主管单位：中国科学技术协会
主办单位：中国地理学会
承办单位：华东师范大学
World Regional Studies

World Regional Studies ›› 2023, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (3): 1-16.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2023.03.2021761

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Multi-scenario forecast of city linkage between Southwest China and Southeast Asia under the background of Pan-Asia High-speed Railway construction

Min ZHAO1(), Jun ZHANG1, Peng LI2()   

  1. 1.School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Yunnan University, Kunming 650500, China
    2.School of Business and Tourism Management, Yunnan University, Kunming 650500, China
  • Received:2021-10-17 Revised:2021-12-09 Online:2023-03-15 Published:2023-04-04
  • Contact: Peng LI

泛亚高铁建设背景下中国西南-东南亚城市联系的多情景预测

赵敏1(), 张俊1, 李鹏2()   

  1. 1.云南大学，建筑与规划学院，昆明 650500
    2.云南大学，工商管理与旅游管理学院，昆明 650500
  • 通讯作者: 李鹏
  • 作者简介:赵敏（1973—），女，博士，副教授，硕士生导师，研究方向为城市与区域规划、遗产保护，E-mail： zhaomin@ ynu.edu.cn。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(52268016)

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Abstract:

The construction of high-speed railways has played a fundamental role in advancing the connectivity of the "Belt and Road" strategy. Carrying out research on the prediction of international city linkages in the context of the construction of the Pan-Asia High-speed Railways can provide a basis for decision-making in the construction of transportation infrastructure in connection with facilities. Based on the dynamics and uncertainties of international high-speed railways construction, three different scenarios I, II and III are proposed for the construction of Pan-Asia High-speed Railways in 2025, 2030 and 2040. Using cost weighted distance, weighted average travel time and gravity model, 50 major cities in seven Southeast Asian countries, Yunnan Province and Guangxi Province in China were selected to analyze the spatial-temporal variation of city accessibility and linkage intensity. Results from the status quo to the hypothetical scenario Ⅲ showed that: ①The total time cost to the city pairs will be reduced by 28%, and one-day city pairs will become the dominant part. The gap between the accessibility of cities in the northern and central parts of the region will be narrowed; ②The average time cost of each city will be reduced by 6.8 hours, and the spatial structure of the city time cost will change from a circle layer to a multi-corridor; ③The average value of the linkage intensity of each city will be concentrated in the high linkage strength interval, and the spatial difference in linkage intensity between the seven countries and the two provinces, as well as between the cities, will be reduced; ④The city pairs in the low linkage intensity range will develop from a heterogeneous network to a homogeneous network, and the city pairs in the high linkage intensity range will develop from the northern and southern local area networks to a whole area network.

Key words: Pan-Asia High-speed Railway, city accessibility, city linkage intensity, multi-scenario forecast, Southwest China and Southeast Asia

摘要：

高铁建设对推进 “一带一路”倡议的互联互通发挥了基础作用，开展泛亚高铁建设背景下的国际间城市联系预测研究，可为设施联通中的交通基础设施建设提供决策依据。基于国际高铁建设的动态性和不确定性，针对2025、2030和2040年泛亚高铁建设情况提出Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ三种不同情景，选取东南亚七国与中国云桂两省区的50个主要城市作为研究对象，应用成本加权距离、加权平均出行时间和引力模型，分析城市可达性和联系强度的时空变化。结果发现从现状情景到情景Ⅲ是最优解：①城市对时间成本总值将压缩28.0%，一日达城市对成为主体，区域北部与中部的城市对可达性差距缩小；②各城市时间成本平均值将减少6.8 h，城市时间成本的空间结构由圈层式转变为多廊式；③各城市联系强度平均值向高联系强度区间集聚，研究区内城市间联系强度的空间差异缩小；④低联系强度区间的城市对由非均质网络发展为均质网络，高联系强度区间的城市对由北、南部局域网发展为全域网。

关键词: 泛亚高铁, 城市可达性, 城市联系强度, 多情景预测, 中国西南-东南亚