异——以呼包鄂榆经济区为例.地理科学进展,2012,31(8):997-1004.
	Yu F,Zhang Y, Zhou D,et al.Analyzing provincial border-regional economic disparities based on ESDA and GIS:A case study of Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos-Yulin economic zone.Progress in Geography,2012,31(8):997-1004.
8	张学波, 杨成凤, 宋金平, 等. 中国省际边缘县域经济差异空间格局演变. 经济地理, 2015, 35(7): 30-38.
	Zhang X, Yang C, Song J, et al. Spatial pattern evolution of China provincial border counties economic disparity. Economic Geography, 2015, 35(7): 30-38.
9	Lutz W, Sanderson W, Scherbov S. The coming acceleration of global population ageing. Nature, 2008,451: 716-719.
10	Kim S. Intra-regional residential movement of the elderly: Testing a suburban-to-urban migration hypothesis. Annals of Regional Science, 2011, 46(1): 1-17.
11	Moore E G, Pacey M A. Geographic dimensions of aging in Canada 1991-2001. SEDAP Research Paper No. 97, 2003.
12	陈明华, 郝国彩. 中国人口老龄化地区差异分解及影响因素研究. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2014, 24(4): 136-141.
	Chen M, Hao G. Research on regional difference decomposition and influence factors of population aging in China. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2014, 24(4): 136-141.
13	赵东霞, 韩增林, 王利. 中国老年人口分布的集疏格局及其形成机制. 地理学报, 2017, 72(10): 1762-1775.
	Zhao D, Han Z, Wang L. The spatial pattern of aging population distribution and its generating mechanism in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(10): 1762-1775.
14	康江江, 丁志伟, 张改素, 等. 中原地区人口老龄化的多尺度时空格局. 经济地理, 2016, 36(4): 29-37.
	Kang J, Ding Z, Zhang G, et al. Multi-scale spatio-temporal pattern of aging population in central plains region. Economic Geography, 2016, 36(4): 29-37.
15	王录仓, 武荣伟. 中国人口老龄化时空变化及成因探析——基于县域尺度的考察. 中国人口科学, 2016(4): 74-84.
	Wang L, Wu R. A study on spatial-temporal pattern of population ageing and its factors in China: based on county-scale examination. Population Science of China, 2016 (4): 74-84.
16	Zhou S H, Xie M, Kwan M P. Ageing in place and ageing with migration in the transitional context of urban China: A case study of ageing communities in Guangzhou. Habitat International, 2015,49: 177-186.
17	周春山, 童新梅, 王珏晗, 等. 2000-2010年广州市人口老龄化空间分异及形成机制. 地理研究, 2018, 37(1): 103-118.
	Zhou C, Tong X, Wang J, et al. Spatial differentiation and the formation mechanism of population aging in Guangzhou in 2000-2010. Geographical Research, 2018, 37(1): 103-118.
18	于涛方. 中国城市老龄化空间特征及相关因素分析. 城市规划学刊, 2013(6): 58-66.
	Yu T. China's aging population and its spatial features in city areas (2000-2010). Urban Planning Forum, 2013, (6): 58-66.
19	王录仓,武荣伟,李巍.中国城市群人口老龄化时空格局.地理学报,2017,72(6):1001-1016.
	Wang L,Wu R,Li W.Spatial-temporal patterns of population aging on China's urban agglomerations Acta Geographica Sinica,2017,72(6):1001-1016.
20	陈锡文,陈昱阳,张建军. 中国农村人口老龄化对农业产出影响的量化研究. 中国人口科学, 2011(2): 39-46, 111.
	Chen X, Chen Y, Zhang J. An analysis of rural population aging's effect on agricultural output in China. Chinese Journal of Population Science, 2011(2): 39-46, 111.
21	Pattison W D. The four traditions of geography. Journal of Geography, 1964, 63(5): 211-216.
22	陆大道. 关于地理学的"人—地系统"理论研究. 地理研究, 2002, 21(2): 135-139.
	Lu D. Theoretical studies of man-land system as core of geographical science. Geographical Research, 2002, 21(2): 135-139.
23	王成龙, 刘慧, 张梦天. 边界效应研究进展及展望. 地理科学进展, 2016, 35(9): 1109-1118.
	Wang C, Liu H, Zhang M. Progress and prospects of border effect research. Progress in Geography, 2016, 35(9): 1109-1118.
