An investigation in the typical counties of Anhui

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2020.01.2018416

Abstract

Abstract:

Urbanization is the essence of human urbanization, human urbanization is to realize the transformation from farmer to citizen, and the county is the most important spatial carrier to realize the transformation from farmer to citizen and human urbanization. As a typical case, wuhu county in Anhui province and Linquan county in Anhui province in northern Anhui province were selected to analyze the influence mechanism of local urbanization in theory, and to construct the dual model of local urbanization in county by empirical comparison. The results show that:overall, the urbanization willingness of farmers in typical counties in the central region was relatively strong(75.01%). Individual characteristic factors, family factors and social factors all have a very significant impact on in situ urbanization; the education level, the total annual income of families, school-age children, government employment policies and education policies have a significant positive effect on the farmers' willingness to in situ urbanization. In addition, the length of work and the social relations in the city also have a positive impact on the farmers' willingness to in situ urbanization, but the degree of significance is relatively low; the social security system of farmer's age and household registration has a significant negative impact on the farmers' willingness to in situ urbanization.Policy suggestions are put forward to promote local urbanization in counties from such aspects as increasing employment in cities and towns, developing vocational education and training, deepening social security system and strengthening community governance system.

Key words: farmers’ urbanization, willing, influence factors, Anhui, county

摘要：

城镇化本质是“人”的城镇化，“人”的城镇化关键是实现由农民向市民的转化。首先，本文从理论上构建出农民城镇化意愿的二元logistic模型；其次，选取我国中部地区安徽皖南芜湖县、皖北临泉县作为典型案例地进行实证对比研究。结果表明：①总体上，典型县域农民城镇化意愿相对较强烈（75.01%）；②个体特征因素、家庭因素及社会因素均对安徽典型县域农民城镇化具有十分显著影响，其中受教育程度、家庭年总收入、学龄儿童、政府就业政策及教育政策等对农民城镇化意愿产生显著正向效应；务工年限、城里社会关系等也对农民城镇化意愿产生正向影响，但显著性程度相对不高；而农民年龄、户籍社保制度对农民城镇化意愿产生显著负向影响。③最后，从增加城镇就业岗位、开展职业教育培训、深化改革社保制度及加强社区治理体系建设等方面提出促进农民城镇化发展的政策建议。

关键词: 农民城镇化, 意愿, 影响因素, 安徽, 县域

Rongtian ZHANG, Chuanwu LI. An investigation in the typical counties of Anhui[J]. World Regional Studies, 2020, 29(1): 112-119.

张荣天, 李传武. 中部地区农民城镇化意愿及其影响因素研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2020, 29(1): 112-119.

Figures/Tables 5

References 21

1	王洋,方创琳.中国县域城镇化水平的综合评价及类型区划分.地理研究,2012,31(7):1305-1316.
	Wang Y, Fang C. The study on comprehensive evaluation and urbanization division at county level in China.Geographical Research,2012,31(7):1305-1316.
2	托达罗.第三世界的经济发展.北京:中国人民大学出版社,1988.
	Todaro. Economic Development in the Third World.Beijing: China Renmin University Press,1988.
3	Fabiane R F. Aging and urbanization: the neighborhood perception and functional performance of elderly persons in Belo Horizonte Metropolitan Area-Brazil.Journal of Urban Health,2009,1:54-66.
4	Qadeer M A. Urbanization by implosion.Habitat International,2004,28(1):1-12
5	王洋.内陆地区就地城镇化的路径选择——基于河南与江苏的比较研究.上海：复旦大学,2014.
	Wang Y. The path choice of in-situ urbanization in Inland Areas——a comparative study between Henan and Jiangsu. Shanghai：Dissertation of Fudan University,2014.
6	Mullan K P. Land tenure arrangements and Rural-Urban migration in China. World Development, 2011,1:123-133.
7	夏永久,储金龙.基于代际比较视角的农民城镇化意愿及影响因素——来自皖北的实证.城市发展研究, 2014,9:12-17.
	Xia Y, Chu J. An Inter-generation comparison of peasants' willingness towards urbanization and influencing factors: evidence from northern Anhui province.Urban Development Studies,2014,9:12-17.
8	罗震东,韦江绿,张京祥,等.高度城镇化地区乡村居民的城镇化意愿研究——基于常州市区的调查.上海城市规划,2014,3:35-43.
	Luo Z, Wei J, Zhang J, et al. Urbanization desire of rural inhabitant in highly urbanized area: based on the investigation of urban area of Changzhou city.Shanghai Urban Planning,2014,3:35-43.
9	蔡洁,夏显力.农业转移人口就近城镇化:个体响应与政策意蕴——基于陕西省2055个调查样本的实证分析.农业技术经济,2016,10:29-36.
	Cai J, Xia X. Urbanization of agricultural transfer population nearby: individual response and policy implications—An empirical analysis based on 2055 survey samples in Shaanxi province.Agricultural Technology Economy,2016,10:29-36.
10	周小刚,陈东有,刘百顺.农民市民化问题研究综述.经济纵横,2009,9:122-125.
	Zhou X, Chen D, Liu B. A summary of the research on the citizenization of farmers. Economic Review,2009,9:122-125.
11	黄雁鸿,韩朝晖.关于新型城镇化进程中农村人口转移意愿的调研及思考——以连云港市为例.江苏城市规划,2013,9:4-6.
	Huang Y, Han C. Research and thinking on the willingness of rural population transfer in the process of new urbanization——a case study of Lianyungang city.Jiangsu Urban Planning,2013,9:4-6.
12	黄文秀,杨卫忠,钱方明.农户“就地城镇化”选择的影响因素研究.浙江社会科学,2015,1:86-97.
	Huang W, Yang W, Qian F.Identification of key factors influencing the choice of farmers facing in situ urbanization. Zhejiang Social Sciences,2015,1:86-97.
13	黄锟.农村土地制度对新生代农民工市民化的影响与制度创新.农业现代化研究,2011,32(2):196-199.
	Huang K. Influence on new-generation migrant workers citizenization from rural land system and institutional innovations.Research of Agricultural Modernization,2011,32(2):196-199.
14	陈占锋.我国城镇化进程中失地农民生活满意度研究.国家行政学院学报,2013,1:55-62.
	Chen Z. A study on life satisfaction of landless farmers in the process of urbanization in China.Journal of State Administration College,2013,1:55-62.
15	徐丽,张红丽.农户就地城镇化的影响因素及其福利影响——基于四省农户微观数据的实证分析.社会科学家,2016,6:72-77.
	Xu L, Zhang H. The influencing factors of farmers' on-the-spot urbanization and its welfare impact——an empirical analysis based on the micro data of farmers in four provinces.Social Scientist, 2016,6:72-77.
16	白先春,柯婧,李一忱.农村居民个体特征对其就地城镇化意愿的影响——基于安徽省的调查.江苏农业科学,2016,44(12):631-635.
	Bai X, Ke J, Li Y. The influence of individual characteristics of rural residents on their willingness to urbanization on the spot—based on the survey of Anhui province.Jiangsu Agricultural Sciences,2016,44(12):631-635.
17	陈轶,刘涛,李子豪,等.大城市边缘区居村农民就地城镇化意愿影响因素——以南京江北新区为例.地域研究与开发,2018,37(6):70-75.
	Chen Y, Liu T, Li Z, et al. Influencing factors of local farmers’ willingness of in situ urbanization in metropolitan fringe: taking nanjing jiangbei new district as an example.Areal Research And Development,2018,37(6):70-75.
18	虞小强.城镇化进程中农民进城行为研究. 杨凌：西北农林科技大学,2012.
	Yu X. Behavior of farmers into the city in the urbanization. Yangling：Dissertation of Northwest A&F University,2012.
19	翁计传,闫小培.中山市农村就地城市化特征和动力机制研究.世界地理研究,2011,20(2):76-83.
	Weng J, Yan X. Typical characteristic and power mechanism of rural in situ urbanization in zhongshan city.World Regional Studies,2011,20(2):76-83.
20	李健,杨传开,宁越敏.新型城镇化背景下的就地城镇化发展机制与路径.学术月刊,2016,48(7):89-98.
	Li J, Yang C, Ning Y. The study on mechanism and paths of in-situ urbanization. Academic Monthly,2016,48(7):89-98.
21	左巧梅.农业转移人口就近城镇化影响因素研究.杭州：浙江工业大学,2017.
	Zuo Q. Research on the factors influencing the in-situ urbanization of agricultural transfer population. Hangzhou: Dissertation of Zhejiang University of Technology,2017

