京津冀城市物流联系时空演变及驱动因素研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2022.05.2020525

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于2005年、2010年和2017年三期数据，采用修正引力模型、社会网络分析法解析京津冀城市物流联系时空演变，并剖析城市物流联系强度的驱动因素。得出如下结论：①2005—2017年物流联系强度增长经历了快速到缓慢的过程，物流功能疏解降低了北京的增速，河北省各城市增长显著，京津两城市物流联系强度占比虽持续降低，但物流联系量集中于京津两地的格局没有发生根本改变；②京津冀城市物流网络结构日趋复杂，京津两城市网络资源控制力下降，河北各城市网络参与度与资源控制力大幅提升，逐渐形成以北京、天津、石家庄为中心的多核心发展态势；③城市基础设施建设、对外开放水平和物流专业化程度是京津冀物流联系的持续驱动，研究期内京津冀城市物流联系的驱动力由基础设施及物流专业化建设驱动，向以外向型为主的工业化驱动转变，进而向以出口加内需消费的双驱动转换。

关键词: 物流联系, 时空演变, 驱动因素, 京津冀地区

Abstract:

Based on the Modified Gravity Model and Social Network Analysis, this paper analyzes the spatial and temporal pattern of the urban logistics links in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2005 to 2017. And an econometric model is constructed to quantitatively estimate the driving factors of the urban logistics links' strength. The results show that: (1) From 2005 to 2017, the growth of logistics connection intensity experienced a process from fast to slow. The growth rate in Beijing has slowed down because of the distribution of logistics functions, while cities in Hebei province increased significantly. Although the proportion of logistics connection intensity between Beijing and Tianjin continued to decrease, the pattern of logistics connection concentrated in Beijing and Tianjin did not change fundamentally. (2) The structure of the logistics network in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is becoming more and more complex, the control power of network resources in Beijing and Tianjin cities is declining, and the participation and control power of network resources in cities of Hebei are greatly enhanced, gradually forming a multi-core development trend with Beijing, Tianjin and Shijiazhuang as the center. (3) The construction of urban infrastructure, the level of opening to the outside and the degree of specialization of logistics are the continuous driving forces of logistics connection in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. During the research period, the driving force of the logistics connection in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is driven by the construction of urban infrastructure and the degree of specialization of logistics, which is transformed into the export-oriented industrialization, and then into the double driving force of export and domestic consumption.

Key words: logistics links, spatial-temporal evolution, driving factors, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

李会, 任启龙, 张春梅. 京津冀城市物流联系时空演变及驱动因素研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2022, 31(5): 1046-1056.

Hui LI, Qilong REN, Chunmei ZHANG. Study on the spatial-temporal evolution and driving factors of urban logistics links in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region[J]. World Regional Studies, 2022, 31(5): 1046-1056.

图/表 5

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评价目标	评价内容	对应指标/ 单位
物流业综合发展水平	城市发展环境	年末常住人口/万人人均GDP/元单位GDP能耗 / （吨标煤/万元）
	物流需求	社会消费品零售总额/亿元规模以上工业企业/个限额以上批发零售贸易业企业/个
	物流规模	公路货运量/万吨交通运输、仓储和邮政业从业人员/万人交通运输、仓储和邮政业增加值/亿元
	信息化水平	移动电话年末用户数/万户国际互联网数/万户
	物流发展基础	境内公路网密度 /（公里/平方公里）物流业建设投资/亿元

评价目标	评价内容	对应指标/ 单位
物流业综合发展水平	城市发展环境	年末常住人口/万人人均GDP/元单位GDP能耗 / （吨标煤/万元）
	物流需求	社会消费品零售总额/亿元规模以上工业企业/个限额以上批发零售贸易业企业/个
	物流规模	公路货运量/万吨交通运输、仓储和邮政业从业人员/万人交通运输、仓储和邮政业增加值/亿元
	信息化水平	移动电话年末用户数/万户国际互联网数/万户
	物流发展基础	境内公路网密度 /（公里/平方公里）物流业建设投资/亿元

