Abstract:

Under the strategic competition between China and the United States, the trend of the United States to contain China with polar affairs has intensified. Accurately examining the cognition of US think tanks on China's participation in Antarctic governance will help to gain insights into the US current strategic judgment and future decision-making direction, and thus provide references for China's correct response. This paper selects 13 representative papers from 8 US think tanks as samples and analyzes the main perceptions of US think tanks on China's participation in Antarctic governance and their characteristics, causes and impacts. This study shows that, based on many core issues of the current Antarctic governance, the US think tanks' understanding of China's participation in Antarctic governance are dominated by negative conclusions, reflecting the zero-sum game thinking of "interest-struggle" and the generalization and absolutization of American geo-security logic, and the misunderstanding and distortion of the facts. These negative perceptions will influence the decision-making of the US government and the attitudes of other participating countries, and affect the objectivity and impartiality of Antarctic governance. Based on above perceptions, this paper suggests that China should strengthen the study and judgment of the US think tanks on Antarctic-related issues, take a dialectical view of the cognition of US think tanks, promote the construction and dissemination of China's Antarctic discourse, and strengthen multi-level exchanges and cooperation to increase trust, so as to realize a powerful breakthrough toward the "China's Antarctica Threat".

Key words: US think tanks, Antarctic governance, Antarctic Treaty System, China-US strategic competition

摘要：

在中美战略竞争的总体态势下，美国利用南北极事务遏制中国的趋势持续加剧，准确研判美国智库对中国参与南极治理的认知，有助于洞悉美国当前战略并评判未来的决策走向，从而为中国的正确应对提供参考。以美国8所智库的13篇代表性文献作为样本，梳理其对中国参与南极治理的主要认知，并分析其特点、成因与影响，研究表明：美国智库基于当前南极治理的众多核心议题，对中国参与南极治理的认知以负面结论为主，体现“利益-斗争”的零和博弈思维，反映出美国地缘安全逻辑的泛化与绝对化，是对客观事实的误解与歪曲；这些负面认知或将进而影响美国政府的决策及其他参与国的态度，并影响南极治理的客观公正性。基于此，中国应加强对美国智库涉南极议题的研判，辩证地看待美国智库的认知，推进中国南极话语的建构与传播，在智库交流等方面强化合作以增信释疑，以此实现“中国南极威胁论”的有力破局。

关键词: 美国智库, 南极治理, 南极条约体系, 中美战略竞争