Abstract:

Both trade and investment are important economic linkages between countries. Geopolitical conflicts may have great impact on economic linkages, while little is known how trade and investment respond to geopolitical conflict differently. Based on monthly data of January 2012 - December 2013 of China's import and annual data of 2003-2019 China's outward direct investment (OFDI), this paper uses the synthetic control method to investigate the impact of the South China Sea (SCS) arbitration case on China's import from the Philippines and China's OFDI to the Philippines. The empirical results show that the SCS arbitration case did not have significanteffect on China's import from the Philippines, but it decreased China's OFDI to the Philippinessignificantly since 2013. The results passed several robust checks. The results implicatethat there is no evidence that China responded to the SCS arbitration case with trade sanctions.However, in terms of rising geopolitical uncertainty caused by the SCS arbitration case, China'sfirms decreased OFDI to the Philippines significantly, which may further impact economic developmentof the Philippines caused by the SCS arbitration case initiated by itself.

Key words: geopolitical dispute, South China Sea Arbitration Case, import, outward foreign direct investment, synthetic control method

摘要：

贸易和投资是国家间经济联系的主要形式。地缘政治争端会对双边经济联系产生影响，然而，关于其对贸易和投资的差异影响目前研究不足。本文主要基于2012年1月至2013年12月中国进口月度数据和2003—2019年中国对外直接投资年度数据，采用合成控制方法，考察了南海仲裁案对中国从菲律宾进口和中国对菲律宾外商直接投资的影响。实证结果表明，南海仲裁案对中国从菲律宾的进口没有显著影响，但2013—2019年中国对菲律宾的外商直接投资显著减少，并且通过改变控制池国家、改变事前结果选择和更改估计方法等一系列稳健性检验，结果依然显著。研究结果显示，没有充分证据表明中国因南海仲裁案对菲律宾实施了贸易制裁，但由于南海仲裁案增加了地缘政治不确定性，导致中国企业大幅减少了对菲律宾的直接投资，这可能会进一步影响菲律宾因南海仲裁案而引发的经济发展问题。

关键词: 地缘争端, 南海仲裁案, 进口, 对外直接投资, 合成控制法