城市	2005年		2010年		2017年
城市	辐射影响	接受影响	辐射影响	接受影响	辐射影响	接受影响
北京	4009.70	889.68	8576.45	2242.22	12291.22	3208.80
天津	1659.00	1905.03	4244.12	3881.30	6333.09	4768.44
石家庄	369.17	540.02	908.61	1225.62	2052.06	1759.14
唐山	431.21	762.41	1475.88	1896.91	1787.41	2528.95
秦皇岛	58.62	222.59	151.30	537.85	269.77	1401.25
邯郸	174.27	264.25	558.11	686.40	800.05	1433.72
邢台	96.19	271.92	289.18	721.28	777.26	1624.60
保定	241.26	613.51	674.63	1438.85	990.44	2600.34
张家口	43.40	191.55	118.95	445.92	412.15	753.86
承德	20.50	151.17	96.99	475.31	383.12	673.62
沧州	211.29	643.67	840.56	1806.42	958.75	2770.40
廊坊	63.46	729.31	407.55	2504.75	1737.97	4643.98
衡水	50.52	243.48	151.36	630.87	702.08	1328.25

城市	2005年		2010年		2017年
城市	辐射影响	接受影响	辐射影响	接受影响	辐射影响	接受影响
北京	4009.70	889.68	8576.45	2242.22	12291.22	3208.80
天津	1659.00	1905.03	4244.12	3881.30	6333.09	4768.44
石家庄	369.17	540.02	908.61	1225.62	2052.06	1759.14
唐山	431.21	762.41	1475.88	1896.91	1787.41	2528.95
秦皇岛	58.62	222.59	151.30	537.85	269.77	1401.25
邯郸	174.27	264.25	558.11	686.40	800.05	1433.72
邢台	96.19	271.92	289.18	721.28	777.26	1624.60
保定	241.26	613.51	674.63	1438.85	990.44	2600.34
张家口	43.40	191.55	118.95	445.92	412.15	753.86
承德	20.50	151.17	96.99	475.31	383.12	673.62
沧州	211.29	643.67	840.56	1806.42	958.75	2770.40
廊坊	63.46	729.31	407.55	2504.75	1737.97	4643.98
衡水	50.52	243.48	151.36	630.87	702.08	1328.25

城市	度数中心度			接近中心度			中间中心度
城市	2005年	2010年	2017年	2005年	2010年	2017年	2005年	2010年	2017年
北京	100.000	100.000	100.000	100.000	100.000	100.000	73.485	23.788	7.175
天津	58.333	100.000	100.000	70.588	100.000	100.000	10.606	23.788	7.175
石家庄	33.333	66.667	83.333	60.000	75.000	85.714	1.515	4.798	1.898
唐山	16.667	66.667	100.000	54.545	75.000	100.000	0.000	4.848	7.175
秦皇岛	16.667	25.000	58.333	54.545	57.143	70.588	0.000	0.000	1.389
邯郸	16.667	33.333	75.000	54.545	60.000	80.000	0.000	0.000	0.433
邢台	25.000	33.333	66.667	57.143	60.000	75.000	0.758	0.000	0.000
保定	25.000	50.000	75.000	57.143	66.667	80.000	0.000	0.303	0.433
张家口	8.333	16.667	50.000	52.174	54.545	66.667	0.000	0.000	0.253
承德	8.333	25.000	33.333	52.174	57.143	60.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
沧州	16.667	58.333	91.667	54.545	70.588	92.308	0.000	1.566	3.514
廊坊	16.667	41.667	66.667	54.545	63.158	75.000	0.000	0.000	0.859
衡水	8.333	33.333	66.667	52.174	60.000	75.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
平均值	26.923	50.000	74.359	59.548	69.173	81.560	6.643	4.545	2.331