Research on the center of gravity coupling and interactive response between tourism economic efficiency and regional economic level in Western Provinces

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2022.02.2020468

Abstract

Abstract:

Tourism is an important driving force for the development of western regional economy in the context of the new round of western development. Based on this, it integrates the non-radial super-efficiency DEA model, integrated linear weighting method, non-parametric Kernel kernel density estimation, center of gravity model, center of gravity coupling model and VAR model to analyze the center of gravity coupling and interactive response of tourism economic efficiency and regional economic level. Results show that: (1) both tourism economic efficiency and regional economic level in western China are at a low level, the former has experienced the evolution from Sichuan-Guizhou-Chongqing triple core to Yunnan-Guizhou;(2) Shape of the tourism economic efficiency nuclear density curve develops from relatively smooth to steep, while the regional economic level is relatively stable, and the former is more severe polarization; (3) Tourism economic efficiency and the regional economic level move in the biggest direction of the center of gravity, respectively, "south to the west " and "south east", both showing a "northwest"-"southeast" polarization pattern, polarization direction respectively by 3.41°,1.41°; (4) The spatial overlap values evolve in a U pattern, with the center of gravity coupling first "optimized" and then "degraded"; (5)The impulse responses are mostly smooth, and the responses are mostly concentrated in the first 3-4 periods, and variance contribution of regional economic level to tourism economic efficiency is low, while the variance contribution of tourism economic efficiency to regional economic level is high.

Key words: tourism economic efficiency, regional economic level, center of gravity transfe, center of gravity coupling, interactive response

摘要：

在新一轮西部大开发背景下，旅游业是推动西部区域经济发展的重要动力。基于此，文章综合运用非径向超效率DEA模型、综合线性加权法、非参数Kernel核密度估计、重心模型、重心耦合模型以及VAR模型等方法分析旅游经济效率与区域经济水平的重心耦合与互动响应。研究结果表明：（1）西部旅游经济效率与区域经济水平均处于较低水平，前者经历了从“川-黔-渝”三核到“滇-黔”双核的演变，后者则始终以四川为唯一增长极；（2）旅游经济效率核密度曲线形状从相对平稳发展为陡峭，区域经济水平则相对稳定，前者两极化态势更为严峻；（3）旅游经济效率与区域经济水平重心迁移距离最大方向分别为“南偏西”和“南偏东”，均呈现“西北-东南”极化格局，极化方向分别以顺时针转动了3.41°和1.41°；（4）空间重叠性数值呈“U”型演化，重心耦合态势先“优化”后“劣化”；（5）脉冲响应多呈平滑型响应，响应多集中在前3~4期，区域经济水平对旅游经济效率的方差贡献度较低，旅游经济效率对区域经济水平的方差贡献度较高。

关键词: 旅游经济效率, 区域经济水平, 重心迁移, 重心耦合, 互动响应

Boming ZHENG, Qingzhong MING, Anle LIU, Xuan ZHANG. Research on the center of gravity coupling and interactive response between tourism economic efficiency and regional economic level in Western Provinces[J]. World Regional Studies, 2022, 31(2): 350-362.

郑伯铭, 明庆忠, 刘安乐, 张宣. 西部省区旅游经济效率与区域经济水平的重心耦合及互动响应研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2022, 31(2): 350-362.

