Study on the correlation between employment structure and economic development in the Great Lakes Region of Africa

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2025.07.20240257

Abstract

Abstract:

To explore the coordinated relationship between the employed population and economic development in the Great Lakes region of Africa from 2000 to 2020, geographic concentration, the coupled coordination model, and random forests are used to systematically reveal the mechanism of interactions between the structure of the region's employed population and its economic development.The results are as follows: ① The analysis of industrial structure deviation shows that there is a significant imbalance in the development of industries in the region, with a general surplus of labor in agriculture and insufficient employment opportunities in industry, and uneven development capacity in the service sector, pointing to the necessity of structural adjustment;② The high degree of consistency in the geographic concentration of the economy and the employed population reveals the decisive influence of geographic location on the distribution of economic activities and employment, providing a spatially directed reference for regional development strategies; ③ Analysis of the degree of coupling coordination shows significant interregional differences and evolution over time, showing a spatial distribution that is better in the east than in the west, as well as different trends over time in different countries; ④ There is a significant difference in the impact of gender on economic development in employment in the three industries, with the impact of men far exceeding that of women, emphasizing the importance of promoting gender equality in enhancing the quality of female employment and economic development.This study has significant practical implications for China-Africa cooperation and the "Belt and Road" Initiative, providing empirical evidence and policy recommendations for the economic development of the African Great Lakes region and other similar areas. These findings are of great theoretical and practical importance for understanding the current economic situation in the Great Lakes region and for future policy formulation.

Key words: employed population, economic development structure, deviation degree of industrial structure, geographical concentration, Great Lakes Region of Africa

摘要：

采用地理集中度、耦合协调度模型和随机森林等多元统计分析方法，探讨非洲大湖地区2000—2020年就业人口结构与经济发展的协调关系。主要结论如下：① 产业结构偏离度的分析表明，区域内产业发展存在显著不平衡，农业普遍呈现劳动力过剩而工业就业机会不足，服务业发展能力参差不齐，凸显了结构调整的必要性；② 经济和就业人口的地理集中度高度一致，揭示了地理位置对经济活动和就业分布的决定性影响，为区域发展策略提供了空间指向性的参考；③ 耦合协调度分析显示区域间差异显著，且随时间演变呈现出东部优于西部的空间分布特征，以及不同国家随时间变化的不同趋势；④ 在三次产业就业中，性别对经济发展的影响具有显著差异，男性的影响远超过女性，强调了促进性别平等在提升女性就业质量和经济发展中的重要性。本研究对中非合作和“一带一路”建设具有一定的实践价值，可为非洲大湖地区及类似地区的经济发展提供实证依据和政策建议。

关键词: 就业人口结构, 经济发展, 产业结构偏离度, 地理集中度, 非洲大湖地区

Ming LI, Yanlin LI, Yehua YANG, Anlin LI, Lede NIU. Study on the correlation between employment structure and economic development in the Great Lakes Region of Africa[J]. World Regional Studies, 2025, 34(7): 43-55.

李明, 李彦霖, 杨叶华, 李安林, 牛乐德. 非洲大湖地区就业人口结构与经济发展的关联性研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2025, 34(7): 43-55.

Figures/Tables 10

Fig.1 Schematic map of the study area

Tab.1 Indicators and weights of employment structure and economic development

一级指标	二级指标	权重	一级指标	二级指标	权重
人口子系统	劳动力总数	0.079	经济子系统	农业增加值	0.112
	农业就业人口数	0.073		工业增加值	0.144
	工业就业人口数	0.083		服务业增加值	0.111
	服务业就业人口数	0.091		人均GDP	0.096
	劳动力中男性就业人口数	0.077		政府最终消费支出	0.131
	劳动力中女性就业人口数	0.081		居民人均消费支出	0.086
	农业男性就业人口数	0.073		GDP总量	0.113
	工业男性就业人口数	0.086		农业增加值占比	0.042
	服务业男性就业人口数	0.093		工业增加值占比	0.054
	农业女性就业人口数	0.073		服务业增加值占比	0.016
	工业女性就业人口数	0.099
	服务业女性就业人口数	0.093

Fig.2 The layout map of the deviation degree of industrial structure in the Great Lakes region

Fig.3 Spatio-temporal variation map of economic geographical concentration in the Great Lakes region

Fig.4 Spatio-temporal variation of geographic concentration of employed population in the Great Lakes region

Fig.5 The trend of coordinated development of employed population and economy in the Great Lakes region

Fig.6 Coupling and coordinated distribution map of employed population types and economic development in the Great Lakes region

Fig.7 The test results of the significance of the types of employed population to economic development

Fig.8 The accuracy of Stochastic Forest Model based on the types of employed population in economic development

Fig.9 The influence factors of different gender employment population types on economic development

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