24	高晓路, 吴丹贤, 许泽宁. 中国老龄化地理学综述和研究框架构建. 地理科学进展, 2015, 34(12): 1480-1494.
	Gao X, Wu D, Xu Z. A review and frame-work setting of geographical research on aging in China. Progress in Geography, 2015, 34(12): 1480-1494.
25	张晓虹. 陕西文化区划及其机制分析. 人文地理, 2000, 15(3): 17-21, 72.
	Zhang X. Analysis of form reasons of Shaanxi cultural divisions. Human Geography, 2000, 15(3): 17-21, 72.
26	周侃, 樊杰. 中国欠发达地区资源环境承载力特征与影响因素——以宁夏西海固地区和云南怒江州为例. 地理研究, 2015, 34(1): 39-52.
	Zhou K, Fan J. Characteristics and influence factors of resources and environment carrying capacity in underdeveloped areas of China. Geographical Research, 2015, 34(1): 39-52.
27	Goodchild M, Haining R, Wise S, et al. Integrating GIS and spatial data analysis: problems and possibilities. International Journal of Geographical Information Systems, 1992, 6(5): 407-423.
28	杨文越, 曹小曙. 居住自选择视角下的广州出行碳排放影响机理. 地理学报, 2018, 73(2): 346-361.
	Yang W, Cao X. The influence mechanism of travel-related CO2 emissions from the perspective of residential self-selection: a case study of Guangzhou. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(2): 346-361.
29	裴韬, 刘亚溪, 郭思慧, 等. 地理大数据挖掘的本质. 地理学报, 2019, 74(3): 586-598.
	Pei T, Liu Y, Guo S, et al. Principle of big geodata mining. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(3): 586-598.
30	封志明, 唐焰, 杨艳昭, 等. 基于GIS的中国人居环境指数模型的建立与应用. 地理学报, 2008, 63(12): 1327-1336.
	Feng Z, Tang Y, Yang Y, et al. Establishment and application of human settlements environment index model(HEI) based on GIS. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2008, 63(12): 1327-1336.

[1]	赵敏, 张俊, 李鹏. 泛亚高铁建设背景下中国西南-东南亚城市联系的多情景预测[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(3): 1-16.
[2]	李连刚, 胡晓辉. 新冠肺炎疫情下中国区域经济韧性时空格局与影响因素分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(3): 64-75.
[3]	谢潇, 盈斌, 杜芳娟, 宋潇玉, 吴函彦. 中国妇幼健康水平的区域差异和影响因素[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(2): 82-92.
[4]	王丽敏, 吴相利, 刘凡, 张少铎. CEO空间经历对中国民营企业500强总部区位选择影响分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(1): 67-79.
[5]	梁茂林, 彭邦文, 骆华松, 洪菊花. 中国与周边国家地缘经济关系测度与时空格局演变分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(1): 43-53.
[6]	王孟林, 陈瑛, 张婷婷. 中国对美国州层面直接投资时空演变与驱动因素探究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(1): 54-66.
[7]	韩瑞玲, 李玲玲, 姚海芳. 中国客运航空网络节点结构及其外部性因素的空间异质性研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2022, 31(5): 967-977.
[8]	焦士兴, 王安周, 陈林芳, 张建伟, 赵荣钦, 李中轩, 尹义星. 中国省域三维水生态足迹及其驱动研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2022, 31(5): 988-997.
[9]	李祺祥, 游小珺, 韦素琼. 基于事件数据分析法的两岸关系测度及影响因素研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2022, 31(3): 514-526.
[10]	应奎, 李旭东. 中国人口死亡率空间格局演变及其影响因素[J]. 世界地理研究, 2022, 31(2): 440-452.
[11]	张婷婷, 陈瑛, 王孟林. 基于航空联系的中国城市网络格局演变分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2022, 31(1): 166-176.
[12]	李兵, 彭飞. 基于GDELT数据库的中国及东南亚国家间地缘关系演变[J]. 世界地理研究, 2021, 30(6): 1127-1139.
[13]	付逸飞. 入户盗窃犯罪的时空分布热点及其机理研究——以A市CP区警情分析为例[J]. 世界地理研究, 2021, 30(5): 1005-1014.
[14]	车冰清, 孙东琪, 朱传耿. “一带一路”建设背景下中国区域空间响应差异及形成机制[J]. 世界地理研究, 2021, 30(5): 903-912.
[15]	李聪, 卢明华. 中国跨境进口电商企业的时空特征及影响因素分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2021, 30(5): 937-947.