意愿分析	人数	比例/%
愿意	1489	75.01
不愿意	496	24.99
总计	1985	100.00

意愿分析	人数	比例/%
愿意	1489	75.01
不愿意	496	24.99
总计	1985	100.00

	影响因素	选择人次/人	所占比例/%
促进因素	获取更多的工作就业机会	1708	21.36
	城里的生活环境条件更好	1553	19.42
	城里拥有更好的教育资源	1427	17.85
	来往城镇上班交通的不便	1267	15.85
	实现个人价值及体现地位	1008	12.61
	周围人都纷纷去城镇买房	992	12.41
阻碍因素	现在的收入不错、生活稳定	1622	20.01
	习惯了家里环境及生活方式	1503	18.53
	城市房价太贵、生活成本高	1449	17.86
	城市找工作难且无社会保障	1367	16.85
	城里空气质量不好及环境差	1186	14.62
	普通话不好怕沟通存在障碍	985	12.14

	影响因素	选择人次/人	所占比例/%
促进因素	获取更多的工作就业机会	1708	21.36
	城里的生活环境条件更好	1553	19.42
	城里拥有更好的教育资源	1427	17.85
	来往城镇上班交通的不便	1267	15.85
	实现个人价值及体现地位	1008	12.61
	周围人都纷纷去城镇买房	992	12.41
阻碍因素	现在的收入不错、生活稳定	1622	20.01
	习惯了家里环境及生活方式	1503	18.53
	城市房价太贵、生活成本高	1449	17.86
	城市找工作难且无社会保障	1367	16.85
	城里空气质量不好及环境差	1186	14.62
	普通话不好怕沟通存在障碍	985	12.14

变量类型	模型变量	变量定义	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
被解释变量	愿意迁移	是=1，否=0	0.65	0.43	0	1
解释变量：1个体因素变量	农民年龄	29及以下=1，30~39=2，40~49=3，50及以上=4	2.61	1.12	1	4
	受教育程度	小学及以下=1，初中=2，高中或中专=3，大专及以上学历=4	2.62	1.08	1	4
	务工年限	1年以内=1，2~4年=2， 5~7年=3，8年以上=4	2.58	1.03	1	4
解释变量：2家庭因素变量	学龄儿童	没有=0，有=1	0.67	0.35	0	1
	家庭年收入	1万以下=1，1~3万=2，3~5万=3，5万以上=4	2.55	1.24	1	4
	城里社会关系	没有关系=0，有关系=1	0.58	0.39	0	1
解释变量：3社会因素变量	户籍社保制度	不了解=1，了解一点=2，了解=3	1.56	0.72	1	3
	政府就业政策	不了解=1，了解一点=2，了解=3	1.62	0.85	1	3
	政府教育政策	不了解=1，了解一点=2，了解=3	1.53	0.59	1	3