Research on the impact of free trade pilot zones on pollution reduction and carbon reduction

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2025.02.20230885

Abstract

Abstract:

Pilot free trade zone is an important initiative for comprehensively deepening reform and expanding opening up in the new era, and under the constraint of the "double carbon" target, the ecological environment becomes the competitiveness and development foundation of the pilot free trade zone. Based on the panel data of 282 cities in China from 2007 to 2021, the impacts, mechanisms and spatial spillover effects of the establishment of the Pilot Free Trade Zone on air pollution and carbon emissions are systematically investigated by constructing multi-period DID and spatial DID models. The study finds that: ① The establishment of FTZs promotes the reduction of pollution and carbon emissions in cities, and this conclusion still holds after a series of robustness tests; ② The results of the mechanism analysis show that FTZs can reduce the levels of air pollution and carbon emissions through technological innovations and foreign direct investment, but only reduce carbon emissions through "de-industrialization"; ③ Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the pollution and carbon reduction effect of FTZs will be more obvious in the eastern region and environmentally friendly FTZs; ④ The establishment of FTZs has a significant effect on improving the air pollution situation of neighboring non-pilot cities, and the optimal policy spillover effect scope is 50-150km. Therefore, the top-level design of FTZs should be improved in the future, and the ecological requirements should be incorporated into them, in order to give full play to the role of driving green and sustainable development of the cities. and sustainable development of the city.

Key words: Free Trade Zone, air pollution and carbon emission reduction, multi-period DID model, spatial DID model

摘要：

自由贸易试验区是新时代全面深化改革和扩大开放的重要举措，在“双碳”目标约束下，生态环境成为自由贸易试验区的竞争力和发展基础。基于2007—2021年中国282个城市的面板数据，通过构建多期DID和空间DID模型，系统考察了自由贸易试验区设立对大气污染和碳排放的影响、作用机制及空间溢出效应。研究发现：①自贸区的设立促进了城市减污降碳，且经过一系列稳健性检验后该结论依然成立；②机制分析结果表明，自贸区能够通过技术创新和外商直接投资来降低大气污染与碳排放水平，但通过“去工业化”仅能降低碳排放；③异质性分析发现自贸区的减污降碳效果在东部地区、环保型自贸区更为明显；④自贸区的设立对邻近非试点城市的大气污染状况具有显著的改善作用，且最佳政策溢出效应为50~150 km。因此，未来应持续完善自贸区的顶层设计，将生态环境要求纳入其中，以充分发挥其对城市绿色、可持续发展的驱动作用。

关键词: 自贸区, 减污降碳, 多期DID模型, 空间DID模型

Liming XIAO, Ying ZHANG. Research on the impact of free trade pilot zones on pollution reduction and carbon reduction[J]. World Regional Studies, 2025, 34(2): 98-113.

肖黎明, 张颖. 自由贸易试验区对减污降碳的影响效应研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2025, 34(2): 98-113.

Figures/Tables 14

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变量分类	符号	观测值	单位	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
被解释变量	lnCO₂	4 230	万吨	6.075 7	1.160 6	2.116 8	10.798 8
被解释变量	lnE	4 230	吨	10.826 0	1.114 4	5.904 7	14.724 4
解释变量	DID	4 230	—	0.044 9	0.207 1	0.000 0	1.000 0
控制变量	lnpgdp	4 230	元	10.544 3	0.766 4	8.125 8	13.185 1
	lnpopu	4 230	万人	5.879 7	0.697 1	2.898 1	8.136 2
	lngov	4 230	%	2.828 5	0.455 7	1.449 8	5.000 7
	lninv	4 230	%	4.321 0	0.563 1	0.040 0	6.581 6
	lnele	4 230	亿千瓦时	4.813 7	0.927 6	0.994 9	7.467 2
	lnedu	4 230	人	4.707 8	1.002 1	0.693 1	7.165 5
	lnfin	4 230	%	5.366 7	0.428 9	4.025 4	7.664 0
	lncons	4 230	元	9.500 8	0.831 7	6.025 7	12.019 5
机制变量	patent	4 230	万件	0.547 1	1.516 8	0.000 5	27.917 7
	dlabor	4 230	—	0.565 9	0.141 3	0.156 0	0.955 4
	fdi	4 230	百亿元	0.601 5	1.440 1	7.20e^-06	21.758 3