Figures/Tables 12

References 23

1	ASHRAFI A, SEOW H, LAI S, et al.The efficiency of the hotel industry in Singapore.Tourism Management,2013,37(3):31-34.
2	胡宇娜,梅林,魏建国.中国酒店业效率的时空演变及驱动机制.世界地理研究,2017,26(3):114-123.
	HU Y, MEI L, WEI J.Industry efficiency of China's hotels:Time-space evolution and driving mechanism.World Regional Studies,2017,26(3):114-123.
3	PREDA P, WATTS T. Improving the efficiency of sporting venues through capacity management: The case of the Sydney (Australia) cricket ground trust. Event Management,2003,8(2):83-89.
4	王慧.东北旅游景区效率的时空差异分析与路径选择——基于优质旅游有效供给.社会科学家,2019(12):70-76.
	WANG H.An analysis of the spatial-temporal differences in the efficiency and improvement path of northeast tourist attractions based on the effective supply of high-quality tourism.Social Scientist,2019(12):70-76.
5	FUENTES R. Efficiency of travel agencies: A case study of Alicante, Spain. Tourism Management,2011,32(1):75-87.
6	胡宇娜,梅林,魏建国.基于GWR模型的中国区域旅行社业效率空间分异及动力机制分析.地理科学,2018,38(1):107-113.
	HU Y, MEI L, WEI J.Spatial differentiation and dynamic mechanism of regional travel agency efficiency in China based on GWR model.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2018,38(1):107-113
7	FERNANGES E, PACHECO R. Efficient use of airport capacity.Transportation Research A:Policy and Practice,2002,36(3):225-238.
8	周骁,李江风,姚尧,等.贵州省旅游效率时空演变及影响因素分析.地域研究与开发,2020,39(2):88-93.
	ZHOU X, LI J, YAO Y,et al.Spatial-temporal evolution and influencing factors of tourism efficiency in Guizhou province.Areal Research and Development,2020,39(2):88-93.
9	唐睿,冯学钢.中国入境旅游效率测算及影响因素——基于"一带一路"沿线国家随机前沿引力模型的实证.经济问题探索,2018(7):60-67.
	TANG R, FENG X.The measurement of inbound tourism efficiency and its influencing factors in China——The empirical study on the stochastic frontier gravity model of countries along the One Belt And One Road.Inquiry into Economic Issues,2018(7):60-67.
10	郭向阳,穆学青,明庆忠.边疆省域旅游效率空间分异及驱动因素——以云南省为例.世界地理研究,2020,29(2):416-427.
	GUO X, MU X, MING Q.Spatial differences and driving factors of tourism efficiency in border regions——A case of Yunnan Province.World Regional Studies,2020,29(2):416-427.
11	曹芳东,黄震方,徐敏.风景名胜区旅游效率及其分解效率的时空格局与影响因素——基于Bootstrap-DEA模型的分析方法.地理研究,2015,34(12):2395-2408.
	CAO F, HANG Z, XU M.Spatial-temporal pattern and influencing factors of tourism efficiency and the decomposition efficiency in Chinese scenic areas:Based on the Bootstrap-DEA method.Geographical Research,2015,34 (12):2395-2408.
12	马茹,罗晖,王宏伟,等.中国区域经济高质量发展评价指标体系及测度研究.中国软科学,2019(7):60-67.
	MA R, LUO H, WANG H,et al.Study of evaluating High-quality economic development in Chinese regions.China Soft Science,2019(7):60-67.
13	于婷婷,左冰,宋玉祥,等.中国旅游业发展对区域经济效率的影响——基于中国283个地级市的实证证据.地理研究,2020,39(6):1357-1369.
