Abstract:

This article focuses on the degree of an economy's export development pattern, which refers to the referentiality of an economy's export development pattern in promoting economic development in other economies. It proposes a set of metrics that leverage time-series similarity analysis to measure this degree from various perspectives and to explain economic development of economies. Using international trade data that covers 217 economies and 96 product categories, we employ relative comparative advantage as the measure of export advantage of an economy in each product category, owing to its better comparability. And then the export development paths of each economy are constructed based on the series of relative comparative advantage over the years. Subsequently, we calculate the similarity in export development paths between economies. By setting each economy as the benchmark economy in turn, regression analysis is used to explore the relationship between the similarity in export development paths relative to the benchmark economy and the economic growth rate of other economies. The degree of the benchmark economy's export development pattern is then measured based on coefficient of determination and regression coefficients derived from the regression analysis. For some benchmark economies, the economic growth rates of other economies can be accurately explained by the similarity in their export development paths. The metric measuring the degree of export development pattern, based on the coefficient of determination, reveals a significant negative correlation with the population size of economies. Furthermore, another type of metric for measuring the degree of export development pattern, assessed through the consistency of regression coefficients, can effectively explain the differences observed in the Economic Complexity Index and Economic Fitness among various economies. These findings imply the existence of a potential export development path that provides greater explanatory power for economic development, offering new cognitive perspectives for exploring the differences in export development among economies and understanding the relationship between international trade and economic development.

Key words: degree of export development pattern, export development paths, relative comparative advantage, similarity analysis of time series, correlation analysis

摘要：

基于覆盖世界217个经济体的96个产品类别的国际贸易数据，本文采用可比较性更优的相对性比较优势来描述各个经济体在各产品类别上的出口优势性，并用其构建各个经济体的出口发展路径，计算了各经济体之间在出口发展路径上的相似性程度。在此基础上，依次设定各经济体作为基准经济体，通过回归分析来挖掘其他各个经济体相对基准经济体的出口发展路径相似性程度与其自身经济增长速度的关系，并根据该回归分析所得的决定系数和回归系数来定义基准经济体的出口发展模式性程度指标。分析发现，以一部分经济体为基准时，通过出口发展路径相似性程度可以精准地描述各个经济体的经济增长速度；基于决定系数的出口发展模式性程度指标与经济体的人口规模呈现显著负相关，而基于回归系数一致性的出口发展模式性程度指标能够良好地解释各经济体在经济复杂性水平与经济适应度水平上的差异。这些发现表明可能存在一条对经济发展有着更高解释性的出口发展路径，这对挖掘各经济体的出口发展差异、理解国际贸易与经济发展之间的关系提供了新的认知角度。

关键词: 出口发展模式性程度, 出口发展路径, 相对性比较优势, 时间序列相似性分析, 相关性分析