南美洲恐怖袭击事件时空演变研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2021.01.2019304

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

采用核密度估计法和重心分析对1970—2017年南美洲恐怖袭击事件时空演变过程进行了分析。结果表明：1980—1999年是南美洲恐怖袭击事件的高发期；南美洲恐怖袭击事件空间分异显著，1970—1979年主要集中于哥伦比亚和阿根廷，高发期主要集中分布于哥伦比亚、秘鲁、智利，2000年以来主要集中分布于哥伦比亚，近年委内瑞拉、巴拉圭的恐怖袭击活动也有抬头之势。南美洲恐怖袭击事件的时空演变是由地理环境、地缘政治博弈、经济社会环境、毒品贸易、政府的应对策略和社会控制体系、武器易获得、边界管控等多因素综合作用的结果。基于上述结论和维护中国在南美洲利益的需要，提出中国应加强与南美洲国家的反恐合作。受南美洲恐怖袭击活动有跨境渗透现象且呈现“毒恐合流”现象的启示，认为中国应警惕东南亚恐怖袭击活动是否会向境内渗透并向“毒恐合流”方向发展。

关键词: 恐怖袭击事件, 南美洲, 时空演变, “毒恐同流”

Abstract:

The spatial-temporal evolution of the 1970-2017 South American terrorist attacks was analyzed by using Kernel Density Estimation and gravity center analysis methods. The results show that: the years 1980-1989 and 1990-1999, were the periods of the high incidence of terrorist attacks in South America; the difference in spatial distribution of South American terrorist attacks was significant. From 1970-1979, they were mainly concentrated in Colombia and Argentina, while the high incidence was mainly concentrated in Colombia, Peru and Chile. Since 2000, it has been mainly concentrated in Colombia. In recent years, terrorist attacks in Venezuela and Paraguay have also risen. The spatio-temporal evolution of terrorist attacks in South America is the result of multiple factors including geographical environment, geopolitical, economic and social environment, drug trade, government's coping strategies and social control system, easy access to weapons, border control, etc. Based on the above conclusions and the need to safeguard China's interests in South America, This study suggests that China should strengthen its counter-terrorism cooperation with South American countries. Inspired by the cross-border infiltration of South American terrorist attacks and the phenomenon of "Terrorism and Drug Combined", This study suggests that China should be alert to the infiltration of terrorist attacks in Southeast Asia and the possibility of the "Terrorism and Drug Combined".

Key words: terrorist attacks, South America, spatial-temporal evolution, "Terrorism and Drug Combined"

申玉坤, 骆华松, 洪菊花, 张路. 南美洲恐怖袭击事件时空演变研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2021, 30(1): 12-24.

Yukun SHEN, Huasong LUO, Juhua HONG, Lu ZHANG. Study on spatio-temporal evolution of terrorist attacks in South America[J]. World Regional Studies, 2021, 30(1): 12-24.

图/表 8

图1 1970—2017年南美洲恐怖袭击事件次数及伤亡人数

Fig.1 The evolution of the number of terrorist attacks and casualties in South America，1970-2017

图2 1970—2017年南美洲恐怖袭击事件空间分布密度特征

Fig.2 The characteristics of spatial density distribution of terrorist attacks in South America, 1970-2017

图3 1970—1979年南美洲恐怖袭击事件主要分布国家

Fig.3 The countries with the main distribution of terrorist attacks in South America, 1970-2017

图4 1980—1999年南美洲恐怖袭击事件主要分布国家

Fig. 4 The countries with the main distribution of terrorist attacks in South America,1980-1999

图5 2000—2017年南美洲恐怖袭击事件主要分布国家

Fig. 5 The countries with the main distribution of terrorist attacks in South America from 2000 to 2017

表1 南美洲主要极端组织跨境活动范围

Tab.1 The range of cross-border activities of major extremist organizations in South America

极端组织	所在国家	跨境活动范围
哥伦比亚民族解放军	哥伦比亚	委内瑞拉
哥伦比亚革命武装力量	哥伦比亚	巴西、委内瑞拉、厄瓜多尔、秘鲁
哥伦比亚联合自卫力量	哥伦比亚	厄瓜多尔
M19	哥伦比亚	巴西、智利、委内瑞拉、厄瓜多尔、秘鲁
光辉道路	秘鲁	阿根廷、玻利维亚、巴西、哥伦比亚
图帕克·阿马鲁革命运动组织	秘鲁	玻利维亚、智利、哥伦比亚
曼努埃尔·罗德里格斯爱国阵线	智利	秘鲁

图6 1970—2017年南美洲恐怖袭击事件分布重心演变过程

Fig.6 The evolution of the gravity center of terrorist attacks in South America from 1970 to 2017

图7 1980—2017年南美国家各时段内年均失业率

Fig.7 Average annual unemployment rate in South American countries during the period from 1980 to 2017

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