Abstract:

With the compression of spatial and temporal distance, the actual service population has increasingly become a new category of territorial spatial planning, urban planning and management response. Based on the town-ness and city-ness perspective of the central flow theory, we refined the systematic concept of the actual service population, constructed the framework system for estimating the actual service population, and took 35 metropolises as examples to research the scale structure and spatial-temporal characteristics. The conclusions are as follows :(1) The actual service population should be the average daily population in need of transportation, municipal, commercial and other basic urban services and administrative management in the city, including the permanent population living in the local area for more than half a year and the short-term visitor in the city where the local stay is ' more than one day and less than six months. (2) Integrated traditional statistical data such as population, tourism, transportation and Tencent migration data, took the differentiated demand of population for urban services as the breakthrough point, taking the demand of the permanent population as the benchmark, and converting the short-term visitor into the permanent population, a full-aperture population measurement framework system for the actual service population was constructed. The actual serving population coefficient of 35 metropolises was between 1.09 and 1.36, with an average of 1.19. (3) The annual change of the short-term resident population in China presents the spatiotemporal characteristics of "M" shape annual change and megalopolis directivity, while the inter-city short-term resident population presents the daily change and holiday characteristics of "big wave peak, small sawtooth" shape. This population flow presents a "diamond structure" with Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen-Guangzhou, Chengdu-Chongqing and Wuhan as the apex.

Key words: actual service population, central flow theory, short-term visitor, spacio-temporal characteristic, Tencent migration

摘要：

随着时空距离的压缩，城市实际服务人口日益成为空间规划、城市规划和管理响应的新范畴。基于中心流理论的“乡镇性+城市性”视角，丰富了实际服务人口的大数据内涵，构建了实际服务人口测算方法，开展了我国35个大城市实际服务人口的规模结构及时空特征研究。结论如下：（1）实际服务人口为本市需提供居住、商服、就业、交通、休憩娱乐等城市基本服务以及公共管理的日均实有人口，包含在本地居住半年以上的常住人口和本地停留“1天以上、半年以下”的城市累计服务的短期驻留人口。（2）融合人口、旅游、交通等部门性统计数据及腾讯迁徙数据，以人口对城市服务的差异化需求为切入点，以常住人口的需求为基准，将短期驻留人口折算为实际服务人口，构建了实际服务人口的全口径人口测算方法。35个大城市的实际服务人口系数介于1.09和1.36之间，均值为1.19。（3）入境短期驻留人口呈现“M”形年内变化及特大城市指向性等时空特征，主要来源于港澳台、韩国和日本，其中69.99%的入境短期驻留人口流入东部沿海城市；城际短期驻留人口呈现“大波峰、小锯齿”形的日常变化及节假日特征，人口流动呈现以北京、上海、深圳-广州、成都-重庆、武汉为顶点构成的“菱形”结构。

关键词: 实际服务人口, 流空间, 短期驻留, 时空特征, 腾讯迁徙