Suitability evaluation and prosperity path of border towns under the perspective of

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2025.05.20230511

Abstract

Abstract:

Constructing an analytical framework for scientifically classifying the development types of border towns and implementing classified policies is the theoretical basis for accurately promoting "Prospering the Border and Enriching the People", and can provide a practical basis for refining the main functional zoning of land space in border areas. Taking the border towns in Guangxi as the research object, based on multi-source data, this paper used kernel density estimation, grid cost weighted distance method, gravity model to evaluate the development suitability of border towns and classify them scientifically, and then put forward the path of differentiated border revitalization. The results show that: ① The border towns formed a "two high-four low" economic agglomeration area, which was a circle diffusion structure, and the allocation of regional resources needed to be strengthened and optimized. The spatial accessibility of border towns was significantly different, which was affected by natural terrain and traffic network. ②The radiation driving degree of border towns was weak, the overall gravity intensity was at a medium-low level, and the development suitability generally presented a "northwest low-central south high" layout. The regionally coordinated development had great potential. ③ Based on the comprehensive evaluation of resource endowment, regional economy, traffic location and infrastructure, the border towns in Guangxi were divided into five types: core strong border, large-scale construction border, optimized development border, trade border and ecological nourishment border. The overall development suitability of the border towns needs to be further improved. It is urgent to promote the development of the border trade economy by relying on the background advantages and socio-economic conditions of the border towns.

Key words: Prospering the Border and Enriching the People, development suitability, type identification, prosperity path, border towns, Guangxi

摘要：

构建科学划分沿边乡镇发展类型并进行分类施策的分析框架是精准推进“兴边富民”的理论基础，可为边境地区细化国土空间主体功能分区提供实践依据。以广西沿边乡镇为研究对象，基于多源数据，采用核密度估计、栅格成本加权距离法、引力模型等方法对沿边乡镇进行发展适宜性评价与科学分类，提出差异化的沿边发展振兴路径。结果表明：①广西沿边乡镇形成“两高-四低”的经济聚集区，整体呈圈层扩散结构，沿边区域资源配置亟须加强和优化。沿边乡镇间的空间可达性差异显著，主要受自然地形与交通路网的共同作用。②沿边各乡镇之间发展的辐射带动程度较弱，总体引力强度处于中低水平，发展适宜性呈现“西北低-中南高”的空间格局，区域协同发展具有较大潜力。③基于资源禀赋、区域经济、交通区位和基础设施的综合效应，将广西沿边乡镇划分为核心强边、规模建边、优化兴边、边境贸易和生态富边等5种类型。沿边乡镇整体发展适宜性有待进一步提升，亟须依托各乡镇资源基底和社会经济条件，探索振兴路径，从而促进边贸经济发展。

关键词: “兴边富民”, 发展适宜性, 类型识别, 振兴路径, 沿边乡镇, 广西

Pengcheng WANG, Shaokun LIU, Guobin MA, Rucheng LU. Suitability evaluation and prosperity path of border towns under the perspective of "Prospering the Border and Enriching the People": A case study of Guangxi border towns[J]. World Regional Studies, 2025, 34(5): 164-177.

王鹏程, 刘少坤, 马国斌, 陆汝成. “兴边富民”视角下沿边乡镇发展适宜性评价及振兴路径[J]. 世界地理研究, 2025, 34(5): 164-177.

