基于GDELT数据库的全球涉北极事件国家间地缘关系研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.10.20230039

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着全球气候变暖，北极地区海冰正以前所未有的速度迅速融化，该地区经济、资源及战略等价值愈加凸显，北极地缘政治问题不断升温。在此背景下，文章基于GDELT数据库，运用数理统计、地层约束聚类、社会网络等方法对2013年第二季度至2022年第三季度的全球涉北极事件国家间地缘关系进行研究。结果表明：①研究期间，全球涉北极事件国家间合作-冲突事件均可划分为两个阶段，与第一阶段相比，第二阶段各国对北极的关注度有所降低，但其中合作仍占主导地位。②全球涉北极事件国家间地缘关系网络呈现以北极国家为中心的“核心-外围”结构。随着中国、英国等北极理事会观察员国对北极的关注不断提升和在事务上的广泛参与，北极在关系网络中的地位有所提升。③全球涉北极事件国家间地缘政治关系呈现出良好发展态势，但部分国家与其他国家存在地缘关系不对等现象，其中俄罗斯与其他国家的不对等现象较为严重。④北极经济、资源及战略价值凸显，地缘政治环境影响，北极地区军事化日益严重，以及北极环境保护观念淡化等因素共同推动全球涉北极事件国家地缘关系演变。

关键词: 北极, 涉北极事件国家, 地缘关系, GDELT数据库, 社会网络分析

Abstract:

As the global climate warms, the sea ice in the Arctic region is rapidly melting at an unprecedented and unpredictable rate. The economic, resource and strategic value of this region is becoming more and more prominent, and more and more countries are turning their attention to the Arctic, geopolitical issues in the Arctic continue to heat up. In this context, based on the GDELT database, this article uses methods such as mathematical statistics, stratigraphic constrained clustering, and social networks to study the geographic relationship between countries in the global Arctic-related incidents from the second quarter of 2013 to the third quarter of 2022. The results show that: ① During the study period, the cooperation-conflict events among countries in the global "Arctic-related" incidents can be divided into two stages. Compared to the first phase, the second phase saw a decrease in the attention of countries to the Arctic, where cooperation still dominates ②The global network of geopolitical relations between countries involved in Arctic-related events presents a "core-periphery" structure centered on the Arctic countries. As China, the United Kingdom and other Arctic Council observer states pay more attention to the Arctic and participate extensively in affairs, their network status has improved; ③The geopolitical relations between countries in the global Arctic-related incidents have shown a good development trend, but Some of these countries have unequal geographical relations with other countries, especially Russia and other countries; ④The economic, resource and strategic value of the Arctic are prominent, the influence of the geopolitical environment, the increasing militarization of the Arctic region, and the concept of environmental protection in the Arctic have potential effects, promote the evolution of geopolitical relations among countries involved in the global "Arctic-related" incidents.

Key words: the Arctic, Arctic-related event countries, geographical relations, GDELT database, social network analysis

齐芯莉, 李振福, 张琦琦, 李佳奇. 基于GDELT数据库的全球涉北极事件国家间地缘关系研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(10): 43-57.

Xinli QI, Zhenfu LI, Qiqi ZHANG, Jiaqi LI. Research on the geo-relationship among countries in the global Arctic-related events based on GDELT Database[J]. World Regional Studies, 2024, 33(10): 43-57.

图/表 12

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大洲	国家（地区）
欧洲	冰岛、俄罗斯、丹麦、挪威、瑞典、芬兰、荷兰、英国、乌克兰、法国、德国、瑞士、比利时、意大利、波兰、希腊、捷克、奥地利、爱尔兰、匈牙利、西班牙、爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚、立陶宛、塞浦路斯、白俄罗斯、摩纳哥、摩尔多瓦
亚洲	中国、日本、印度、韩国、朝鲜、土耳其、以色列、沙特阿拉伯、伊朗、叙利亚、巴基斯坦、阿富汗、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、文莱、菲律宾、新加坡、越南、哈萨克斯坦、阿塞拜疆、约旦、卡塔尔、伊拉克、马尔代夫、黎巴嫩
北美洲	加拿大、美国、墨西哥、哥斯达黎加、危地马拉、牙买加、萨尔瓦多、多米尼加、尼加拉瓜、伯利兹
南美洲	阿根廷、巴西、智利
非洲	摩洛哥、南非、利比亚、埃及、尼日利亚、塞拉利昂、乍得、塞舌尔
大洋洲	澳大利亚、新西兰、斐济、库克群岛、萨摩亚

大洲	国家（地区）
欧洲	冰岛、俄罗斯、丹麦、挪威、瑞典、芬兰、荷兰、英国、乌克兰、法国、德国、瑞士、比利时、意大利、波兰、希腊、捷克、奥地利、爱尔兰、匈牙利、西班牙、爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚、立陶宛、塞浦路斯、白俄罗斯、摩纳哥、摩尔多瓦
亚洲	中国、日本、印度、韩国、朝鲜、土耳其、以色列、沙特阿拉伯、伊朗、叙利亚、巴基斯坦、阿富汗、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、文莱、菲律宾、新加坡、越南、哈萨克斯坦、阿塞拜疆、约旦、卡塔尔、伊拉克、马尔代夫、黎巴嫩
北美洲	加拿大、美国、墨西哥、哥斯达黎加、危地马拉、牙买加、萨尔瓦多、多米尼加、尼加拉瓜、伯利兹
南美洲	阿根廷、巴西、智利
非洲	摩洛哥、南非、利比亚、埃及、尼日利亚、塞拉利昂、乍得、塞舌尔
大洋洲	澳大利亚、新西兰、斐济、库克群岛、萨摩亚

区间	[MIN⁺, M⁺-STD⁺)	[M⁺-STD⁺, M⁺)	[M⁺, M⁺+STD⁺)	[M⁺+STD⁺, MAX⁺]
国际关系等级	普通	良好	友好	亲密
区间	[MIN^-, M^--STD^-)	[M^--STD^-, M^-)	[M^-, M^-+STD^-)	[M^-+STD^-, MAX^-]
国际关系等级	敌对	对立	紧张	不和

区间	[MIN⁺, M⁺-STD⁺)	[M⁺-STD⁺, M⁺)	[M⁺, M⁺+STD⁺)	[M⁺+STD⁺, MAX⁺]
国际关系等级	普通	良好	友好	亲密
区间	[MIN^-, M^--STD^-)	[M^--STD^-, M^-)	[M^-, M^-+STD^-)	[M^-+STD^-, MAX^-]
国际关系等级	敌对	对立	紧张	不和

时间范围	事件
2013年第二季度	日本、韩国获得北极理事会正式观察员国身份等
2013年第四季度	《中国-北欧北极研究中心合作协议》正式签署，日本及芬兰外长会谈同意合作开发北极；“第21届韩国-挪威经济合作委员会”会议举行，双方探讨加强北极资源开发合作等
2015年第三季度	第三届国际北极论坛顺利召开，多国领导人出席会议并就北极地区合作进行磋商等
2016年第一季度	美国“北极合作大会”及首轮中日韩北极事务高级别对话顺利举行等
2017年第一、二季度	召开第五届“中国-北欧北极合作研讨会”及第四届“北极—对话区域”国际北极论坛顺利召开等
2018年第四季度	召开第二届北极科学部长级会议等