主管单位：中国科学技术协会
主办单位：中国地理学会
承办单位：华东师范大学
World Regional Studies

World Regional Studies ›› 2026, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (2): 186-202.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2026.02.20240244

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Research on the spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of the coupling relationship between new-type urbanization and basic public services in the Yangtze River Delta region

Zi YE1,2,3(), Tianyu LI4, Xiang KONG1,2()   

  1. 1.China Modern Urban Research Center, , East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
    2.College of Geographical Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
    3.Yuhang High School (Linping High School), Hangzhou 311100, China
    4.School of Digital Economics and Management, Suzhou City University, Suzhou 215104, China
  • Received:2024-04-14 Revised:2024-07-17 Online:2026-02-15 Published:2026-02-27
  • Contact: Xiang KONG

长三角地区新型城镇化与基本公共服务耦合关系的时空演化及影响因素

叶梓1,2,3(), 李天宇4, 孔翔1,2()   

  1. 1.华东师范大学，中国现代城市研究中心，上海 200062
    2.华东师范大学，城市与区域科学学院/地理科学学院，上海 200062
    3.余杭高级中学（临平中学），杭州 311100
    4.苏州城市学院数字经济与管理学院，苏州 215104
  • 通讯作者: 孔翔
  • 作者简介:叶梓（1999—），男，硕士研究生，研究方向为经济地理与区域发展，E-mail：51253902016@stu.ecnu.edu.cn。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金面上项目(42271244)

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Abstract:

Promoting the synergistic development of new urbanization and basic public services is a key concern of regional integration and development in the new era. The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region is both an important comprehensive pilot region for new urbanization in China and a typical demonstration region for the development of equalization of basic public services, and the coordinated development of the two is of great significance for boosting the process of regional integration in the YRD region. This study measures the levels of new urbanization and basic public services in 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2011 to 2020 by means of a modified coupled coordination model and spatial correlation analysis, explores the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the coupled coordination relationship, and finally explores the influencing factors by using a panel double fixed-effects model. The results show that: ① During the study period, both new urbanization and the level of basic public services in the Yangtze River Delta region show an increasing trend, and there is synchronization in the spatio-temporal evolution of the two. ② The degree of coupling and coordination between the two has been increasing during the study period, but the number of cities with low new urbanization and low basic public services still accounts for the majority of cities, and the overall level of coordinated development still needs to be optimized. ③ There are more obvious spatial differences and spatial correlation characteristics in the coupling coordination degree. The spatial pattern shows the trend of "central coordination - north-south dissonance", and in the spatial correlation, there are high - high agglomeration and low - low agglomeration areas, showing obvious spatial club convergence phenomenon. ④ The results of the analysis of driving factors show that the level of economic development and modernization has a positive effect on the coordinated development of the two, science and education investment has a negative effect, and the influence of government capacity and urban construction investment varies in different provinces.

Key words: new-type urbanization, basic public services, coupled and coordinated development, panel double fixed effects model, Yangtze River Delta region

摘要：

推动新型城镇化与基本公共服务协同发展是新时期区域一体化发展重点关注的内容。长三角地区是我国重要的新型城镇化综合试点地区，也是基本公共服务均等化发展的典型示范区，两者的协调发展对推动长三角区域一体化具有重要意义。研究采用修正的耦合协调模型、空间相关性分析等方法测度了2011—2020年长三角地区41个城市的新型城镇化与基本公共服务水平，探讨其耦合协调关系的时空演化特征，并利用双固定效应模型分析了其影响因素。结果表明：①研究期内，长三角地区新型城镇化与基本公共服务水平均呈上升趋势，两者的时空演变具有同步性；②二者的耦合协调度在研究期内稳步提升，但处于低新型城镇化-低基本公共服务水平的城市仍占多数，总体协调发展水平有待优化；③耦合协调度呈现明显的空间差异和空间关联特征，空间格局上呈“中部协调-南北失调”的态势，在空间关联上存在高-高集聚区和低-低集聚区，表明存在一定程度的空间俱乐部趋同现象；④在影响因素上，经济发展水平与现代化水平对两者的协调发展有正向效应，科教投入具有负向影响，政府能力及城市建设投入的影响存在空间差异。

关键词: 新型城镇化, 基本公共服务, 耦合协调发展, 面板双固定效应模型, 长三角地区