Figures/Tables 7

Fig.1 Framework of theoretical analysis

Tab.1 Evaluation index system of the development suitability of border towns

要素层	指标层	指标解释	效应预测	权重
要素层	指标层	指标解释	效应预测	熵值法	德尔菲法	综合
资源禀赋	地形位指数	由DEM数据提取高程与坡度综合计算，公式为：TPI=lg[(E/E'+1)×(S/S'+1)]，其中E为任一点高程值，E'为平均高程值，S为任一点坡度值，S'为平均坡度值	-	0.021 3	0.035 6	0.028 5
	粮食产量	表征沿边乡镇农业生产水平	+	0.055 3	0.084 2	0.069 8
	植被覆盖强度	由ENVI计算NDVI获取	-	0.028 7	0.012 3	0.020 5
	生物多样性指数	表征沿边乡镇生态系统调节服务，等于平均植被净初级生产力×平均降水量×平均气温×海拔因子	+	0.048 6	0.061 7	0.055 2
	水土流失率	表征沿边乡镇生态系统敏感性，公式为： $S E = R × K × L S × C 4$ ，其中，R为降雨侵蚀力因子，K为土壤可蚀性因子，LS为坡长坡度，C为植被覆盖因子	-	0.045 2	0.039 4	0.042 3
	区域碳排放	土地利用直接碳排放和间接碳排放测算^[27]	-	0.041 6	0.018 1	0.029 9
经济社会	人类活动强度	通过处理NPP-VIRRS夜间灯光数据获取	+	0.056 9	0.041 6	0.049 3
	城镇化率	沿边乡镇居住人口/总人口	+	0.039 9	0.045 5	0.042 7
	外贸依存度	进出口总额/GDP^[28]	+	0.055 7	0.040 8	0.048 3
	外资依存度	利用外资额/固定资产投资额^[28]	+	0.023 6	0.023 8	0.023 7
	旅游外汇收入占比	旅游外汇收入/旅游总收入	+	0.036 1	0.046 5	0.041 3
	沿边走私案件占比	研究团队实地调研相关部门获取	-	0.037 3	0.025 2	0.031 3
区位条件	沿边乡镇路网密度	公路里程/乡镇面积	+	0.074 5	0.080 3	0.077 4
	乡(镇)政府与县道距离	由ArcGIS近邻表计算	-	0.043 1	0.041 7	0.042 4
	乡(镇)政府与县政府距离	由ArcGIS两点距离计算	-	0.038 1	0.040 4	0.039 3
	乡镇至一级公路距离	由ArcGIS近邻表计算	-	0.042 5	0.054 3	0.048 4
	乡(镇)政府与边境线距离	由ArcGIS近邻表计算	-	0.032 9	0.028 9	0.030 9
基础设施	沿边教育覆盖率	根据中、小学校POI数据核密度搜索半径2 km面积/乡镇面积的比例计算	+	0.056 9	0.057 9	0.057 4
	沿边便民覆盖率	根据便民设施POI数据核密度搜索半径 2 km面积/乡镇面积的比例计算	+	0.032 1	0.045 2	0.038 7
	沿边医疗覆盖率	根据医院诊所POI数据核密度搜索半径 2 km面积/乡镇面积的比例计算	+	0.050 8	0.053 1	0.052 0
	沿边建设开发强度	以建设用地面积、产出强度、人口承载作为表征^[29]，等于单位建设面积+单位建设用地人口占比+地均二、三产业产值	+	0.074 3	0.074 9	0.074 6
	沿边口岸运行水平	结合沿边口岸数量与口岸级别加权赋值^[28]	+	0.064 6	0.048 6	0.056 6

