主管单位：中国科学技术协会
主办单位：中国地理学会
承办单位：华东师范大学
World Regional Studies

World Regional Studies ›› 2022, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (3): 549-560.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2022.03.2020425

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Evaluation and prediction of water resource carrying capacity in eco-economic zone of Yellow River Delta

Xixi ZHANG1,2(), Zhengxu CAO1(), Renjie ZHANG3, Yuangang HAN4, Xuan LI5   

  1. 1.a Management College, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
    2.b Institute of Marine Development, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, Beijing 100048, China
    3.China Aerospace Academy of Systems Science and Engineering, , Beijing 100048, China
    4.Northeast Asian Studies College, Jilin University, Changchun 130015, China
    5.Management College, ShandongUniversity of Technology, Zibo 255000, China
  • Received:2020-07-05 Revised:2020-11-05 Online:2022-05-15 Published:2022-05-17
  • Contact: Zhengxu CAO

黄河三角洲生态经济区水资源承载力评价及趋势预测

张樨樨1,2(), 曹正旭1(), 张仁杰3, 韩沅刚4, 李旋5   

  1. 1.中国海洋大学，管理学院，青岛 266100
    2.中国海洋大学，海洋发展研究院，青岛 266100
    3.中国航天系统科学与工程研究院，北京 100048
    4.吉林大学东北亚研究院，长春 130015
    5.山东理工大学管理学院，淄博 255000
  • 通讯作者: 曹正旭
  • 作者简介:张樨樨（1980-），女，教授，博士，主要研究方向为区域资源与环境，E-mail：zhangxixiouc@126.com。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金后期资助项目(21FGLB021);中国海洋大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项项目(202115001)

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Abstract:

The carrying capacity of water resources reflects the supporting capacity of regional water resources for economic and social development, and is an important index to measure the harmonious development of water resources with economy, society and nature. Taking economic, social, natural and other factors into comprehensive consideration, a four-dimensional water resources carrying capacity evaluation index system was constructed to measure the carrying capacity of water resources through combination weight method, analyze its spatial-temporal variation characteristics by M-K trend method, and predict the future development trend by R/S analysis method. The results show that :(1) the carrying capacity index of water resources of the Yellow River Delta Eco-economic Zone is slowly rising and the overall value is low. (2) The carrying capacity of water resources in coastal areas is good. The carrying capacity index of water resources decreases gradually from coastal areas to inland areas, and the spatial characteristics of pressure index, pressure index, coordination index and management index are obvious. (3) The carrying capacity of water resources was significantly improved in some counties (cities and districts) of Laizhou Bay and the estuary of the Yellow River, while the far-sea areas showed a worsening trend. The coordination index and management index of most regions were improved, while the pressure index was not optimistic, and the pressure index was generally deteriorated. (4) In the future, the carrying capacity of water resources shows a trend of continuous improvement in most areas of the Efficient ecological economic zone of the Yellow River Delta, while Huimin, Yangxin, Lijin, Gaoqing and other areas show a trend of continuous deterioration.

Key words: Yellow River Delta, water resources carrying capacity, M-k trend method, R/S analysis method

摘要：

水资源承载力是反映区域水资源对经济社会发展的支撑能力，是衡量水资源与经济、社会、自然是否和谐发展的重要指标。综合考虑经济、社会、自然等因素，构建“承压-压力-协调-管理”四维水资源承载力评价指标体系，通过组合赋权法测度水资源承载力水平，运用M-K趋势法分析其时空变化特征，并运用R/S分析法预测未来发展趋势。结果表明：（1）黄河三角洲高效生态经济区水资源承载力指数呈缓慢上升趋势，整体数值偏低；（2）沿海地区水资源承载力较好，水资源承载力指数由沿海向内陆逐渐降低，承压指数、压力指数、协调指数、管理指数空间特征明显；（3）水资源承载力在莱州湾及黄河入海口部分县（市、区）显著改善，远海地区呈现显著恶化趋势，协调指数和管理指数有所改善，承压指数不容乐观，压力指数普遍恶化；（4）未来变化中，水资源承载力在黄河三角洲高效生态经济区呈现持续改善趋势，惠民县、阳信县、利津县、高青县等地区呈持续恶化态势。

关键词: 黄河三角洲, 水资源承载力, M-K趋势法, R/S分析法