	YU T, ZUO B, SONG Y,et al.The influence of tourism development on regional economic efficiency:Evidence from 283 prefecture-level cities in China.Geographical Research,2020,39(6):1357-1369.
14	张芷若,谷国锋.中国科技金融与区域经济发展的耦合关系研究.地理科学,2020,40(5):751-759.
	ZHANG Z, GU G.Research on the coupling relationship between Chinese technology finance and regional economic development.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2020,40(5):751-759.
15	刘晓娥,康艳芳,王立.河南省区域经济发展比较的因子分析.统计与决策,2010(5):119-121.
	LIU X, KANG Y, WANG L.Factor analysis of the comparison of regional economic development in Henan Province.Statistics & Decision,2010(5):119-121.
16	王胜鹏,乔花芳,冯娟,等.黄河流域旅游生态效率时空演化及其与旅游经济互动响应.经济地理,2020,40(5):81-89.
	WANG S, QIAO H, FENG J,et al.The spatio-temporal evolution of tourism eco-efficiency in the Yellow River basin and its interactive response with tourism economy development level.Economic Geography,2020,40(5):81-89.
17	赵文亮,陈文峰,孟德友.中原经济区经济发展水平综合评价及时空格局演变.经济地理,2011,31(10):1585-1591.
	ZHAO W, CHEN W, MENG D.Comprehensive evaluation of the economic development level of the central plains economic zone and the evolution of Spatial-temporal pattern.Economic Geography,2011,31(10):1585-1591.
18	轩源,周年兴,杨虹霓.耦合协调视角下旅游效率与经济发展水平的时空格局演变——以江苏省为例.南京师大学报(自然科学版),2020,43(2):70-77.
	XUAN Y, ZHOU N, YANG H.The spatio-temporal pattern evolution of eourism efficiency and economic development level from the perspective of coupling coordination—A case study of Jiangsu Province.Journal of Nanjing Normal University(Natural Science Edition),2020,43(2):70-77.
19	杨萍,李陇堂,夏四友,等.我国旅游效率与经济发展水平协调关系研究.统计与决策,2019,35(7):127-131.
	YANG P, LI L, XIA S,et al.Research on the coordinated relationship between Chinese tourism efficiency and economic development level.Statistics & Decision,2019,35(7):127-131.
20	瞿华,刘荣荣.区域旅游竞争力评价与空间格局演化研究——以广东省21个地市为例.重庆大学学报(社会科学版),2019,9(6):1-18.
	QU H, LIU R.Study on regional tourism competitiveness evaluation and spatial pattern evolution:Taking Guangdong Province as an Example.Journal of Chongqing University(Social Science Edition),2019,9(6):1-18.
21	赵璐,赵作权.基于特征椭圆的中国经济空间分异研究.地理科学,2014,34(8):979-986.
	ZHAO L, ZHAO Z.Research on Chinese economic spatial differentiation based on feature ellipse.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2014,34(8):979-986.
22	包剑飞,张杜鹃.旅游产业与区域经济耦合协调度研究——以长江三角洲城市群为例.广西师范大学学报(自然科学版),2020,38(3):117-127.
	BAO J, ZHANG D.Research on the coupling degree of tourism industry and regional economy——Taking the Yangtze River Delta city group as an example.Journal of Guangxi Normal University(Natural Science Edition),2020,38(3):117-127.
23	王兆峰,刘庆芳.长江经济带旅游生态效率时空演变及其与旅游经济互动响应.自然资源学报,2019,34(3):1945-1961.
	WANG Z, LIU Q.The spatio-temporal evolution of tourism eco-efficiency in the Yangtze River Economic Belt and its interactive response with tourism economy.Journal of Natural Resources,2019,34(3):1945-1961.