Tab.1 Evaluation index system of the development suitability of border towns

要素层	指标层	指标解释	效应预测	权重
要素层	指标层	指标解释	效应预测	熵值法	德尔菲法	综合
资源禀赋	地形位指数	由DEM数据提取高程与坡度综合计算，公式为：TPI=lg[(E/E'+1)×(S/S'+1)]，其中E为任一点高程值，E'为平均高程值，S为任一点坡度值，S'为平均坡度值	-	0.021 3	0.035 6	0.028 5
	粮食产量	表征沿边乡镇农业生产水平	+	0.055 3	0.084 2	0.069 8
	植被覆盖强度	由ENVI计算NDVI获取	-	0.028 7	0.012 3	0.020 5
	生物多样性指数	表征沿边乡镇生态系统调节服务，等于平均植被净初级生产力×平均降水量×平均气温×海拔因子	+	0.048 6	0.061 7	0.055 2
	水土流失率	表征沿边乡镇生态系统敏感性，公式为： $S E = R × K × L S × C 4$ ，其中，R为降雨侵蚀力因子，K为土壤可蚀性因子，LS为坡长坡度，C为植被覆盖因子	-	0.045 2	0.039 4	0.042 3
	区域碳排放	土地利用直接碳排放和间接碳排放测算^[27]	-	0.041 6	0.018 1	0.029 9
经济社会	人类活动强度	通过处理NPP-VIRRS夜间灯光数据获取	+	0.056 9	0.041 6	0.049 3
	城镇化率	沿边乡镇居住人口/总人口	+	0.039 9	0.045 5	0.042 7
	外贸依存度	进出口总额/GDP^[28]	+	0.055 7	0.040 8	0.048 3
	外资依存度	利用外资额/固定资产投资额^[28]	+	0.023 6	0.023 8	0.023 7
	旅游外汇收入占比	旅游外汇收入/旅游总收入	+	0.036 1	0.046 5	0.041 3
	沿边走私案件占比	研究团队实地调研相关部门获取	-	0.037 3	0.025 2	0.031 3
区位条件	沿边乡镇路网密度	公路里程/乡镇面积	+	0.074 5	0.080 3	0.077 4
	乡(镇)政府与县道距离	由ArcGIS近邻表计算	-	0.043 1	0.041 7	0.042 4
	乡(镇)政府与县政府距离	由ArcGIS两点距离计算	-	0.038 1	0.040 4	0.039 3
	乡镇至一级公路距离	由ArcGIS近邻表计算	-	0.042 5	0.054 3	0.048 4
	乡(镇)政府与边境线距离	由ArcGIS近邻表计算	-	0.032 9	0.028 9	0.030 9
基础设施	沿边教育覆盖率	根据中、小学校POI数据核密度搜索半径2 km面积/乡镇面积的比例计算	+	0.056 9	0.057 9	0.057 4
	沿边便民覆盖率	根据便民设施POI数据核密度搜索半径 2 km面积/乡镇面积的比例计算	+	0.032 1	0.045 2	0.038 7
	沿边医疗覆盖率	根据医院诊所POI数据核密度搜索半径 2 km面积/乡镇面积的比例计算	+	0.050 8	0.053 1	0.052 0
	沿边建设开发强度	以建设用地面积、产出强度、人口承载作为表征^[29]，等于单位建设面积+单位建设用地人口占比+地均二、三产业产值	+	0.074 3	0.074 9	0.074 6
	沿边口岸运行水平	结合沿边口岸数量与口岸级别加权赋值^[28]	+	0.064 6	0.048 6	0.056 6

Tab.2 Cost values of main road networks

参数	铁路	高速公路	国道	省道	县道	乡道
速度/（km/h）	90	100	80	60	40	20
时间成本/min	0.020	0.018	0.023	0.030	0.045	0.090

Tab.3 Cost values of slope and land use types

参数	土地利用类型						坡度
参数	耕地	林地	草地	水域	建设用地	未利用地	＜10°	10°~20°	＞20°
速度/(km/h)	10	2	15	5	30	1	按土地利用类型赋值	2	1
时间成本/min	0.18	0.90	0.12	0.09	0.06	1.80	按土地利用类型赋值	0.90	1.80

Fig.3 Development analysis map of Guangxi border towns

Tab.4 Types and main features of border towns

乡镇类型	代码	辐射等级	数量/比例	主要特征
核心强边类	HHHH	极高高度	3 / 10.00%	经济吸引力颇高，人流集聚且经济活力较高，自然资源本底优势明显；社会生产活动频繁，内部发展整治动力十足，外在人才需求较大，区域辐射带动力强劲；公共服务基础设施覆盖范围广，地理区位优越，发展动力足，能够全方位带动经济发展
规模建边类	LLHL	高度中度	8 / 26.66%	交通区位条件优势较大，开发建设适宜性较高，但人类活动强度一般；具有较强的规模优势，建设用地需求量较大，各类教育、医疗等基础设施具有一定的完备度，为建设用地规模扩张、沿边开发建设奠定了基础
优化兴边类	HLLL HLLH HLHL	高度低度	5 / 16.67%	社会经济活力较低；具有一定的农业发展经济基础，资源禀赋条件较优；农业生产条件较好，农产品对外供给量较大，但基础设施完备程度较低，区位条件较差
边境贸易类	LHHL LHHH	高度中度	5 / 16.67%	紧邻陆地口岸及贸易场所，在交通运输、边贸往来、人文交流等方面具有较大的优势；地形地貌条件宜产宜业，经济活跃，便民设施条件及区位条件良好；边民互市商品落地加工成效显著，拥有一定数量的对外交通要道和贸易口岸
生态富边类	HLLL LLLL	中度低度	9 / 30.00%	人类活动强度较低，森林生物资源充沛，具备良好的生态本底；交通区位条件优势较差，核心辐射力较低，需依靠周边乡镇的资源与经济带动发展；部分区域地形较缓，休闲设施建设适宜性较高，具备一定的康养行业及自然旅游发展潜力

Fig.4 Classification of Guangxi border towns

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