甘肃省县域农村贫困的空间演化分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2020.03.2019045

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

贫困地区的空间识别是精准扶贫政策制定的重要依据。运用变异系数、泰尔指数、马尔科夫链和探索性空间分析方法对甘肃省1984~2015年86个县（市、区）域农村贫困指数差异的空间演化过程及其特征进行了实证分析。研究表明：甘肃省县域农村贫困指数差异总体下降，并表现出“缩小—扩大—缩小”的阶段性特征，演化过程趋于稳定；同时，甘肃省农村贫困存在空间集聚现象，呈现出集中分布和稳定性特征。其中，河西走廊地区和兰州地区的部分县域农村贫困程度较低，存在空间集聚现象，且集聚范围不断延伸；定西市、陇南市、甘南州、临夏州等地区县域农村贫困程度较深，也表现出较强的空间集聚现象，但集聚范围在不断缩小，且显现出碎片化特征。

关键词: 农村贫困, 空间演化, 甘肃省, 县域

Abstract:

Space identification in poverty-stricken areas is an important basis for the formulation of accurate poverty alleviation policy. The spatial evolution process and characteristics of rural poverty index in 86 counties (cities and districts) were studied by using the variation coefficient, the Tel index, the Markov chain and the exploratory spatial analysis method from 1984 to 2015. The result shows that the difference of rural poverty index in the county of Gansu province presents the stage characteristics of "narrowing - enlarging - narrowing" in the trend of overall decline, and there are obvious differences in its spatial distribution, and the process of evolution tends to be stable. And the rural poverty in Gansu province has a spatial clustering image, showing a special distribution and stability. The poor degree of rural poverty in the Hexi Corridor and some counties in Lanzhou area is low, and there is a stable spatial agglomeration phenomenon, and the agglomeration range is extended continuously. The degree of poverty in rural areas of Dingxi, Longnan, Gannan and Linxia is relatively deep, and it also shows a strong spatial agglomeration phenomenon, however, the agglomeration range is very strong but shrinking and it is showing a fragmented characteristics.

Key words: rural poverty, spatial evolution, Gansu Province, county

张永凯, 杨万宝, 李登科. 甘肃省县域农村贫困的空间演化分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2020, 29(3): 631-641.

Yongkai ZHANG, Wanbao YANG, Dengke LI. Analysis on the spatial evolution of rural poverty in counties of Gansu Province[J]. World Regional Studies, 2020, 29(3): 631-641.

图/表 7

图1 2017年甘肃省贫困县分布图

Fig.1 Distribution map of poverty-stricken counties in Gansu Province in 2017

图2 2017年甘肃省深度贫困县分布图

Fig.2 Distribution map of deep poverty counties in Gansu Province in 2017

图3 1984~2015年甘肃省农村贫困指数的变异系数和泰尔指数

Fig.3 Coefficient of variation and Theil Index of rural poverty index in Gansu Province from 1984 to 2015

表1 1985~2015年甘肃省县域农村贫困指数的马尔科夫矩阵

Tab.1 Markov Matrix of rural poverty index in Gansu Province from 1985 to 2015

t_l/t_l+1	低水平	中低水平	中高水平	高水平
低水平	0.9	0	0.1	0
中低水平	0.1	0.55	0.35	0
中高水平	0	0.086	0.743	0.171
高水平	0	0.083	0.417	0.5

图4 甘肃省县域农村贫困类型演化的空间格局

Fig.4 Spatial pattern of rural poverty type evolution in Gansu Province

表2 1984~2015年甘肃省县域农村贫困的全局Moran’s I指数

Tab.2 Moran’s I Index of rural poverty in Gansu Province from 1984 to 2015

年份	Moran's I	Z（I）	P	年份	Moran's I	Z（I）
1985	0.6788	10.2718	0.0000	2001	0.6674	10.0833
1987	0.6485	9.7925	0.0000	2003	0.6894	10.3995
1989	0.6970	10.5247	0.0000	2005	0.6895	10.3948
1991	0.6003	9.1079	0.0001	2007	0.7191	10.8290
1993	0.6274	9.5208	0.0000	2009	0.7122	10.7391
1995	0.6418	9.7259	0.0000	2011	0.6780	10.2302
1997	0.6908	10.4522	0.0000	2013	0.6841	10.3223
1999	0.6826	10.3401	0.0000	2015	0.7055	10.6291

图5 1985、1995、2005、2015年甘肃省县域农村贫困指数的Lisa集散图

Fig.5 Lisa distribution chart of rural poverty index of Gansu Province in 1985, 1995, 2005 and 2015

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