目标层	准则层	指标层
旅游经济效率	投入	旅游固定资产投资
		A级景区数量
		星级饭店数量
		旅行社数量
		旅游业从业人员数
	产出	旅游总收入
	产出	旅游接待总人数
区域经济水平	基础建设	公路通车里程
		固定资产投资总额
		邮电业务总量
	资金效应	国内生产总值
		地方财政一般预算内收入
		地方财政一般预算内支出
		人均 GDP
	经济贸易	货物进出口总额
	经济贸易	社会消费品零售总额
	就业与收入	区域就业总人数
		农村居民人均可支配收入
		城镇居民人均可支配收入

目标层	准则层	指标层
旅游经济效率	投入	旅游固定资产投资
		A级景区数量
		星级饭店数量
		旅行社数量
		旅游业从业人员数
	产出	旅游总收入
	产出	旅游接待总人数
区域经济水平	基础建设	公路通车里程
		固定资产投资总额
		邮电业务总量
	资金效应	国内生产总值
		地方财政一般预算内收入
		地方财政一般预算内支出
		人均 GDP
	经济贸易	货物进出口总额
	经济贸易	社会消费品零售总额
	就业与收入	区域就业总人数
		农村居民人均可支配收入
		城镇居民人均可支配收入

地区	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	均值
内蒙古	0.51	0.42	0.41	0.40	0.44	0.44	0.48	0.40	0.37	0.43
广西	0.73	0.58	0.61	0.57	0.54	0.51	0.50	0.52	0.54	0.57
重庆	1.09	1.10	1.07	1.09	1.03	1.09	1.03	0.75	0.70	1.00
四川	1.11	1.04	1.10	1.02	1.08	1.10	1.12	0.67	0.56	0.98
贵州	1.33	1.45	1.25	1.36	1.27	1.37	1.50	1.76	1.86	1.46
云南	0.57	0.43	0.48	0.45	0.45	0.43	0.49	1.02	1.09	0.60
西藏	0.26	0.21	0.19	0.22	0.27	0.29	0.20	0.23	0.14	0.22
陕西	0.79	0.63	0.64	0.61	0.58	0.56	0.53	0.45	0.45	0.58
甘肃	0.21	0.25	0.27	0.29	0.31	0.34	0.30	0.30	0.29	0.28
青海	0.37	0.17	0.18	0.15	0.13	0.13	0.15	0.10	0.11	0.17
宁夏	0.25	0.19	0.18	0.16	0.16	0.15	0.12	0.13	0.13	0.16
新疆	0.21	0.18	0.18	0.19	0.15	0.20	0.20	0.23	0.23	0.20
均值	0.62	0.55	0.55	0.54	0.54	0.55	0.55	0.55	0.54	0.55
标准差	0.39	0.43	0.39	0.41	0.39	0.41	0.44	0.47	0.50	0.39
变异系数	0.63	0.77	0.72	0.75	0.73	0.75	0.79	0.86	0.93	0.63

地区	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	均值
内蒙古	0.51	0.42	0.41	0.40	0.44	0.44	0.48	0.40	0.37	0.43
广西	0.73	0.58	0.61	0.57	0.54	0.51	0.50	0.52	0.54	0.57
重庆	1.09	1.10	1.07	1.09	1.03	1.09	1.03	0.75	0.70	1.00
四川	1.11	1.04	1.10	1.02	1.08	1.10	1.12	0.67	0.56	0.98
贵州	1.33	1.45	1.25	1.36	1.27	1.37	1.50	1.76	1.86	1.46
云南	0.57	0.43	0.48	0.45	0.45	0.43	0.49	1.02	1.09	0.60
西藏	0.26	0.21	0.19	0.22	0.27	0.29	0.20	0.23	0.14	0.22
陕西	0.79	0.63	0.64	0.61	0.58	0.56	0.53	0.45	0.45	0.58
甘肃	0.21	0.25	0.27	0.29	0.31	0.34	0.30	0.30	0.29	0.28
青海	0.37	0.17	0.18	0.15	0.13	0.13	0.15	0.10	0.11	0.17
宁夏	0.25	0.19	0.18	0.16	0.16	0.15	0.12	0.13	0.13	0.16
新疆	0.21	0.18	0.18	0.19	0.15	0.20	0.20	0.23	0.23	0.20
均值	0.62	0.55	0.55	0.54	0.54	0.55	0.55	0.55	0.54	0.55
标准差	0.39	0.43	0.39	0.41	0.39	0.41	0.44	0.47	0.50	0.39
变异系数	0.63	0.77	0.72	0.75	0.73	0.75	0.79	0.86	0.93	0.63

地区	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	均值
内蒙古	0.59	0.54	0.56	0.56	0.57	0.53	0.52	0.51	0.49	0.54
广西	0.55	0.56	0.48	0.46	0.47	0.49	0.48	0.54	0.52	0.51
重庆	0.58	0.59	0.60	0.60	0.59	0.59	0.61	0.66	0.62	0.60
四川	0.92	0.93	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.88	0.91	0.92	0.89
贵州	0.23	0.25	0.26	0.27	0.29	0.30	0.31	0.35	0.35	0.29
云南	0.43	0.47	0.45	0.45	0.46	0.44	0.45	0.49	0.48	0.46
西藏	0.09	0.09	0.05	0.05	0.06	0.07	0.08	0.10	0.11	0.08
陕西	0.44	0.55	0.49	0.50	0.51	0.51	0.51	0.56	0.58	0.52
甘肃	0.20	0.20	0.19	0.19	0.19	0.19	0.19	0.18	0.17	0.19
青海	0.12	0.13	0.09	0.09	0.10	0.09	0.09	0.10	0.10	0.10
宁夏	0.16	0.17	0.12	0.12	0.13	0.12	0.13	0.15	0.13	0.14
新疆	0.39	0.40	0.33	0.33	0.34	0.33	0.33	0.37	0.33	0.35
均值	0.38	0.41	0.38	0.38	0.38	0.38	0.38	0.41	0.40	0.39
标准差	0.24	0.25	0.25	0.25	0.24	0.24	0.24	0.25	0.25	0.24
变异系数	0.63	0.61	0.66	0.65	0.63	0.63	0.63	0.61	0.62	0.63