Abstract: China faces the most complex geopolitical environment, how to forecast the changing trends in geopolitical environment, service as China’s rising, which is an important issue to be answered urgently. However, geopolitical environment is uncertain, which is difficult to manage to use the simplified theories and quantitative methods. Under this background, this article attempts to introduce scenario analytical method to explain its applicability in geopolitical environment. Firstly, the article explains scenario analytical practiced functions in dealing with geopolitical environmental uncertainty and improving the disadvantages on forecast and explanation of the simplified theories. And then, the paper analyzes the driving factors of geopolitical environment change, namely under power shift, geopolitical actors take geopolitical imagination to make geopolitical practice so as to transform geopolitical status. Finally, using scenario analytical method analyzes China’s neighborhood geopolitical environment change. Potential emerged scenarios show as follows:1) four common scenarios, such as two superpowers competition and cooperation between China and U.S.A, five great powers game(China, America, Russia, Japan and India),some countries get double-interests between China and other great powers, Vietnam, Republic of the Philippines and North Korea flaunt their superiority.2) third emergency scenarios, namely territory disputes moves territory war, America and South Korea attach South Korea unclear test with military, Korean peninsula war triggers great powers conflict.3)building jointly“One Belt and One Road”to create“Community of Human Destiny”with Chinese neighboring countries.

摘要： 地缘政治环境具有不确定性，难以用简约化理论和量化手段来应对，故尝试运用情景分析法来阐释其在地缘政治环境中的适用性。情景分析法是一种对未来可能出现的多种状况进行描述的方法，具有应对地缘政治环境的不确定性和弥补简约化理论解释和预测能力不足的功能。基于地缘政治想象，地缘政治行为主体进行的地缘政治实践改变了既有地缘政治状态的结果，从而引起地缘政治环境的变化。以此为背景将情景分析法应用于分析中国周边地缘政治环境，预测可能会出现中美竞合、中美俄日印五强博弈、部分周边国家游离于大国间、朝越菲等弱国逞强等四种常规情景和领土争端引发领土战争、美国军事手段消除朝鲜核威慑、朝鲜半岛冲突引发大国对抗等三种突发情景以及“一带一路”倡议下的周边命运共同体情景。