Abstract: Much research on the low-carbon city have weakness in systemically and dynamically estimating the low-carbon level of cites in various regions. This study attempts to fill this gap through establishing a comprehensive causal-effect framework analysis framework, which is the interaction of Driving forces-Pressures-State-Impacts- Responses (DPSIR) between human and the environment. The paper used the socioeconomic data, meteorological data, and carbon estimation data from bottom to top, and calculate the low-carbon development level to examine the low-carbon performance and its spatial differentiation. The results reveal that most of the 288 cities at prefecture level and above in China are at a relatively high carbon level. The low-carbon cities display a gradient distribution from the east, the middle to the west. And the low-carbon cities are clustered in Huhuanyong line, the southeast coastal urban agglomeration and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration. Low-carbon driving forces and low-carbon responses are important factors that determine the low-carbon development level of cities. The cities with higher level of low-carbon driving forces are mainly driven by R&D investment, socio-economic development, clean-energy development and/or urban compact development. The responses from low-carbon technology and low-carbon awareness are much more important to low-carbon city than that form low-carbon institution. Not all the low carbon pilot city have low-carbon performance. Cities with various low-carbon levels should select a local low-carbon development path based on the structural DPSIR inventories.

摘要： 基于社会经济统计数据、气象数据、自下而上的碳排放估算数据，构建城市低碳发展水平评价的动力学分析模型——DPSIR模型，全面评价中国288个地级以上城市的低碳发展水平及空间格局。结果表明，中国288个地级以上城市总体处于相对高碳水平，低碳城市具有东中西“梯度化”分异的区域特点，在空间上形成以胡焕庸线为底边、以东南沿海城市群和京津冀城市群为两翼的“△”型结构。低碳驱动力与低碳响应力是决定城市低碳发展水平的重要因素，高低碳驱动力城市主要有研发驱动型、社会经济发展驱动型、清洁能源发展驱动型、紧凑城市发展驱动型，低碳技术与低碳认知响应力远高于低碳制度响应力对城市低碳发展的作用。不同低碳等级结构的城市应根据DPSIR模型提供的低碳发展结构化清单，结合地方特性，选择因地制宜的低碳发展路径。