变量分类	符号	观测值	单位	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
被解释变量	lnCO₂	4 230	万吨	6.075 7	1.160 6	2.116 8	10.798 8
被解释变量	lnE	4 230	吨	10.826 0	1.114 4	5.904 7	14.724 4
解释变量	DID	4 230	—	0.044 9	0.207 1	0.000 0	1.000 0
控制变量	lnpgdp	4 230	元	10.544 3	0.766 4	8.125 8	13.185 1
	lnpopu	4 230	万人	5.879 7	0.697 1	2.898 1	8.136 2
	lngov	4 230	%	2.828 5	0.455 7	1.449 8	5.000 7
	lninv	4 230	%	4.321 0	0.563 1	0.040 0	6.581 6
	lnele	4 230	亿千瓦时	4.813 7	0.927 6	0.994 9	7.467 2
	lnedu	4 230	人	4.707 8	1.002 1	0.693 1	7.165 5
	lnfin	4 230	%	5.366 7	0.428 9	4.025 4	7.664 0
	lncons	4 230	元	9.500 8	0.831 7	6.025 7	12.019 5
机制变量	patent	4 230	万件	0.547 1	1.516 8	0.000 5	27.917 7
	dlabor	4 230	—	0.565 9	0.141 3	0.156 0	0.955 4
	fdi	4 230	百亿元	0.601 5	1.440 1	7.20e^-06	21.758 3

变量	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
变量	lnCO₂	lnCO₂	lnE	lnE
DID	－0.213^***(－3.480)	－0.205^***(－3.370)	－0.230^***(－2.990)	－0.231^***(－3.060)
lnpgdp		0.497^***(4.080)		0.086(0.890)
lnpopu		0.586^***(3.430)		0.150(0.730)
lngov		－0.014(－0.150)		0.006(0.060)
lninv		－0.062(－1.620)		－0.034(－0.950)
lnele		0.172^**(2.170)		0.226^***(3.370)
lnedu		－0.001(－0.040)		0.003(0.090)
lnfin		0.123(0.910)		0.006(0.070)
lncons		0.039(0.630)		0.042(0.680)
常数项	5.745^***(276.850)	－3.994^*(－1.760)	11.371^***(421.340)	8.332^***(3.860)
City	YES	YES	YES	YES
Year	YES	YES	YES	YES
N	4 230	4 230	4 230	4 230
adj.R²	0.259	0.296	0.729	0.733

变量	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
变量	lnCO₂	lnCO₂	lnE	lnE
DID	－0.213^***(－3.480)	－0.205^***(－3.370)	－0.230^***(－2.990)	－0.231^***(－3.060)
lnpgdp		0.497^***(4.080)		0.086(0.890)
lnpopu		0.586^***(3.430)		0.150(0.730)
lngov		－0.014(－0.150)		0.006(0.060)
lninv		－0.062(－1.620)		－0.034(－0.950)
lnele		0.172^**(2.170)		0.226^***(3.370)
lnedu		－0.001(－0.040)		0.003(0.090)
lnfin		0.123(0.910)		0.006(0.070)
lncons		0.039(0.630)		0.042(0.680)
常数项	5.745^***(276.850)	－3.994^*(－1.760)	11.371^***(421.340)	8.332^***(3.860)
City	YES	YES	YES	YES
Year	YES	YES	YES	YES
N	4 230	4 230	4 230	4 230
adj.R²	0.259	0.296	0.729	0.733

变量	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)
变量	交乘项	lnCO₂	lnE	lnCO₂	lnE	lnCO₂	lnE
DID	－4.809^***	－0.178^**	－0.181^*	－0.216^***	－0.245^***	－0.203^***	－0.230^***
DID	(－5.410)	(－2.460)	(－1.880)	(－3.430)	(－3.230)	(－3.120)	(－2.800)
常数项	－63.630^**	－3.519	9.060^***	－4.163^*	8.124^***	－3.845^*	8.560^***
常数项	(－2.170)	(－1.600)	(3.970)	(－1.880)	(3.770)	(－1.670)	(3.940)
控制变量	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES
City	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES
Year	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES
N	4 230	3 512	3 512	4 230	4 230	4 170	4 170
adj.R²	0.198	0.271	0.746	0.300	0.736	0.299	0.729